Tariff chaos is breeeding economic uncertainty. That uncertainty is filtering into the housing market. While President Trump was busy talking up Liberation Day and his beautiful tariff plan, he forgot to tell you his plan involves liberating you from your 401K retirement account balance.

A stock market correction was already in play before Trump’s tariff plan hit the tape, but the announcement itself (or more accurately the insanity of the plan) really disappointed Wall Street. Instead of the reciprocal tariffs and a rebalancing of trade, the markets received one of the most inept and misguided tariff plans you could possibly imagine. Mr. Market was not amused by the plan, and it didn’t take 24 hours before Wall Street kingpins and billionaires were whining on TV that the madness had to stop.

Trump, after insisting he wasn’t going to back down, was indeed forced to capitulate when the bond markets forced his hand. All it took was a 4.5 percent yield on the 10-year treasury bond and a 5.0 percent yield on the 30-year bond. The whipsaw in the U.S. dollar and bond markets most certaintly caught the attention of Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Both received a quick lesson on the interconnected nature of trade and capital flows.

Trump Tariff Chaos 2025

Why Bond Yields Matter

Those bond yields matter, a lot. The United States is sitting on a huge pile of debt. The current administration has publicly stated they were targeting 10-year yields, trying to cool the economy and get rates back down. For all of their big beautiful plans, they have little to show for it.

Current fiscal projections have the Trump administration running another big deficit so far in 2025. All of those projected cost savings from Elon and his DOGE task force? Those were just a ruse to get more tax cuts for wealthy Americans and big business. Imagine the stupidity of trying to cut Social Security for elderly Americans while also touting a $trillion defense budget. That’s audacious oligarchy.

In terms of the housing market, those bond yields have created a serious whipsaw for prospective home buyers. Bond yields were cooling off as the stock market decline. That improvement is gone with tariffs on the table and a major rebalancing of global capital flows in play. Mortgage interest rates are back near 7 percent again.

Denton County Housing Market

The Denton County housing market continues to chug along with low sales volume and stagnant pricing. Mean reversion is slowly filtering through the real estate market. Doomers have been disappointed by the resilience of home prices. At the same time market participants are disappointed with the overall lack of market activity and sluggish sales. These are the consequences of policy choices made years ago, and particularly during the pandemic when distortions upended normal market functions.

Home sales were down 4 percent year-over-year with the March data. Pending sales improved with the major increase in inventory this year, but they wer still down 2 percent from last year. The first week of April probably enticed a few buyers, but rates jumping back to 7 percent is going to curb that enthusiasm quickly.

Home prices continue to cool, reflecting more softness and stagnation from that economic uncertainty. Median home prices in Denton County were down 2.4 percent from last year. Average prices were down 1.3 percent. The city of Denton is sitting on a record amount of home inventory. Available home inventory across Denton County is now above 2019 levels. Inventory is even higher when you factor in months of supply because overall demand is much lower.

Despite the huge mess and delinquencies in the FHA loan portfolio, there’s still not much distress on the part of U.S. home sellers. Most Americans are still sitting on significant equity in their homes or really generous two or three percent mortgages. That’s assuming they don’t own their home free and clear.

Looks like more stagnation is in store for the local housing market time being. Markets will attempt to navigate the tariff chaos, while home buyers and sellers are subjected to the economic uncertainty of Trump 2.0.

Be safe out there.