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Housing Bubbles

Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

By |2022-09-15T14:19:47+00:00September 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton Tx New Homes, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Fed Hikes Rates 50 Basis Points, Punts Balance Sheet Reduction to June 1st

The Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds rate to a range of 0.75-1.00 percent. The 50 basis-point rate hike was largely expected. Powell shot down any talk of a 75 basis-point hike. Jerome Powell also announced that balance sheet reduction would begin June 1st. The FOMC statement. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support [...]

By |2022-05-05T14:02:49+00:00May 5th, 2022|Economy, Housing Market, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Denton County Home Buyers Front-Run Rate Hikes Sending Prices Soaring

Fear of missing out (FOMO) was the theme last month in Denton County Texas as home buyers behaved like irrational humans often do. Buyers jumped into the local housing market front-running the coming Federal Reserve rate hikes. Home prices shattered records as a result. The median price of home rose 25.3% year-over-year to a record $464,000. Average prices rose 23.6% to a record high $554,098. Closed sales were roughly flat compared to last year. That's a testament to how frenzied the activity was given the current backdrop of spiraling interest rates. Pending sales (contracts) fell 10 [...]

By |2022-04-14T14:54:28+00:00April 12th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Rent, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Lease, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Mortgage Rates Breach 5% Mark After Brainard Speech

U.S. mortgage rates breached the critical 5 percent level today. Prepared remarks from FOMC dove Lael Brainard spooked the markets into a tailspin sending yields on the 10-year Treasury above 2.56 percent. Average mortgage interest rates quoted from Mortgage News Daily spiked to 5.02 percent. This is the first time rates have been this high since 2018. You may remember that the fourth quarter of 2018 also saw the stock market and real estate markets come unglued before the Fed stepped in to intervene. Unfortunately for real estate bulls, this time is different. Instead of [...]

By |2022-04-06T11:47:53+00:00April 5th, 2022|Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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New Home Sales Rise in December, But Headwinds Mounting

New home sales were a bit better than expected in December. The Census Bureau reported new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 811,000 units. Previous months were revised lower. The median price of new home came in at $377,700. The average price of new construction contracted in December was $457,300. New home sales are still suffering from supply constraints. Completed inventory remains very low while the number of units technically for sale remains very high. Looking at unadjusted numbers out of the 408,000 homes "for sale" at the end of December [...]

By |2022-01-26T23:54:42+00:00January 26th, 2022|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy, New Home Sales, Politics, Spin Cycle|1 Comment
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Insanity – Denton County Home Prices Go Parabolic

Denton County home prices went parabolic in March. The median price of a Denton County home rose 16 percent from March of last year. Average prices rose 23.5 percent to a new record of $448,566. The number of homes listed for sale in Denton County crashed 71 percent to only 976 properties. That translates to just 0.7 months of inventory at the current pace of sales. The March figures for closed sales show a 10 percent decrease from a year ago. That's despite a relatively easy year-over-year comparison when Covid put the brakes on the [...]

By |2021-04-19T16:51:05+00:00April 12th, 2021|Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates|2 Comments
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North Texas Housing Bubble Gasping For Air

The North Texas housing bubble was gasping for air in December. Inventory continued to dry up across the Dallas Fort Worth market, helping to push median and average home prices up 9.7 percent and 12.3 percent respectively. Prices on a per square foot basis hit fresh new highs in North Texas as 2020 came to a close. Ironically we saw a bevy of Federal Reserve officials calling for more inflation in the economy last week while home prices were posting double-digit year-over-year gains. North Texas home sales were up 16 percent from December of 2019. [...]

By |2021-01-18T12:19:32+00:00January 11th, 2021|Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Mortgages|2 Comments
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Zero-Down Mortgages Return With New Names

Surprise! Zero-down mortgages are back! Just when you thought we had learned the lessons of the subprime mortgage meltdown nearly a decade ago, along come new twists on an old formula. The recipe is pretty simple, and the inevitable outcomes are fairly predictable, yet that won't deter some people from making irrational decisions when it comes to the fear of missing out (FOMO). The latest strategies to put cash-strapped buyers into homes they probably can't afford are similar to crowdfunding. HomeFundMe is an example of one such program where buyers can solicit donations for a [...]

By |2018-07-09T13:08:26+00:00July 9th, 2018|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Housing Market, In the Press, Mortgages, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Federal Reserve Sowed The Seeds Of The Next Housing Downturn

The Federal Reserve is poised to cause yet another housing downturn in the U.S. I'm not talking about a spectacular Lehman style apocalypse mind you, but an honest downturn that will be unavoidable. Today's S&P Case-Shiller home price index showed another rise in Dallas home prices in November. This is essentially lagged data confirming what most prospective DFW home buyers already knew, namely that Dallas area home prices are pretty damn high. The national index showed that U.S. home prices were up 6.2 percent, or roughly three times average U.S. hourly income growth. The BEA [...]

By |2019-04-12T16:19:09+00:00January 30th, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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DFW Home Prices Pushing Limits Of Affordability

DFW home prices have been on a tear during the last 5 years. That begs the question of whether the recent price gains are sustainable. The answer to that inquiry generally boils down to who is selling what. In our hyper-financialized housing market it is not surprising when real estate practitioners or lenders suggest that we are not in a housing bubble. Whether you call it a housing bubble or not, there is no denying that the past decade has seen some dramatic shifts in the real estate market. Dallas/Fort Worth is certainly part of [...]

By |2021-07-05T13:50:00+00:00October 27th, 2017|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Employment, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, International Real Estate, Real Estate, Relocation, Spin Cycle, Texas Home Prices, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Aaron Layman Realtor Denton County Texas Questions? Call me now at
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