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Economy

Economic Issues Affecting Texas Housing Markets

Something’s Gotta Give – Home Prices or Mortgage Rates

Something's gotta give in terms of mortgage rates or home prices. While many agents and loan officers were cheering a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, the bond markets smelled a rat. Mortgage rates responded by actually rising by a half point since the Fed's announcement. This halted recent improvement in sales activity. It will also have an effect on home prices now that forward expectations are receiving a dose of reality. The reality is that inflation isn't dead, not by a long shot. Some real estate industry practitioners were [...]

Inflated Prices Curb Denton County Home Sales

Inflated prices continue to curb Denton County home sales. Prevailing mortgage rates are at the lowest levels we've seen in 19 months, but that hasn't helped sales activity. Closed sales were down 7 percent year-over-year in the DFW area. Sales were 9 percent lower across Denton County, while pending sales contracts slid 11 percent. It might have something to do with the prices. Average home prices in Denton County were up 5.7 percent from a year ago, flirting with that spring 2022 bubble top again. Official stats show we still haven't taken out the May [...]

Denton County Home Sales Hit 11-Year Low

Denton County home sales slid to an 11-year low in June. Closed sales continued to stagnate with mortgage rates still hovering near seven percent. Home prices were near all-time highs. The confusing mix of housing unaffordability pushed more more buyers to the sidelines. Closings were 14 percent lower year-over year. Average home prices in Denton County moved up 4.1 percent to $589,000 in June. Pending contracts slid 13 percent year-over-year in June. With sluggish sales, available home inventory perked up significantly last month. Months of supply in Denton County shot up 36 percent from a [...]

Dallas TX Luxury Home Sales Go Parabolic

Luxury home sales were on rocket fuel last month in Dallas Texas. Sales of luxury homes price at a $1 million or more spiked 44 percent from May of last year. The average price of a Dallas home skyrocketed 21 percent year-over-year setting a new record high of $716,131. That's $124,000 higher than May of last year and $63,000 higher than the previous bubble peak of June 2022. While the Federal Reserve is still trying to shrink that bloated balances sheet, The U.S. Treasury department is still pumping out a lot of new debt issuance [...]

Rise In Inventory Boosts Home Sales

More home inventory helped push North Texas home sales into positive territory in April. North Texas saw a 5.5 percent increase in home sales compared to last year while Denton County experienced a 7.3 percent bump in closed transactions. The additional transaction activity was fueled by a 37 percent rise in available home inventory compared to last year. Inventory has been growing steadily for most of the year as 7 percent interest rates and a slowing economy worked to curtail demand in the housing market. Denton County now has 2.7 months of available home inventory. [...]

What’s Going On With New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590,000 units. That was well below expectations. The median new home price was $434,700 according to Census estimates. The average new home price was $488,900. The inventory of new homes rose to 9.2 months of supply. That put inventory at the highest levels of the year, and back to where it stood in November 2022. But there's a catch. This is November data. The November Census estimate on new home sales doesn't capture the capitulation from Janet (Treasury) [...]

North Texas Housing Market Stalls with Eight Percent Rates

The North Texas housing market continued to cool with mortgage rates rising to eight percent in October. Closed sales in Denton County fell 9 percent from a year ago. Pending contracts slid 2 percent. Inventory remained steady at 2.5 months of supply. Percent of list and days on market were relatively unchanged. Median home prices in Denton County slid to $450,000 in October, down 1.3% from a year ago. Average prices cooled as well, sliding to $538,063. Prices have cooled for 3 months in a row. It's not just normal seasonality at play. Higher mortgage [...]

Denton County House Payments Hit Record Highs

Denton County house payments hit record highs in July. Prospective home buyers continued to get pinched by higher mortgage rates and the rebound in North Texas home prices through the first half of the year. As mortgage rates mushroomed back toward 7 percent, area house payments have soared for buyers using a market rate mortgage. Median home prices came in at $475,000 for the month of July. The median house payment for Denton County buyers factoring in the rise in interest rates translates to a principal and interest payment of over $2500 per month. That's [...]

Denton County New Home Market Headed for Another Slowdown

Denton County's new home market is headed for another slowdown. High prices and a rebound in interest rates to that critical seven percent mark are just part of the problem. There's also a pending recession on deck. The Census Bureau reported April new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 units. That was better than expected, but previous months were revised lower. Cancellation rates for builders have come back down, but new home affordability remains an issue. There is still a large backlog of homes under construction. Any softness in the economy [...]

Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

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