Denton County’s housing market stumbled in January. 2026 isn’t off to a great start if you were looking for more home sales volume. January home sales fell 10.4 percent year over-year. Pending contracts fell 9.7 percent. So what happened? Well, for starters inventory hasn’t perked up just yet. The seasonal rebound in inventory appears to have been delayed a bit by the big ice storm. It will be interesting to see what the coming weeks have in store as the weather warms up.

Area home prices remained soft to start the year. Median home prices in Denton County fell 5.1 percent year-over-year in January. Average home prices 2.2 percent lower. Keep these figures in mind when you receive your initial appraisal notice from the CAD later this spring. New construction home prices have continued to put pressure on the overall sales price stats. That was still the case in January, but to a lesser extent than recent months.

Home Builders Run Out of Affordable Inventory

Area home builders were really motivated to move their inventory at the end of 2025, but some of the discounts and incentives have been dialed back. Pricing will continue to be affected by inventory levels and the prevalence of available inventory. Home sales volumes will also be dependent on inventory, or the lack of it. There’s no shortage of homes in North Texas, but missing middle housing and affordable homes are still difficult to find for some buyers.

The lack of home sales in January can be attributed to fewer affordable homes being sold by builders. Closed sales for new homes were down 26 percent year-over-year in January across Denton County. When builders ramp up the incentives, buyers have been showing up. When they try to hold the line on prices and incentives, buyers are a little more reluctant.

Existing Home Sellers Still Hopeful

Many existing home sellers remain hopeful the market will save them from some poor decisions. So far the economy and the housing market are throwing cold water on their lofty expectations. We’re still seeing plenty of 2022-vintage buyers trying to unload their Denton County homes and receiving a poor reception.

Good homes are still selling well, and luxury home buyers continue to bid on nice properties. The middle of the market remains pretty soft. That is not surprising considering the bifurcated economy. The latest jobs report showed big downward revision to payrolls numbers for 2024 and 2025. Total nonfarm employment is more than a million jobs lower than previously estimated.  College graduates are still experiencing a challenging job market and stubbornly high asset prices. This is reflected in the local housing stats.

Average days on market for a Denton County home jumped 26 percent year-over-year to 82 days. That is the highest figure since 2012, when the housing market was finally climbing out of the Great Recession. The Denton County housing market was dealing with much lower home prices at the time.

Rents Still Soft

Single-family lease rents in Denton County started the year off pretty soft. Median lease prices were down 4.2 percent year-over year. Average rents were 3.7 percent lower. Rents for single-family homes in the area were the lowest since 2022.

The softness in the rental sector is even more pronounced for area apartments. Rents on Denton Texas apartments were down 8.2 percent from last year according to Apartment List. The latest report on asking rents for area apartments shows continued softness for most suburban DFW submarkets.

Rates Are Not the Problem

Rates continue to be range bound near the six percent mark. Smart buyers can still find 30-year mortgages in the fives when they have good credit. It goes without saying that mortgage rates are not the problem for the housing market. This is important to keep in mind whether you are a home buyer or a potential seller.

Builders are still spending significant money to buy down rates for new home buyers, but pricing is still key. Affordability remains a moving target. While we’ve seen modest improvement on that front over the last several months, the market is not out of the woods. The stock market may still be near all-time highs, but that doesn’t mean much to the median home buyer. NAR’s latest report on existing home sales was a reminder that the U.S. housing market still trying to normalize as it digests a major bout of asset inflation.