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October New Home Sales Collapse, Near Three-Year Low

The Census Bureau numbers for October new home sales posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 544,000 units. This was way below expectations of a 575,000 print, and near a three-year low. As I have been detailing for much of the year, much of that "pent-up demand" that you hear real estate industry mouthpieces talking about is a giant work of fiction, a tired marketing ploy that the media, economists and Realtors have been using in attempt to justify grossly inflated home prices across the U.S. Well, it appears the cat is officially [...]

Jerome Powell Visits Dallas Fed – Global Perspectives In Oblivion

Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, visited the Dallas Federal Reserve yesterday to cap the Dallas bank's Global Perspectives series. Aside from pontificating about global economic perspectives, the meeting between Robert Kaplan and Jerome Powell was insightful for many reasons. Kaplan reminded the audience of Powell's policy experience which includes time as partner at private equity firm the Carlyle Group. Listening to a Goldman Sachs alum toss softball questions to a Carlyle alum is one way, I suppose, to placate a concerned public that the economy is still healthy and the Fed is on the ball, [...]

Hoisington Q3 Update – Deflationary Wave Of Debt Will Stifle Yields

The deflationary wave of debt growing within multiple facets of the U.S. economy will stifle yields. That's the gist of Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt's latest third quarter Review and Outlook. As the market was puking on the latest surge in Treasury yields above 3%, I couldn't help but notice that the publicly traded homebuilders were getting crushed yet again. With the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate touching 4.9 percent this week (levels not seen in 7 years), things were getting even uglier for the housing sector. There was nowhere to hide this week if [...]

Denton TX Property Taxes Soar As Homeowners Confront Fed Propaganda

Collections from Denton TX property taxes will likely hit record highs this year. When you receive your property tax bills in the mail, be sure to thank the Federal Reserve. After years of goosing asset prices higher, particularly property and stock prices, just about every piece of real estate in Denton TX and Denton County has risen in value. This is not rocket science. There is no mystery behind what drove the price increases. If you are a beneficiary of home price appreciation and you are fortunate enough to sell, cashing in on the gains [...]

10 Years After The Housing Crash, Dallas-Fort Worth Experiencing Consequences Of Policy Failures

10 years after the housing crash and the Great Recession that nearly brought the world economy to its knees, the adults in the room are still pretending that everything is normal. If you read the Dallas Morning News and the spin of many professional economists, the DFW real estate market has emerged from the wreckage 10 years ago relatively unscathed. With DFW home prices at record highs, most housing pundits are eager to suggest everything is awesome. Apparently the recent rise in home inventories is just blip in an otherwise normalization of the formerly red [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Climbs 17% As Sales Stagnate

The supply of homes for sale in Denton County TX continues to climb, even as area home sales stagnate. Recent data point to a 17 percent increase in the number of homes available for sale in Denton County compared to this time last year.  Home inventory in nearby Collin County is 21 percent higher than August of last year. Other major metro U.S. markets are seeing home inventory increase by as much as 90 percent. This was an inevitable point in the latest housing market cycle, for reasons that were obvious to anyone paying attention. [...]

RECenter A&M Economists Still Wasting Texas Realtors’ Money

RECenter at A&M economists and data junkies are still wasting the dues of Texas Realtors that pay a good chunk of their salaries. It seems the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M economists are phase-locked in a myopic pursuit to somehow rationalize or justify the status quo situation with Texas housing. "Intellectual Phase-Locking is a condition that results when dogmatic 'scientific' assumptions inhibit further inquiry." Rupert Sheldrake Last year I wrote about some of the interesting details on the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M and their funding. I have also clued readers in on the [...]

All Roads Still Point Toward Yield Curve Inversion

With the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization process set to kick into a higher gear next month, all roads still point toward a yield curve inversion. While govt officials and the Fed's pie-in-the-sky economists continue to was about a robust economy with unemployment levels hovering near cycle lows, there are some widening cracks appearing in the global QE Ponzi scheme. Yesterday the Fed found some "widespread and critical deficiencies" in Deutsche Bank's capital planning controls. You don't say! The stock of Germany's largest bank, a toxic time bomb of opaque derivatives, continues to plumb news [...]

Autopsy Report For Affordable Housing In Dallas Fort Worth

An autopsy report for affordable homes in Dallas-Fort Worth reveals the steady evaporation of affordable housing inventory in the DFW area. Recent data show that housing prices in the U.S. are currently at their least affordable levels since the financial crisis. The latest numbers on existing home sales showed that the median price of a home hit a new all-time high. So how did this all happen? Was it an accident? Is it due to our smashingly great economy? Let's find out. As investors and speculators have gobbled up lower-priced homes across the country to [...]

April Existing Home Sales Soften 2.5%

The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.5 percent slide in existing home sales for April. That translates to a 1.4 percent decline compared to last year. According to NAR the median price of an existing home sold in April was $257,900, a rise  of 5.3 percent compared to last year. The average price of an existing home was $297,300, an increase of 3.3 percent compared to last year. NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, blamed low inventory for the sluggish April sales... “The root cause of the underperforming sales activity in much of the country [...]