Housing Policy

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housing policy

False Narratives About The Housing Market Refuse To Die

False narratives about the U.S. housing market refuse to die. Mainstream media and real estate industry shills continue to deflect attention from the complex, but at the same time rather simple reasons behind the lack of housing affordability. Politico author, Lorraine Woellert, offers us a perfect example of everything that is wrong with the U.S. housing market, including the mainstream media reporting on it. I hadn't come across this piece previously, but having  now read it, there are a number of red flags that are worth calling out. Woellert seems appropriately concerned that only wealthy [...]

Denton County Home Sales Continued Sliding In December

Denton County home sales continued their slide in December as the Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market saw a 5th consecutive month of year-over-year declining sales activity. Denton County experienced an 11 percent decline in closed home sales along with a corresponding 11 percent decline in pending home sales activity. The drop in forward-looking contract activity suggests that a spring housing rebound may be a tough proposition. Home prices were still rising in many DFW submarkets in December, including Denton Texas where the average price of a home rose 11 percent to $274,012. Looking at a [...]

Hyper-Financialized DFW Housing Market Will Get Worse

The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales for November slid 7.7 percent compared to a year ago. Of course the headline you probably saw in the media was the 0.7 percent drop compared to October's decline in contract signings. With the stock market poised to finish one of the worst Decembers in recent memory, you can rest assured the hyper-financialized Dallas-Fort Worth housing market is going to get worse before it fully recovers. Chief economist, Lawrence Yun, attempted to diffuse concerns about sliding sales numbers in November in NAR's latest press release, but [...]

Powell Continues FOMC’s Legacy Of Serial Arsonists

The Federal Reserve FOMC announced another Federal Funds rate hike, raising the target rate to 2.5 percent. That was widely anticipated. What the market did not like was a less-than dovish stance from Jerome Powell and his merry band of serial arsonists, as he stuck to the script that everything is awesome in the land of milk and honey. Aside from the drop in 10-year Treasury yields, there are important ramifications for the real estate market as the failures of Federal Reserve policy, and the consequences that come with it, become increasingly evident. Make no [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Down Seven Percent In November

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales for November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 5.32 million. This was up slightly from October but still down seven percent compared to the same time last year. The spike in mortgage interest rates was still lingering over the real estate market in November. The median price of an existing home sold in November was $257,700 in November, a rise of 4.2 percent year-over-year and the 81st consecutive month of year-over-year home price increases. The average price of an existing home sold in November [...]

October New Home Sales Collapse, Near Three-Year Low

The Census Bureau numbers for October new home sales posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 544,000 units. This was way below expectations of a 575,000 print, and near a three-year low. As I have been detailing for much of the year, much of that "pent-up demand" that you hear real estate industry mouthpieces talking about is a giant work of fiction, a tired marketing ploy that the media, economists and Realtors have been using in attempt to justify grossly inflated home prices across the U.S. Well, it appears the cat is officially [...]

October Swoon Suggests Denton County Real Estate Market Correction Just Getting Started

Denton County's real estate market is going to post some very soft numbers again for October. Both closed and pending home sales are going to be down year-over-year while pending home sales are likely going to post a double-digit decline not just in Denton County, but for the entire Dallas-Fort Worth housing market. OUCH! Available home inventory is shooting higher across the DFW area. While notable economists at the Federal Reserve, local real estate "professionals" and even the "experts" at the RECenter at Texas A&M have been dismissing recent developments as just a cooling off [...]

Existing Home Sales Lowest In 3 Years With 4.1% September Drop

The National Association of Realtors reported the lowest levels for existing U.S. home sales in 3 years. Sales of existing homes posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5,115,000 for September, down from August numbers which were also revised lower. The year-over-year decline in existing home sales of 4.1 percent puts sales levels back to where they were three years ago. Existing home inventory at 1.88 million homes was up slightly from last year's 1.86 million units. NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, indicated that "higher interest rates have led to a decline in sales [...]

LGI Homes’ Beaver Creek In Denton TX A Haven For Wall Street Landlord

The quiet little community of Beaver Creek on the north side of Denton Texas offers a perfect portrait of what's wrong with the current housing market in the United states. Beaver Creek is an LGI Homes community that specializes in affordable starter homes priced in the mid to upper $200's. Having viewed the community earlier this year, I was interested to see how sales would progress since Denton Texas is a popular destination for DFW home shoppers looking for affordable homes. Denton home prices are generally more affordable than the average prices in the Dallas-Fort [...]

Hoisington Q3 Update – Deflationary Wave Of Debt Will Stifle Yields

The deflationary wave of debt growing within multiple facets of the U.S. economy will stifle yields. That's the gist of Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt's latest third quarter Review and Outlook. As the market was puking on the latest surge in Treasury yields above 3%, I couldn't help but notice that the publicly traded homebuilders were getting crushed yet again. With the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate touching 4.9 percent this week (levels not seen in 7 years), things were getting even uglier for the housing sector. There was nowhere to hide this week if [...]