Economy

/Economy

Economic Issues Affecting Texas Housing Markets

Fed Says No Rate Hikes In 2019, Balance Sheet Drawdown Ending In September

The Jerome Powell cave is now a comical farce. Aside from using the word "patient" about 30 times in the March FOMC statement, Jerome Powell told us the Fed does not expect to hike interest rates at all in 2019. To top things off, the Fed balance sheet that was on autopilot at the end of last year will now end this September. In terms of the Fed's projections for the economy, growth was revised down and the unemployment rate was revised up slightly. "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation [...]

Denton County Employment Growth Continues In 2019

The BLS February employment report was a big disappointment in terms of the number of jobs added, but Denton County continues to see solid employment growth. So far in 2019 the trend of more jobs in the area is still intact. The Dallas-Fort Worth area is still churning out jobs, and that is certainly welcome news considering the larger macroeconomic backdrop. For the time being, Denton and the DFW area are still churning out decent job numbers. The Texas economy added 15,400 seasonally adjusted nonfarm positions in January 2019, and Texas employers added 292,000 jobs [...]

Want To Sell Your Denton County Home? Time To Get Real

Denton County home sellers are experiencing a different real estate market in 2019. It's the type of market some people probably remember, but one they haven't experienced for a number of years as the Federal Reserve and other global banks jawboned markets higher and fueled a speculative frenzy in global real estate. Average days on market continued to rise in February. Even though sales activity rebounded a bit last month, the Denton County housing market correction that started during the last half of 2018 is still taking shape. While many housing pundits and professional economists [...]

NAR: Existing Home Sales At 3-Year Low In January

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales for January posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.94 million. This was 1.2 percent lower than the December reading, and 8.5 percent lower than the same time a year ago. The median price of a resale home sold in January was $247,500 while the average price of a U.S. resale property sold in January was $286,800. With the modest rise in prices, January saw the 83rd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The inventory of existing homes in the U.S. rose 4.6 [...]

Denton County Home Sales Fall Out Of The Gate In 2019

Denton County home sales remained in their downward trend as we started 2019. NTREIS figures show that sales of Denton County homes fell 13 percent from the same time last year. Pending sales, a more forward looking indicator, did show a slight improvement, though not enough to pull the index into positive territory. Pending home sales in the Denton County area were down 6 percent compared to January 2018. The recent plunge in mortgage rates back to 1-year lows has helped to cushion the fall in an otherwise stagnating housing market. DFW home sales fell [...]

D.R. Horton New Home Orders Miss Expectations With Average Prices At 5-Year Low

Arlington-based D.R. Horton posted some mixed fiscal first quarter results today with the DFW homebuilder missing profit and sales order expectations. D.R. saw rising sales and revenue for the quarter, but even with a huge tax expense reduction and 4.1 million shares repurchased by the company, things didn't quite work out as well as the company might have anticipated. D.R. Horton closed 7 percent more homes in the latest quarter, 11,500, but net sales orders for the period ending in December rose only 3 percent to 11042 homes. That D.R. Horton was able to achieve [...]

Dallas Fort Worth Employment Growth Still Solid, For Now

Dallas-Fort Worth employment numbers show that the DFW economy was still on solid footing in December. While local job growth has been slowing a bit, the economy has been rather resilient. Texas posted annual employment growth for 104 consecutive months in December 2018. The state unemployment rate stood at 3.7 percent. Unemployment in Texas was near record lows for a third consecutive month as we ended the year, and unemployment in the DFW area was lower than the state average at only 3.3 percent. With the recent slowdown in the economy, it will be interesting [...]

False Narratives About The Housing Market Refuse To Die

False narratives about the U.S. housing market refuse to die. Mainstream media and real estate industry shills continue to deflect attention from the complex, but at the same time rather simple reasons behind the lack of housing affordability. Politico author, Lorraine Woellert, offers us a perfect example of everything that is wrong with the U.S. housing market, including the mainstream media reporting on it. I hadn't come across this piece previously, but having  now read it, there are a number of red flags that are worth calling out. Woellert seems appropriately concerned that only wealthy [...]

Hyper-Financialized DFW Housing Market Will Get Worse

The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales for November slid 7.7 percent compared to a year ago. Of course the headline you probably saw in the media was the 0.7 percent drop compared to October's decline in contract signings. With the stock market poised to finish one of the worst Decembers in recent memory, you can rest assured the hyper-financialized Dallas-Fort Worth housing market is going to get worse before it fully recovers. Chief economist, Lawrence Yun, attempted to diffuse concerns about sliding sales numbers in November in NAR's latest press release, but [...]

Dallas Fort Worth Real Estate Staring At Potential Bear Market

The Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market is looking at a bear of a problem. After the worst Christmas-Eve trading session in history for U.S. stock markets, time is running out for the wise guys on Wall Street to save indices from entering bear market territory. Looking at home prices and sales volumes in the DFW area, it would seem things are still running along fairly normally; however, it could be a mistake to assume the recent softness in home sales is just a blip in an otherwise stabilizing market. We could easily see a rally into [...]