Denton Texas Home Prices and Home Values

Denton Texas home prices are a relative bargain when looking at other home values in the DFW metroplex. Denton Texas homes are generally affordable, and home values have been increasing at a steady pace in recent years. A big part of this is due to the recent growth in Denton County and North Texas where land is still available.

Demand for affordable homes has pushed development outward from both Dallas and Fort Worth job centers. As the saying goes… “Drive until you qualify.” As you will notice in the attached graphics, average home prices within the city of Denton are much more affordable than Denton County in general.

Denton County home prices have increased sharply in recent years. This is partially due to the economic growth of the Denton County region, but also because of the Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injections into asset markets. If you have been shopping for a home in the Denton Texas housing market, you will receive a quick reminder of what asset inflation looks like. The liquidity distortions created a tremendous gap between new and existing home prices, approaching $100,000 at one point.

A Shifting Market

The price difference between new construction and resale homes in Denton was not as severe as the gap seen in Dallas for several reasons. Denton home prices were starting from a lower average base than Dallas. There are also a number of resale properties in Denton with larger than average lots compared to what you would see toward the urban centers of either Dallas or Fort Worth.

The value of many Denton area homes is contained in the land, and not necessarily in the depreciating structure. This is why you see a smaller spread between resale and new home prices in Denton. That spread is smaller still when you are looking at the price per square foot of Denton TX homes. New home builders aren’t being very generous with lot sizes, not because they don’t want to but because they can’t afford to. This is why you see average new home prices at elevated levels even on postage stamp lots which may be only forty or fifty feet wide.

The charts on this site give you an idea of home values in North Texas. These charts include data for Denton, Denton County and the North Texas housing market. I have also have stats on the number of homes for sale in Denton County, prices for new and resale construction, the trend for closed sales, and average days on market. If you are interested in an honest assessment of the market value for your home, just give me a call.

What is the “Value” of My Home?

Many real estate practitioners will attempt to “sell” you a home, often with little understanding of the value contained in the property. That’s just the nature of the sales industry in general. If you are attempting to find the actual value of your home, I would encourage you to give me a call so that I can evaluate your individual circumstances within current market conditions. Without really seeing a home in person, it is impossible to gauge the true value of a property. This is true whether you are talking about the local appraisal district or some third-party aggregator spitting out a supposed home “value” based on flawed baseline averages. Any algorithm or formula attempting to capture the true value of your home is going to be flawed without a real on-site evaluation. Remember Zillow’s billion dollar catastrophe (loss) when they decided to flip homes? That’s a great example.

Denton TX home prices have certainly been affected by the Fed’s distortion of asset markets. This is true for home prices across North Texas. The perversion of home prices is now a national problem. As we saw in the last housing crash, a gross distortion of mortgage credit availability created a massive bubble in the housing market. The historical series of mortgage credit availability shows just how far out of control things really were before the housing market collapsed.

The government’s, and particularly the Federal Reserve’s response to the housing bust was to inject the markets with $trillions in new liquidity (aka debt) and reflate prices to provide the appearance of a recovery. For existing asset holders, it was a major windfall. For everyone else it has been a very unpleasant “recovery” process with asset prices growing far faster than wage growth. The Covid-era stimulus and liquidity injections created a similar inflationary bubble. While mortgage standards and underwriting are certainly better than the GFC period, liquidity injections (distortions) in the market have been worse.

Unprecedented Liquidity in Markets Distorted Home Prices

The attached charts and graphics reflecting home values in North Texas are a good reminder that liquidity is agnostic. Liquidity will go where it can find the highest yield. During the Covid pandemic U.S. residential real estate was near the top of the list for many investors and speculators. If you are looking to buy or sell a home in Denton County Texas, the charts shown here provide some context to the typical sell-side narratives you often hear in the industry. You can see some of the larger trends in the Denton TX housing market, as well as the correlation to the Fed’s massive balance sheet expansion (also known as quantitative easing), as well as the consequences of quantitative tightening when the Fed is forced to remove that excess liquidity from the market.

Real estate is always local, but there is more going on with Denton TX home prices on the macro level as well. Every U.S. housing market has been affected by the Fed’s interventions in the markets. Denton TX is no exception. The artificial suppression of interest rates via huge purchases of mortgage-backed securities combined with QE1, 2 and 3 created a powerful engine for asset inflation and higher home prices. The liquidity measures during Covid were equal to all of the Fed’s previous interventions combined. Dealing with the consequences is not something that is high on the list of the Fed’s priorities.

As I always tell my clients, every day is not a great day to buy a home…Some days are better than others!