Economy

Economic Issues Affecting Texas Housing Markets

Seven Percent Mortgage Rates Return to North Texas

Seven percent mortgage rates have returned to North Texas. The self-inflicted wounds from a the Trump administration keep piling up in 2026. While Republicans are busy begging to stay in power at the midterm convention in Dallas this week, yields on the 10-year Treasury bond are blowing out to 4.95 percent. Not surprisingly, mortgage rates also jumped above seven percent, hitting 7.07 percent in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. In a comically deluded fit of desperation, president Trump once again pitched the ruse of a $5,000 dividend check to every U.S. adult. Trump polished up [...]

North Texas Housing Market Recession Continues

The North Texas housing market recession continues to baffle industry participants. With mortgage rates inching closer to seven percent again and home prices still suffering from a massive bout of inflation, it's really not too hard to understand. A series of policy errors continues to weigh on the housing market. The good news is that the market is still clearing for the most part. The bad news is there's no easy way out of the hole. It could take years for the housing market to recover while affordability continues to remain elusive. Self-Inflicted Wounds For [...]

Iran War Tax Filters Into Housing Market

The Iran War Tax is filtering into the housing market. Inflationary pressures from higher fuel costs are now eating away at housing demand while Americans' household budgets get slammed with yet another policy blunder. The spring of 2026 was poised to see a rebound in housing activity. Resale inventory has returned to the market and mortgage interest rates seemed like they might stabilize below six percent. Those green shoots for North Texas real estate have been upended by the Trump administration's colossal blunder in the Middle East on behalf of Israel. Fuel prices are up [...]

Lower Prices Bring More Denton County Home Sales

Lower prices produced more home sales for Denton County last month. Area home sales rose 4.4 percent compared to March of last year. Sales were up 3.3% across the DFW region. Pending contract activity also picked up for Denton County, rising 5.3 percent year-over year. The spring awakening was modest, but welcome in an overall sluggish market. The key to the recent increase in sales activity boils down to affordability. Median prices in Denton county were down 6 percent year-over-year in March. Average prices fell 6.9 percent across Denton County. Prices were even lower in [...]

More Intervention Won’t Fix the Housing Market

More intervention won't fix the housing market. This simple truth is obvious to most serious practitioners in the industry. The current affordability challenges facing the U.S. real estate market go well beyond interest rates. Truth is irrelevant to many politicians in an election cycle, so the insanity and market tinkering continues. It was beyond absurd for the Trump administration to pitch the idea of a 50-year mortgage. That half-baked idea from FHFA director William Pulte Jr. fortunately had a fairly short news cycle. With midterms elections in focus and favorability ratings in the basement, Trump [...]

Denton County Home Prices Are Lower Than Official Stats

Real Denton County home prices are lower than official stats are reflecting. Official numbers from NTREIS show median home prices in Denton County down 6.5 percent from September of last year. Average prices fell 4.5 percent year-over-year. Real home prices in Denton County are lower than that. The discrepancy between what is getting reported in the media and what's actually happening at the closing table requires a dive into the actual closing data. For better or worse, the North Texas MLS does not require an adjusted sales price field that shows the real closing price [...]

Denton County Home Prices Turn Lower

Denton County home prices turned lower in August. Plentiful inventory and more economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the local real estate market. Consumers appear to be caught between a rock and a hard place with a softening job market and above-normal inflation. Mortgage rates have improved, but not enough to make a significant difference. Median home prices were 9.4 percent lower year-over-year across Denton County. Median single-family home prices declined by 10.2 percent compared to last year. There are still plenty of homes for sale in North Texas even after resale speculators pulled their [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Reaches New Record High

Denton County's available home inventory reached a new record high in June. The supply of homes for sale in this part of North Texas is up 670 percent from the Covid lows. Denton County reached 5 months of supply in June. That's a 43 percent increase from last year. Amid the new stagflationary market, closed sales rose 9.3 percent in June. Pending contracts fell 3.7 percent. Home prices remain stuck in the mud across North Texas. Median home prices in Denton County fell 3.4 percent year-over-year in June. Average prices declined 4.9 percent. A softening [...]

Stagflation Continues for North Texas Housing Market

Stagflation continues to be the theme for the North Texas housing market. Sales and contract activity remain sluggish as DFW home prices remain at inflated levels. Home sales across North Texas slid 5.5 percent year-over-year in May. Sales were down 3.5 percent in Denton County. Collin County managed a 1 percent increase. Median prices slid 4.8% and 4.9 percent respectively in Denton and Collin Counties. That reversion to the mean has been a consistent trend so far in 2025. Severely strained housing affordability levels continue to take a toll on contract activity. At the same [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Surges to Record High

Denton County home inventory has quietly surged to a record high. Across North Texas, the supply of available homes has never been higher. The much-maligned housing shortage is a thing of the past. All it took was a little time and normal mortgage interest rates. There are now over 5,000 homes available in Denton County. That supply is well above the previous high in June of 2019. Denton County now has 4.4 months of supply. That's a 66 percent rise from last year. It's also well above inventory levels we saw prior to the pandemic. [...]

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