DFW New Home Buyers Getting Squeezed By Fed Asset Inflation

By |2020-05-28T10:33:55+00:00May 26th, 2020|Texas Real Estate|

New home buyers in the DFW housing market are getting squeezed. Despite the continued trend of lower overall new home prices, the price buyers are paying on a square foot basis continues to shoot higher. This is particularly the case if you look at the median new home buyer in the Dallas-Fort Worth market. The median price of a new home in the DFW area fell by 3.2 percent in April while the average price of a new home was 4.4 percent lower compared to April 2019. Even with record low mortgage interest rates, Dallas-Fort [...]

Denton County Unemployment Spikes To 12.9% In April

By |2020-05-26T12:07:41+00:00May 26th, 2020|Denton County Employment, Denton County Relocation, DFW Employment, DFW Relocation, Economy, Employment, Relocation, Texas Employment|

Denton County unemployment hit 12.9 percent in April, and the City of Denton saw unemployment spike to 14.1 percent last month. For the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, unemployment rose to 12.8 percent in April. Those were the sobering statistics from the Texas Workforce Commission. The destruction to the North Texas labor force created by the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns is hard to grasp, because the United States hasn't experienced anything similar since the Great Depression. Even after the Great Recession in 2008 U.S. unemployment levels peaked around 10 percent. The May unemployment numbers for Denton County [...]

Coronavirus Hits DFW Home Sales, But Prices Holding Up

By |2020-05-15T12:25:25+00:00May 11th, 2020|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Employment, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Relocation|

DFW home sales took another hit in April. Home sales slid 18 percent during the month of April as the coronavirus took a toll on the Dallas-Fort Worth real restate market. Pending home sales slid even further, falling 24 percent for April. Despite the noticeable seasonal increase in activity during the past few weeks, it appears the spring/summer selling rush we would typically expect is going to be muted by Covid-19 this year. With over 33 million Americans filing for unemployment during the past two months, a downturn in real estate activity should be expected. [...]

U.S. New Home Sales Fall 9.5% To 627,000 SAAR

By |2020-04-24T11:21:15+00:00April 24th, 2020|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Market, Markets, Mortgages, New Home Sales, Texas Real Estate|

The Census Bureau reported new home sales (contracts) for March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 627,000. That was 15.4 percent below the revised February rate and down 9.5% from the same time a year ago. As a reminder, the Census counts a new home sale at the time of contract signing, not the actual closing. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic we actually have a more relevant, forward-looking indicator of new home sales activity, similar to the pending sales metric we would use in the MLS. The median new home sales [...]

Denton County New Home Prices Fall 12 Percent

By |2020-04-19T02:28:45+00:00April 18th, 2020|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Employment, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Employment, Housing Market|

Average new home prices in Denton County were 12 percent lower than the same time a year ago. Updated NTREIS Trends figures show a 7.2 percent decline in the median price for a new home in Denton County while average prices of new construction slid 11.7 percent from March of last year. New home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have been on a continued a downward trend since the summer of 2017. The reason in one word...affordability. The trend of the incredible shrinking new home and lot size throughout the DFW area is going [...]

North Texas Real Estate Gets Coronafied As Fed Nationalizes Bond Market

By |2020-04-12T13:07:14+00:00April 10th, 2020|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Employment, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, Mortgages, Pending Home Sales, Spin Cycle|

North Texas real estate is going to get coronafied, and the coming months will reveal the extent of what looks to be lasting damage for the local real estate market.  The official press release estimates compiled by the A&M RECenter and regurgitated by major media outlets pegged March home sales for a 4 percent increase. It's important to keep in mind these press release numbers are statistical estimates which run off of algorithms accounting for late closings. Sometimes the padding added for late closings or contract activity is overdone, and I believe March is one [...]

Contracts For North Texas Home Purchases Still Shrinking

By |2020-04-03T21:32:14+00:00April 3rd, 2020|Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Employment, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Employment, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Politics, Relocation, Texas Employment|

I have been monitoring the contracts for home purchases in the North Texas area since last week, and the numbers are not encouraging. The number of active option contract properties (listings where the home has gone under contract with a buyer option to back out) continues to shrink. This is not surprising considering the economic backdrop, but it also points to a more prolonged downturn than many in the real estate industry were expecting. Pending sales data for March will not be pretty, but the April data for North Texas home sales could be an [...]

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Crashes, Hit To Texas Housing Market Awaits

By |2020-03-30T17:10:34+00:00March 30th, 2020|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, In the Press, Texas Employment, Texas Real Estate|

The Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for March just crashed to the worst levels since the survey began. The production index cratered from 16.4 to negative 35. New orders dropped to negative 41.3, and the growth rate of new orders index fell to negative 44.9. The employment index fell to negative 23.0, and the hours worked index fell to negative 22.4 "The general business activity index plunged from 1.2 to -70.0, and the company outlook index fell from 3.6 to -65.6. Both March readings are the lowest since the survey began in June 2004." [...]

Market Chaos Hits Mortgage Market, iBuyers Disappear

By |2020-03-25T12:16:51+00:00March 25th, 2020|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, In the Press, Markets, Mortgages, Texas Real Estate|

Chaos is hitting the mortgage markets, and iBuyers have suddenly disappeared from the real estate landscape quicker than a cat on a hot tin roof. The Fed is in utter panic mode, and we are only beginning to find out how fragile the U.S. economy really is. Here's the QE to Infinity announcement from the Fed: "Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy." If you thought the Fed's response to 2008 was extreme, this week's actions by the Federal Reserve make 2008 look tame in comparison. During the height of QE 1, [...]

Reckoning Awaits For Inflated North Texas Real Estate Market

By |2020-03-28T17:13:52+00:00March 21st, 2020|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Energy & Utilities, Housing Market, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate, Relocation, Texas Employment, Texas Home Prices, Texas Real Estate|

The reckoning awaits for the hyper-financialized north Texas real estate market.  It may take a few months for reality to sink in, but the writing is on the wall regardless of the efforts of housing industry pundits and professional economists to downplay the damage. The hopes of a v-shaped recovery are vanishing faster than the toilet paper on the shelves of your local grocery store. Many of the supposed experts, like the PhD economists employed at the Texas Real Estate Center at A&M, have turned a blind eye to the artificial inflation in Texas real [...]