In the Press

/In the Press

Things Get Ugly For Denton-Based Sally Beauty

Things just got ugly for Denton-based Sally Beauty supply. The international retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies saw its stock plummet after Amazon announced its own professional beauty store. This is not exactly great news for one of Denton's largest businesses. Amazon is a virtually unregulated monopoly on multiple fronts with huge tax advantages to many of its competitors. Amazon Beauty customers will still need a license to purchase professional use products, but Amazon is playing by a different set of rules as regulators continue to turn a blind eye to Amazon's monopolistic business [...]

Stagnating Home Sales, Mortgage Rates & Job Growth But The Fed Only Has Eyes For Wall Street

Home sales are stagnating, mortgage rates are falling and job growth is now waning. What's not to love? Today's nonfarm payrolls report was a resounding thud with only 75,000 jobs added in May. Previous months were revised downward as well. Everywhere you look, cracks are beginning to appear in the carefully varnished edifice the Federal Reserve likes to call an economy. Maybe this is why there were 13 Federal Reserve officials hitting the airwaves this week to talk up their most favored metric of economic validation, the U.S. stock market. Earlier in the week we [...]

Denton County Employment Growth Still Solid, Why Are Home Sales Stagnating?

Denton County employment growth is still humming along. The Dallas-Fort Worth area continues to add jobs. Even with the job growth, home price gains in the DFW area continue to slow. This is confirmed in the recent numbers from Case-Shiller. Along with many professional PhD economists, the Case-Shiller committee seems to be puzzled that the housing market isn't firing on all cylinders given the recent plunge in mortgage interest rates. "Given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better." Even Freddie Mac's deputy chief economist seems to be perplexed that the housing market isn't [...]

New Home Sales Jump 7 Percent In April But Momentum Is Fading

The Census Bureau reported new home sales in April which rose 7 percent compared to the same time a year ago. Sales (contract signings) for April posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000 units. This was close to expectations, but interestingly the April figure represented a rather large 7 percent drop from revised March numbers. The sales numbers for the previous three months were revised higher. The median price of a new home rose in April to $342,200, while the average price of a new home contracted in April rose to $393700. This [...]

Hoisington Quarterly Review: Parallels of Past Fed Mistakes

Hoisington Investment Management has released their latest Quarterly Review, and it's certainly worth a read if you want to understand the Federal Reserve's capitulation on policy normalization and the stagnating global economy. The global economic slowdown should really not be surprising considering the massive amounts of stimulus by global central banks which have resulted in massive amounts of debt and economic bifurcation. The problem with quantitative easing and all of the central bank intervention is that liquidity has not not been used for productive, organic growth. As the debt keeps piling up, the economic benefit [...]

Shadow Bank Lending, Rising Debt To Income Ratios Fueling Denton County Home Price Growth

Shadow banks, or nonbanks as they are often called, continue to dominate the mortgage space in the real estate echo bubble. This is the case in Denton County Texas and all across the country. Since 2008 the share of mortgage originations by nonbanks has more than doubled, rising from 24% in 2008 to 54% in 0217. The share of mortgages issued by traditional large banks continue to decline. As home prices rose throughout Denton County, the quality of the mortgages originated during this boom began deteriorating. Last year the deterioration in mortgage quality was pronounced. [...]

Zillow Offers Coming To Dallas, Company Losses Widen

Zillow Offers are reportedly coming to the Dallas market sometime in 2019. The internet giant/real estate portal will reportedly be expanding its Zillow Offers iBuyer program to sellers in the DFW market sometime this year. Zillow's version of the cash offer buy-your-home-at-a-discount service is already operational in several markets including Phoenix, Vegas, Atlanta, Denver and Charlotte. Zillow reportedly has some lofty plans for their iBuyer program according to their latest investor presentation and earnings release. After posting a full-year loss of more than $119 million for 2018, Zillow founder, Rich Barton, is returning as CEO [...]

NAR: Existing Home Sales At 3-Year Low In January

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales for January posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.94 million. This was 1.2 percent lower than the December reading, and 8.5 percent lower than the same time a year ago. The median price of a resale home sold in January was $247,500 while the average price of a U.S. resale property sold in January was $286,800. With the modest rise in prices, January saw the 83rd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The inventory of existing homes in the U.S. rose 4.6 [...]

Caveman Powell Looking To Levitate Stock, Housing Bubbles

Yesterday the Federal Reserve yelped like a whipped puppy as Jerome Powell turned into the latest iteration of his market-dependent Bernanke/Yellen/Greenspan predecessors. If you remember, Mr. Powell was here in the DFW area back in November playing up the fabulous state of the U.S economy and the Fed's wonderful policies. At the time expectations were that the Fed would be raising the Federal Funds rate four more times this year with a balance sheet reduction schedule that was supposedly on "autopilot" to the tune of $50 billion per month rolling off. Flash forward one quarter [...]

D.R. Horton New Home Orders Miss Expectations With Average Prices At 5-Year Low

Arlington-based D.R. Horton posted some mixed fiscal first quarter results today with the DFW homebuilder missing profit and sales order expectations. D.R. saw rising sales and revenue for the quarter, but even with a huge tax expense reduction and 4.1 million shares repurchased by the company, things didn't quite work out as well as the company might have anticipated. D.R. Horton closed 7 percent more homes in the latest quarter, 11,500, but net sales orders for the period ending in December rose only 3 percent to 11042 homes. That D.R. Horton was able to achieve [...]