Economy

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Economic Issues Affecting Texas Housing Markets

False Narratives About The Housing Market Refuse To Die

False narratives about the U.S. housing market refuse to die. Mainstream media and real estate industry shills continue to deflect attention from the complex, but at the same time rather simple reasons behind the lack of housing affordability. Politico author, Lorraine Woellert, offers us a perfect example of everything that is wrong with the U.S. housing market, including the mainstream media reporting on it. I hadn't come across this piece previously, but having  now read it, there are a number of red flags that are worth calling out. Woellert seems appropriately concerned that only wealthy [...]

Hyper-Financialized DFW Housing Market Will Get Worse

The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales for November slid 7.7 percent compared to a year ago. Of course the headline you probably saw in the media was the 0.7 percent drop compared to October's decline in contract signings. With the stock market poised to finish one of the worst Decembers in recent memory, you can rest assured the hyper-financialized Dallas-Fort Worth housing market is going to get worse before it fully recovers. Chief economist, Lawrence Yun, attempted to diffuse concerns about sliding sales numbers in November in NAR's latest press release, but [...]

Dallas Fort Worth Real Estate Staring At Potential Bear Market

The Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market is looking at a bear of a problem. After the worst Christmas-Eve trading session in history for U.S. stock markets, time is running out for the wise guys on Wall Street to save indices from entering bear market territory. Looking at home prices and sales volumes in the DFW area, it would seem things are still running along fairly normally; however, it could be a mistake to assume the recent softness in home sales is just a blip in an otherwise stabilizing market. We could easily see a rally into [...]

Powell Continues FOMC’s Legacy Of Serial Arsonists

The Federal Reserve FOMC announced another Federal Funds rate hike, raising the target rate to 2.5 percent. That was widely anticipated. What the market did not like was a less-than dovish stance from Jerome Powell and his merry band of serial arsonists, as he stuck to the script that everything is awesome in the land of milk and honey. Aside from the drop in 10-year Treasury yields, there are important ramifications for the real estate market as the failures of Federal Reserve policy, and the consequences that come with it, become increasingly evident. Make no [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Rises 30 Percent As Sales Continue To Fall

The number of homes for sale in Denton County Texas is up 30 percent year-over-year in November. This is happening even as the number of closed sales in Denton County continues to decline. In Layman's terms, the housing market has peaked in Denton County Texas. You know your real estate market is due for some softness when the Wall Street Journal explicitly tells you that the housing boom is over. Looking at area inventory levels, you can see that home inventory has actually been rising for more than a year. This is true in Denton [...]

Powell Keeping Federal Reserve’s Waffle House Open For Business

Not more than two weeks after he was touting the strength of the U.S. economy and how we are in such a good place, Fed chairman Jerome Powell, tossed out a slightly dovish speech to the audience at the Economic Club of New York. The title of the event was the 'Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability'. They could just as easily called it sticking your finger up in the air to see which way the wind is blowing. While tossing out the typical central banker sound bites, Powell continued the long standing Federal [...]

Frisco TX Home Sales Collapse As DFW Market Turns

Home sales were down 13 percent in Frisco TX, the popular suburban Dallas community which is also home to the Dallas Cowboys. Pending sales during the month of October were even worse, falling 16 percent from the same time a year ago. The number of homes for sale in this   in this sports-minded community rose 6.2%. There are over a 1000 homes for sale in Frisco currently, but they aren't selling like they used to. Frisco's real estate problem is the same one plaguing the North Texas market in general. Prices are simply too high, [...]

Dallas Fort Worth Employment Growth Solid, Wage Growth Still Lags Real Inflation

Dallas-Fort Worth employment continues to grow, but wage growth is nothing to write home about. The Texas unemployment rate (at least the statistically massaged headline unemployment rate) hit an historic low in October at 3.7 percent. Dallas Fort Worth job growth was still impressive through October according to the latest data from the Texas Workforce Commission. According to the latest numbers there were 3,803,500 people working in the DFW area bringing the unemployment rate for Dallas to 3.2 percent. According to the latest data, Texas has experienced 28 consecutive months of employment growth. This is [...]

By |2018-11-17T21:04:52+00:00November 17th, 2018|Dallas Tx Employment, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Relocation|0 Comments

Jerome Powell Visits Dallas Fed – Global Perspectives In Oblivion

Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, visited the Dallas Federal Reserve yesterday to cap the Dallas bank's Global Perspectives series. Aside from pontificating about global economic perspectives, the meeting between Robert Kaplan and Jerome Powell was insightful for many reasons. Kaplan reminded the audience of Powell's policy experience which includes time as partner at private equity firm the Carlyle Group. Listening to a Goldman Sachs alum toss softball questions to a Carlyle alum is one way, I suppose, to placate a concerned public that the economy is still healthy and the Fed is on the ball, [...]

High Prices, Higher Rates Stall Dallas Fort Worth New Home Market

High prices and higher rates are hammering the Dallas-Fort Worth new home market. Starts from new home builders are now expected to increase by only a few hundred homes next year. I am not surprised. I covered this development a few days ago in my post on DR Horton's fourth quarter results, but a recent piece in the Dallas Morning News citing an industry insider/expert highlights the failure of local media to report on what is actually happening. My October housing market report for the DFW area explains why the correction in the local real estate [...]