DFW Home Prices

Lower Prices Bring More Denton County Home Sales

Lower prices produced more home sales for Denton County last month. Area home sales rose 4.4 percent compared to March of last year. Sales were up 3.3% across the DFW region. Pending contract activity also picked up for Denton County, rising 5.3 percent year-over year. The spring awakening was modest, but welcome in an overall sluggish market. The key to the recent increase in sales activity boils down to affordability. Median prices in Denton county were down 6 percent year-over-year in March. Average prices fell 6.9 percent across Denton County. Prices were even lower in [...]

Denton County Real Estate Market Remains Soft

Denton County's real estate market remained soft in February. Home sales fell 6 percent from the same month a year ago, while median prices slid 4.5 percent. Pending contract activity picked up slightly, rising three percent. After bottoming in January, available inventory has started to pick up again with typical seasonality. Mortgage interest rates briefly dipped into the fives, but conflict in the Middle East has pushed rates and inflation expectations back up again. Area home prices remained under pressure from new construction. Builders have been offering generous discounts and lower prices to move their [...]

More Intervention Won’t Fix the Housing Market

More intervention won't fix the housing market. This simple truth is obvious to most serious practitioners in the industry. The current affordability challenges facing the U.S. real estate market go well beyond interest rates. Truth is irrelevant to many politicians in an election cycle, so the insanity and market tinkering continues. It was beyond absurd for the Trump administration to pitch the idea of a 50-year mortgage. That half-baked idea from FHFA director William Pulte Jr. fortunately had a fairly short news cycle. With midterms elections in focus and favorability ratings in the basement, Trump [...]

North Texas Housing Market Correction Gets Real

The North Texas housing market correction continues to cause more pain. Median home prices across Denton County collapsed 9.2 percent year-over-year in November. Average prices are down 8.7 percent from last year. Closed sales were down 12 percent from a year ago. With the sharp drop in prices, pending contracts managed a 3 percent increase. As we say in the business, "Price cures all defects". That's certainly true in today's market. Sellers Still in Denial Many prospective sellers were getting their wings clipped this year. We can see this in the cancelled and expired listings. [...]

Denton County Home Prices Are Lower Than Official Stats

Real Denton County home prices are lower than official stats are reflecting. Official numbers from NTREIS show median home prices in Denton County down 6.5 percent from September of last year. Average prices fell 4.5 percent year-over-year. Real home prices in Denton County are lower than that. The discrepancy between what is getting reported in the media and what's actually happening at the closing table requires a dive into the actual closing data. For better or worse, the North Texas MLS does not require an adjusted sales price field that shows the real closing price [...]

Denton County Home Prices Turn Lower

Denton County home prices turned lower in August. Plentiful inventory and more economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the local real estate market. Consumers appear to be caught between a rock and a hard place with a softening job market and above-normal inflation. Mortgage rates have improved, but not enough to make a significant difference. Median home prices were 9.4 percent lower year-over-year across Denton County. Median single-family home prices declined by 10.2 percent compared to last year. There are still plenty of homes for sale in North Texas even after resale speculators pulled their [...]

Denton County Housing Market Continues to Normalize

Denton County's housing market continues to normalize. This healing process for the local market is challenging, but necessary. After massive distortions and market interventions, time is still the market's best friend. There are many industry participants who still want a quick fix, but it bears repeating. Artificially low rates and bailout stimulus helped create the savagely unaffordable U.S. housing market. Another quick "fix" is the last thing we need. Normal market interest rates have helped to bring more inventory back to the market. We've seen record amounts of inventory across many North Texas submarkets this [...]

Stagflation Continues for North Texas Housing Market

Stagflation continues to be the theme for the North Texas housing market. Sales and contract activity remain sluggish as DFW home prices remain at inflated levels. Home sales across North Texas slid 5.5 percent year-over-year in May. Sales were down 3.5 percent in Denton County. Collin County managed a 1 percent increase. Median prices slid 4.8% and 4.9 percent respectively in Denton and Collin Counties. That reversion to the mean has been a consistent trend so far in 2025. Severely strained housing affordability levels continue to take a toll on contract activity. At the same [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Surges to Record High

Denton County home inventory has quietly surged to a record high. Across North Texas, the supply of available homes has never been higher. The much-maligned housing shortage is a thing of the past. All it took was a little time and normal mortgage interest rates. There are now over 5,000 homes available in Denton County. That supply is well above the previous high in June of 2019. Denton County now has 4.4 months of supply. That's a 66 percent rise from last year. It's also well above inventory levels we saw prior to the pandemic. [...]

Tariff Chaos Breeds Economic Uncertainty

Tariff chaos is breeeding economic uncertainty. That uncertainty is filtering into the housing market. While President Trump was busy talking up Liberation Day and his beautiful tariff plan, he forgot to tell you his plan involves liberating you from your 401K retirement account balance. A stock market correction was already in play before Trump's tariff plan hit the tape, but the announcement itself (or more accurately the insanity of the plan) really disappointed Wall Street. Instead of the reciprocal tariffs and a rebalancing of trade, the markets received one of the most inept and misguided [...]

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