Dallas TX Employment Engine Sheds 59,000 Jobs In January Turnover

The Dallas TX employment engine was misfiring as we headed into 2018. Recently revised figures from the Texas Workforce Commission show the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA shedding 59,000 jobs in January. While it is typical for the January numbers to decline after the holiday turnover, the 59,000 jobs lost in January represents the highest seasonal turnover loss in several years. Employment levels were already declining with the December numbers, so this is a development that could be worth watching. We'll know more in a few weeks when we get the February employment data. What is particularly [...]

December Jobs Growth Misses, Wage Growth Still Weak

Yesterday I was musing about the expected rise in inflation and bond yields that so many professional pundits and talking heads are expecting in 2018. That's the story being bantered about on various mainstream cable news puppet shows. Today we received another reality check on that "pent up demand" and overheating labor market story as the December Jobs Report painted a rather lackluster finish to 2017. The BLS Employment Situation showed an increase of 148,000 jobs in December. That's the good news from the establishment survey. The Household survey (Table A) showed an increase of [...]

Dallas TX Employment Grows In September

Dallas TX employment continues to march higher. September brought an increase of 15,600 jobs compared to revised August figures. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA region added 93,600 jobs during the past year according to numbers from the Texas Workforce Commission. The official (goal-seeked) unemployment rate for the Dallas area stood at 3.4 percent in September, below the state average of 4 percent. The Dallas employment sector continues to be tight according to many local economists. Pia Orrenius, a senior economist with the Dallas Fed was "encouraged by the data". Even though Hurricane Harvey caused a drop [...]

Monkey Business – Expert Says Affordable Homes Are Going Away

Affordable homes are going away. With the prospect of rising rates, now is the time to buy a home. That is apparently the opinion of Dr. Luis Torres, a research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M. Torres, in a rather interesting piece in the Houston Business Journal seems to be confident that Houston's real estate market is on the road to recovery:  “I can say this with some certainty that the worst of the downturn is behind us.” I'm not surprised that HBJ would print a piece like this (after all it is [...]

Challenger Gray: Q1 Job Cuts Up 31 Percent YoY, Texas Leads All States By Wide Margin

While many of the pundits here in the Houston are will point to the diversification of the Bayou City, I remain skeptical of the GHP's claim that Houston will add 22,000 jobs by the end of the year. As I detailed in a recent post on Houston area employment, things may get worse in the Houston job market before they get better. Challenger Gray's report on first quarter  2016 job cuts only confirms my suspicions. Q1 2016 job cuts are 31 percent higher than they were a year ago, and we just witnessed the 4th [...]

By | 2017-12-22T02:02:22+00:00 March 31st, 2016|Economy, In the Press, Spin Cycle, Texas Employment|0 Comments

Texas Layoffs Surge In January, More Job Cut Announcements To Come

The latest job cut numbers from Challenger Gray should give pause to those who have been calling a bottom to the recent downturn for the energy sector. Not only did Texas blow all other states out of the water in terms of job cut announcements in January, the YTD layoffs in 2016 point to an accelerating downturn. Challenger noted that the 75,114 job cut announcements for January 2016 was 42 percent higher than a year ago, and the largest January total since 2009. The "lower for longer" theme for energy prices is finally beginning to [...]

BLS: August Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.1% As 94 Million Americans Not In The Labor Force

There's no BS like the BLS. When it comes to meaningless headline data, the official U.S. unemployment rate is about as misleading as you can get. Today the August employment report from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics told us that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Of course the reality is while apparently added 173,000 jobs in August, the real reason the official unemployment rate dropped is because more people were vaporized from the labor force. As noted in the graphic above graciously provided by Professor Anthony Sanders, the U.S. labor force participation rate dropped [...]

By | 2018-02-02T23:39:36+00:00 September 4th, 2015|Economy, Markets, Spin Cycle, Texas Employment|0 Comments

July Job Cuts Reach Highest Level In 4 Years, Texas Still Leads Nation By Wide Margin In 2015

Challenger Gray & Christmas released their July job cut report, and it appears employment cutbacks revved up again during the month of July. Challenger reports there were 105,696 job cuts in July, the highest one-month total in 4 years. What was surprising in the latest report was that more than half of the July cuts came from the U.S. Army via troop and civilian workforce reductions. What's not surprising in the latest report is that Texas still leads the nation for layoffs this year by a wide margin. With oil prices flirting with a new [...]

By | 2015-08-06T14:00:14+00:00 August 6th, 2015|Economy, Energy & Utilities, Spin Cycle, Texas Employment|0 Comments

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Contracts Further In May, Texas Recession Ahead?

The Dallas Fed reported some rather troubling numbers for the Lone Star State today. Manufacturing activity in Texas continues to free fall with the May survey results. Here are the highlights from the May Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey... General Business Activity Index: Down again to -20.8 Production Index: Down to -13.5, (lowest reading in 6 years) New Orders Index: Flat at -14.1 Growth Rate of Orders Index: Flat at -15.2 Capacity Utilization Index: Down to -11.6 Shipments Index: Down to -13.2 Employment Index: Down to -8.2 Hours Worked Index: Down to -11.6 But never fear. [...]

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Again In April As Texas Rig Count Drops 56 Percent YoY

LOL! So much for the spin of low oil prices being good for the Texas economy. The Dallas Fed just reported that Texas manufacturing activity continued to contract in April, with Texas manufacturing activity remaining in negative territory for the 2nd consecutive month. I imagine that negative manufacturing index is ever so slightly related to the 56 percent year-over-year drop in the Texas rig count posted last Friday. It certainly isn't helping the Texas employment sector, with employment in the state dropping at the fastest rate in six years. Here are some of the readings from [...]

By | 2016-05-21T12:07:02+00:00 April 27th, 2015|Economy, Energy & Utilities, In the Press, Spin Cycle|0 Comments