Mortgages

/Mortgages

Shadow Bank Lending, Rising Debt To Income Ratios Fueling Denton County Home Price Growth

Shadow banks, or nonbanks as they are often called, continue to dominate the mortgage space in the real estate echo bubble. This is the case in Denton County Texas and all across the country. Since 2008 the share of mortgage originations by nonbanks has more than doubled, rising from 24% in 2008 to 54% in 0217. The share of mortgages issued by traditional large banks continue to decline. As home prices rose throughout Denton County, the quality of the mortgages originated during this boom began deteriorating. Last year the deterioration in mortgage quality was pronounced. [...]

Higher Prices, Shrinking Homes – Denton County’s New Underwater Borrowers Found In HUD Annual Report

The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Fiscal Year 2018 report to Congress is filled with useful information on the state of the U.S. mortgage market. Contained within the 2018 annual report we can see where the latest crop of underwater borrowers are hiding in Denton County Texas. As the size of new homes continues to shrink, particularly for entry-level buyers, prices increases have begun to moderate or even decline in many areas. This poses a big problem for unsuspecting home buyers who have been roped into the housing market at the cycle peak with [...]

LGI Homes’ Beaver Creek In Denton TX A Haven For Wall Street Landlord

The quiet little community of Beaver Creek on the north side of Denton Texas offers a perfect portrait of what's wrong with the current housing market in the United states. Beaver Creek is an LGI Homes community that specializes in affordable starter homes priced in the mid to upper $200's. Having viewed the community earlier this year, I was interested to see how sales would progress since Denton Texas is a popular destination for DFW home shoppers looking for affordable homes. Denton home prices are generally more affordable than the average prices in the Dallas-Fort [...]

Hoisington Q3 Update – Deflationary Wave Of Debt Will Stifle Yields

The deflationary wave of debt growing within multiple facets of the U.S. economy will stifle yields. That's the gist of Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt's latest third quarter Review and Outlook. As the market was puking on the latest surge in Treasury yields above 3%, I couldn't help but notice that the publicly traded homebuilders were getting crushed yet again. With the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate touching 4.9 percent this week (levels not seen in 7 years), things were getting even uglier for the housing sector. There was nowhere to hide this week if [...]

Zero-Down Mortgages Return With New Names

Surprise! Zero-down mortgages are back! Just when you thought we had learned the lessons of the subprime mortgage meltdown nearly a decade ago, along come new twists on an old formula. The recipe is pretty simple, and the inevitable outcomes are fairly predictable, yet that won't deter some people from making irrational decisions when it comes to the fear of missing out (FOMO). The latest strategies to put cash-strapped buyers into homes they probably can't afford are similar to crowdfunding. HomeFundMe is an example of one such program where buyers can solicit donations for a [...]

Denton TX Mortgages – Lock Your Rate Or Not?

Should you lock your Denton TX mortgage interest rate at the time of application? If you are buying a home, it's a difficult question to answer. As early as last week Treasury bears were screaming at the rooftops that yields (and by default mortgage rates) were going to shoot higher, as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury crossing a supposed line in the sand above 3%. What a difference a few days makes! This morning the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury dipped to 2.82 percent, retracing 29 basis points from the recent "line in the [...]

Fed Orders China Bank To Tighten Anti-Money Laundering Protections

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday faulted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd for its weak anti-money laundering protections, ordering ICBC to tighten its screening of illicit money. Real estate money laundering from China into global property markets has been an ongoing theme for several years, and by all accounts the volumes of money being cleaned are still substantial. Last month the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) introduced new guidelines to replace its "Foreign Income Program". CIBC decided it should obtain income verification for foreign buyers gobbling up overpriced Canadian homes. Many of [...]

DC’s Fiscal Lunacy, Fed’s Unwind Creating Waves For Housing Market

The fiscal lunacy in Washington and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet unwind are creating waves for the housing market. 2018 was starting off on the right foot with a noticeable, yet moderate rise in bond yields. As we received more concrete evidence that the Federal Reserve was actually unwinding some of that gigantic balance sheet, volatility erupted pretty quickly. After a 12oo point plunge in the Dow, some savvy mortgage borrowers probably took advantage of the temporary fear in the market to score a decent mortgage rate. It was a small window of opportunity, because [...]

Quicken Loans Overtakes Wells Fargo As Largest Mortgage Lender

Quicken Loans overtook Wells Fargo as the largest mortgage lender in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2017. Quicken Loans, with their Rocket Mortgage platform, reportedly originated $25 billion in home loans in the last three months of 2017. Wells Fargo was second with $23 billion, followed by Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase at $13 billion and $11 billion respectively. In case you missed it, here's the Rocket Mortgage ad aired during the Super Bowl... 2018 was poised to be a decent year for mortgage lenders, but likely not for Wells Fargo. Serial [...]

Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Proceeding At Snails Pace

The balance sheet unwind for the Federal Reserve is proceeding at a snails pace. After a rather large jump in the securities holdings last week, we should have seen a resumption in the balance sheet shrinkage. Interestingly the Fed's holdings of Treasury and mortgage securities only fell by $4.8 billion this past week. A look at the weekly System Open Market Account Holdings shows there is a lot of work to do in the last week of the year if the Fed is going to stick to it's stated unwind schedule. While the Fed has [...]