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Corona Hangover Coming To The North Texas Housing Market

A corona hangover is coming to the North Texas housing market. It's not a question of if, but when. Texas posted a 3rd consecutive daily record yesterday for Covid-19 fatalities, and the 2nd wave of the coronavirus has put the reopening of the Texas economy on hold. The fall opening of schools and universities is becoming more problematic by the day. Anxiety is a now common theme because there are few good choices available when leaders at the Federal and state level have failed us in so many ways. North Texas home sales rebounded sharply [...]

Denton County New Homes See Sales Boost With Covid Recovery

Denton County new homes experienced a dramatic Covid-19 sales recovery last month. While closings of new construction were down 7 percent during the month, pending sales of new construction in Denton County skyrocketed 42 percent. This should translate to higher sales figures in the coming months. Sales of new homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth area were down 10 percent last month following the lockdowns and economic fallout surrounding the coronavirus, but pending sales spiked 43 percent in North Texas as buyers took advantage of record low interest rates and a rebound in many parts of [...]

North Texas Housing Market Hit With Two Viruses

The North Texas housing market is being hit with two viruses. The Covid-19 coronavirus and the subsequent lockdowns which halted economic activity resulted in a 26 percent decline in home sales in May. That was the worst annual decline for the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market in a decade. Contrary to the story spun in the area's largest newspaper it wasn't the pandemic that "chased buyers away". The 42 million new unemployment claims and a cliff dive in the stock market were responsible for that. It's difficult to get a mortgage when you are on unemployment, [...]

Coronavirus Hits DFW Home Sales, But Prices Holding Up

DFW home sales took another hit in April. Home sales slid 18 percent during the month of April as the coronavirus took a toll on the Dallas-Fort Worth real restate market. Pending home sales slid even further, falling 24 percent for April. Despite the noticeable seasonal increase in activity during the past few weeks, it appears the spring/summer selling rush we would typically expect is going to be muted by Covid-19 this year. With over 33 million Americans filing for unemployment during the past two months, a downturn in real estate activity should be expected. [...]

U.S. New Home Sales Fall 9.5% To 627,000 SAAR

The Census Bureau reported new home sales (contracts) for March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 627,000. That was 15.4 percent below the revised February rate and down 9.5% from the same time a year ago. As a reminder, the Census counts a new home sale at the time of contract signing, not the actual closing. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic we actually have a more relevant, forward-looking indicator of new home sales activity, similar to the pending sales metric we would use in the MLS. The median new home sales [...]

Denton County New Home Prices Fall 12 Percent

Average new home prices in Denton County were 12 percent lower than the same time a year ago. Updated NTREIS Trends figures show a 7.2 percent decline in the median price for a new home in Denton County while average prices of new construction slid 11.7 percent from March of last year. New home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have been on a continued a downward trend since the summer of 2017. The reason in one word...affordability. The trend of the incredible shrinking new home and lot size throughout the DFW area is going [...]

North Texas Real Estate Gets Coronafied As Fed Nationalizes Bond Market

North Texas real estate is going to get coronafied, and the coming months will reveal the extent of what looks to be lasting damage for the local real estate market.  The official press release estimates compiled by the A&M RECenter and regurgitated by major media outlets pegged March home sales for a 4 percent increase. It's important to keep in mind these press release numbers are statistical estimates which run off of algorithms accounting for late closings. Sometimes the padding added for late closings or contract activity is overdone, and I believe March is one [...]

Contracts For North Texas Home Purchases Still Shrinking

I have been monitoring the contracts for home purchases in the North Texas area since last week, and the numbers are not encouraging. The number of active option contract properties (listings where the home has gone under contract with a buyer option to back out) continues to shrink. This is not surprising considering the economic backdrop, but it also points to a more prolonged downturn than many in the real estate industry were expecting. Pending sales data for March will not be pretty, but the April data for North Texas home sales could be an [...]

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Crashes, Hit To Texas Housing Market Awaits

The Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for March just crashed to the worst levels since the survey began. The production index cratered from 16.4 to negative 35. New orders dropped to negative 41.3, and the growth rate of new orders index fell to negative 44.9. The employment index fell to negative 23.0, and the hours worked index fell to negative 22.4 "The general business activity index plunged from 1.2 to -70.0, and the company outlook index fell from 3.6 to -65.6. Both March readings are the lowest since the survey began in June 2004." [...]

Market Chaos Hits Mortgage Market, iBuyers Disappear

Chaos is hitting the mortgage markets, and iBuyers have suddenly disappeared from the real estate landscape quicker than a cat on a hot tin roof. The Fed is in utter panic mode, and we are only beginning to find out how fragile the U.S. economy really is. Here's the QE to Infinity announcement from the Fed: "Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy." If you thought the Fed's response to 2008 was extreme, this week's actions by the Federal Reserve make 2008 look tame in comparison. During the height of QE 1, [...]