Asset Bubbles

North Texas Home Sales Hit A Wall As Inventory Dries Up

North Texas home sales hit a wall in February as inventory available in the market dried up across the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The Fed-fueled mania gripping the local real estate market is now left searching for support at grossly distorted levels. North Texas home sales declined by 6 percent compared to February of last year. Pending home sales fell 13 percent. The supply of homes available for sale has never been lower according to NTREIS statistics going back 20 years. Inventory in the DFW area now stands at a single month of supply at the [...]

Reckoning Awaits For Inflated North Texas Real Estate Market

The reckoning awaits for the hyper-financialized north Texas real estate market.  It may take a few months for reality to sink in, but the writing is on the wall regardless of the efforts of housing industry pundits and professional economists to downplay the damage. The hopes of a v-shaped recovery are vanishing faster than the toilet paper on the shelves of your local grocery store. Many of the supposed experts, like the PhD economists employed at the Texas Real Estate Center at A&M, have turned a blind eye to the artificial inflation in Texas real [...]

Denton County New Home Sales Spring To Life In March

Denton County new home sales are enjoying a spring revival courtesy of lower mortgage interest rates. Preliminary March data for North Texas shows that home sales rebounded in March, with new home sales driving the action. Buyers were obviously lured off the fence in the DFW area when it came to buying new homes. It also helped that new home builders were keeping price points lower. The average price of new homes in Dallas-Fort Worth still shows to be softening. Pending sales data for March looks a bit weaker than closings, so it will be [...]

Powell Continues FOMC’s Legacy Of Serial Arsonists

The Federal Reserve FOMC announced another Federal Funds rate hike, raising the target rate to 2.5 percent. That was widely anticipated. What the market did not like was a less-than dovish stance from Jerome Powell and his merry band of serial arsonists, as he stuck to the script that everything is awesome in the land of milk and honey. Aside from the drop in 10-year Treasury yields, there are important ramifications for the real estate market as the failures of Federal Reserve policy, and the consequences that come with it, become increasingly evident. Make no [...]

Toll Brothers Net Orders Plunge 13 Percent In Q4

Shares of luxury home builder Toll Brothers fell out of bed today. Toll reported higher net income and higher revenue on a 12 percent increase in home closings for the quarter, but the market sniffed out what some people like myself were anticipating with Toll's latest quarter... a big drop in demand for expensive luxury homes. Toll was clearing out inventory with juicy incentives during the fourth quarter, but net signed contract value plunged 15 percent while net contract units (homes) fell 13 percent. Toll's orders for California nosedived 39 percent. Oops! “In November, we saw [...]

Why Is The Fed Protecting The Stock Market?

The $11 billion increase in the System Open Market Account Holdings report for February 14 has caught the attention of a number of intelligent market watchers for obvious reasons. The Federal Reserve is purportedly in the midst of a significant balance sheet normalization process whereby they are (and plan to to continue) selling large amounts of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities. After amassing a portfolio of over $4.4 trillion, the Fed has used that massive hedge fund to artificially suppress interest rates and foster some serious asset inflation. The Fed was not alone in this [...]

Balance Sheet Unwind Hits Reverse As Interest Paid To Banks Soars

True to form, the Federal Reserve is taking a rather cautious approach to their balance sheet unwind with this week's System Open Market Account (SOMA) report showing an INCREASE of a $million in the Fed's bloated account holdings. So much for unwinding!  If you were wondering how equity markets could be marching to new highs every week in the face of tepid organic economic growth, you have your answer. Today's inflation numbers show that the Federal Reserve still can't seem to generate any inflation in the economy, with core inflation rising only 1.8% year-over-year. Home [...]

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