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Contracts For North Texas Home Purchases Still Shrinking

I have been monitoring the contracts for home purchases in the North Texas area since last week, and the numbers are not encouraging. The number of active option contract properties (listings where the home has gone under contract with a buyer option to back out) continues to shrink. This is not surprising considering the economic backdrop, but it also points to a more prolonged downturn than many in the real estate industry were expecting. Pending sales data for March will not be pretty, but the April data for North Texas home sales could be an [...]

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Crashes, Hit To Texas Housing Market Awaits

The Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for March just crashed to the worst levels since the survey began. The production index cratered from 16.4 to negative 35. New orders dropped to negative 41.3, and the growth rate of new orders index fell to negative 44.9. The employment index fell to negative 23.0, and the hours worked index fell to negative 22.4 "The general business activity index plunged from 1.2 to -70.0, and the company outlook index fell from 3.6 to -65.6. Both March readings are the lowest since the survey began in June 2004." [...]

Market Chaos Hits Mortgage Market, iBuyers Disappear

Chaos is hitting the mortgage markets, and iBuyers have suddenly disappeared from the real estate landscape quicker than a cat on a hot tin roof. The Fed is in utter panic mode, and we are only beginning to find out how fragile the U.S. economy really is. Here's the QE to Infinity announcement from the Fed: "Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy." If you thought the Fed's response to 2008 was extreme, this week's actions by the Federal Reserve make 2008 look tame in comparison. During the height of QE 1, [...]

Reckoning Awaits For Inflated North Texas Real Estate Market

The reckoning awaits for the hyper-financialized north Texas real estate market.  It may take a few months for reality to sink in, but the writing is on the wall regardless of the efforts of housing industry pundits and professional economists to downplay the damage. The hopes of a v-shaped recovery are vanishing faster than the toilet paper on the shelves of your local grocery store. Many of the supposed experts, like the PhD economists employed at the Texas Real Estate Center at A&M, have turned a blind eye to the artificial inflation in Texas real [...]

North Texas Home Sales Climb Higher In February As Yields Collapse

North Texas home sales rose again in February as record low mortgage interest rates continued to support the local real estate market. Dallas-Fort Worth saw sales rise 8 percent in February while pending sales were roughly 13 percent higher. The median price of a DFW home jumped 6 percent compared to a year ago, while the average price rose 7.7 percent. The supply of North Texas homes on the market dropped 13 percent to 2.6 months of supply. Denton County homes sales spiked 18 percent higher last month while pending sales rose about 15 percent [...]

Mortgage Rates at Record Lows as 10-Year Treasury Yield Crashes Below One Percent

It has been an exciting week, and it's only Wednesday. After a massive market ramp on Monday failed to extend into a two-day rally, the Federal Reserve did what many, including myself, expected them to do. Jerome Powell and his central bank cronies pulled out an emergency 50 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate. The Fed rate cut was little more than the Fed playing catch-up to the actual drop in market rates which were crushed by the ongoing coronavirus economic blowback. The Fed's poorly telegraphed rate cut was followed by a near [...]

January New Home Sales Highest Since 2007 At 764,000 SAAR

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 764,000. This is the highest level for new home sales since the summer of 2007. The January print for new home sales is also an increase of 18.6 percent from the same time a year ago. The strong January numbers for new home sales should not be surprising. Declining mortgage rates and major stimulus from the Fed continue to stoke asset inflation in the housing market. I recently detailed how home prices in Denton Texas just hit a [...]

Denton Texas Home Prices Jump To Record Highs With Fed Liquidity

Denton Texas home prices jumped to record highs in January, defying typical seasonal weakness that would accompany a normal real estate market. Today's real estate markets are anything but normal, but we'll get to that in a moment. The median price of a Denton TX home rose 4.7 percent to a record $273,706 in January while the average price jumped 5.5 percent to $288,441. The average price per square foot of a Denton home spiked 9.4 percent to a record $140 per square foot...in January! While the local real estate industry is celebrating these numbers [...]

New Home Sales For December Post At 694,000 SAAR

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 694,000. This was slightly lower than downwardly-revised November figures, but up 23 percent compared to December 2018 when the markets were sliding off a cliff. The median price of a new house sold in December 2019 was $331,400 while the average sales price was $384,500. Both figures represent slight price increases from last year and noticeable jumps from prices in November. The supply of new homes for sale stood at 5.7 months. Despite the downward revisions to previous [...]

North Texas Finishes Year With Strong December Home Sales

North Texas finished the year with strong December home sales. NTREIS data indicate home sales jumped 13 percent compared to the same time last year. Median home prices rose 5.1 percent, and average home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area rose 5.5 percent in December. The supply of homes for sale dropped about 7 percent to 25, 503 in December. December provided another easy year-over-year comparison. At the end of 2018 the North Texas real estate market was experiencing a pronounced slump amid rising interest rates. There was also a big swan dive in the [...]