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Low Rates Keep North Texas Home Sales Alive In September

North Texas home sales improved by roughly 6 percent in September, boosted by an extremely favorable year-over-year mortgage rate comparison which kept affordability levels manageable for area home shoppers. Denton County saw a 7 percent improvement in September home closings, while the City of Denton saw home sales fall slightly compared to the same month in 2018. Pending home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth area look to have improved by 6-7 percent in September, but not by the magical 12 percent as reported in the area's largest paper. Average home prices were up 3.7 percent [...]

Fed Says No Rate Hikes In 2019, Balance Sheet Drawdown Ending In September

The Jerome Powell cave is now a comical farce. Aside from using the word "patient" about 30 times in the March FOMC statement, Jerome Powell told us the Fed does not expect to hike interest rates at all in 2019. To top things off, the Fed balance sheet that was on autopilot at the end of last year will now end this September. In terms of the Fed's projections for the economy, growth was revised down and the unemployment rate was revised up slightly. "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation [...]

Dallas Fort Worth Employment Growth Still Solid, For Now

Dallas-Fort Worth employment numbers show that the DFW economy was still on solid footing in December. While local job growth has been slowing a bit, the economy has been rather resilient. Texas posted annual employment growth for 104 consecutive months in December 2018. The state unemployment rate stood at 3.7 percent. Unemployment in Texas was near record lows for a third consecutive month as we ended the year, and unemployment in the DFW area was lower than the state average at only 3.3 percent. With the recent slowdown in the economy, it will be interesting [...]

Denton County Home Sales Continued Sliding In December

Denton County home sales continued their slide in December as the Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market saw a 5th consecutive month of year-over-year declining sales activity. Denton County experienced an 11 percent decline in closed home sales along with a corresponding 11 percent decline in pending home sales activity. The drop in forward-looking contract activity suggests that a spring housing rebound may be a tough proposition. Home prices were still rising in many DFW submarkets in December, including Denton Texas where the average price of a home rose 11 percent to $274,012. Looking at a [...]

Dallas Fort Worth Real Estate Staring At Potential Bear Market

The Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market is looking at a bear of a problem. After the worst Christmas-Eve trading session in history for U.S. stock markets, time is running out for the wise guys on Wall Street to save indices from entering bear market territory. Looking at home prices and sales volumes in the DFW area, it would seem things are still running along fairly normally; however, it could be a mistake to assume the recent softness in home sales is just a blip in an otherwise stabilizing market. We could easily see a rally into [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Down Seven Percent In November

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales for November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.32 million. This was up slightly from October but still down seven percent compared to the same time last year. The spike in mortgage interest rates was still lingering over the real estate market in November. The median price of an existing home sold in November was $257,700 in November, a rise of 4.2 percent year-over-year and the 81st consecutive month of year-over-year home price increases. The average price of an existing home sold in November [...]

Trendmaker Homes Comes To Dallas Via TRI Pointe Acquisition of Dunhill

California based TRI Pointe Group is expanding its Texas footprint by purchasing Dallas-based Dunhill Homes for a reported $60 million. Dunhill Homes operates in the Dallas-Fort Worth market under the Dunhill and Nathan Carlisle Homes brands. Effective January 1st, Dunhill will begin operating under the Trendmaker Homes brand. Trendmaker Homes was previously part of Weyerhaeuer before the Houston area builder was acquired by TRI Pointe several years ago. Trendmaker builds a number of affordable luxury homes in the Houston and Austin markets. With the absorption of Dunhill Homes, TRI Point will acquire Dunhill's assets, and [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Rises 30 Percent As Sales Continue To Fall

The number of homes for sale in Denton County Texas is up 30 percent year-over-year in November. This is happening even as the number of closed sales in Denton County continues to decline. In Layman's terms, the housing market has peaked in Denton County Texas. You know your real estate market is due for some softness when the Wall Street Journal explicitly tells you that the housing boom is over. Looking at area inventory levels, you can see that home inventory has actually been rising for more than a year. This is true in Denton [...]

Jerome Powell Visits Dallas Fed – Global Perspectives In Oblivion

Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, visited the Dallas Federal Reserve yesterday to cap the Dallas bank's Global Perspectives series. Aside from pontificating about global economic perspectives, the meeting between Robert Kaplan and Jerome Powell was insightful for many reasons. Kaplan reminded the audience of Powell's policy experience which includes time as partner at private equity firm the Carlyle Group. Listening to a Goldman Sachs alum toss softball questions to a Carlyle alum is one way, I suppose, to placate a concerned public that the economy is still healthy and the Fed is on the ball, [...]

Beazer Homes Soars On Short Squeeze, Share Repurchase Plan

Beazer Homes shares soared roughly 30 percent in a single day after the Atlanta-based homebuilder reported fourth quarter and full fiscal year results on Tuesday. From the reaction of the stock yesterday, you would think Beazer had patented a new home construction process or something else miraculous. Obviously something was thrilling investors, because it wasn't demand for Beazer homes in the fourth quarter, which fell according to the company's press release. According to Beazer, unit orders during the fourth quarter fell 0.8 percent to 1305 homes. Beazer's homebuilding revenues rose 14 percent for the fourth [...]