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Denton County Unemployment Spikes To 12.9% In April

Denton County unemployment hit 12.9 percent in April, and the City of Denton saw unemployment spike to 14.1 percent last month. For the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, unemployment rose to 12.8 percent in April. Those were the sobering statistics from the Texas Workforce Commission. The destruction to the North Texas labor force created by the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns is hard to grasp, because the United States hasn't experienced anything similar since the Great Depression. Even after the Great Recession in 2008 U.S. unemployment levels peaked around 10 percent. The May unemployment numbers for Denton County [...]

Coronavirus Hits DFW Home Sales, But Prices Holding Up

DFW home sales took another hit in April. Home sales slid 18 percent during the month of April as the coronavirus took a toll on the Dallas-Fort Worth real restate market. Pending home sales slid even further, falling 24 percent for April. Despite the noticeable seasonal increase in activity during the past few weeks, it appears the spring/summer selling rush we would typically expect is going to be muted by Covid-19 this year. With over 33 million Americans filing for unemployment during the past two months, a downturn in real estate activity should be expected. [...]

U.S. New Home Sales Fall 9.5% To 627,000 SAAR

The Census Bureau reported new home sales (contracts) for March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 627,000. That was 15.4 percent below the revised February rate and down 9.5% from the same time a year ago. As a reminder, the Census counts a new home sale at the time of contract signing, not the actual closing. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic we actually have a more relevant, forward-looking indicator of new home sales activity, similar to the pending sales metric we would use in the MLS. The median new home sales [...]

Denton County New Home Prices Fall 12 Percent

Average new home prices in Denton County were 12 percent lower than the same time a year ago. Updated NTREIS Trends figures show a 7.2 percent decline in the median price for a new home in Denton County while average prices of new construction slid 11.7 percent from March of last year. New home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have been on a continued a downward trend since the summer of 2017. The reason in one word...affordability. The trend of the incredible shrinking new home and lot size throughout the DFW area is going [...]

Reckoning Awaits For Inflated North Texas Real Estate Market

The reckoning awaits for the hyper-financialized north Texas real estate market.  It may take a few months for reality to sink in, but the writing is on the wall regardless of the efforts of housing industry pundits and professional economists to downplay the damage. The hopes of a v-shaped recovery are vanishing faster than the toilet paper on the shelves of your local grocery store. Many of the supposed experts, like the PhD economists employed at the Texas Real Estate Center at A&M, have turned a blind eye to the artificial inflation in Texas real [...]

North Texas Home Sales Climb Higher In February As Yields Collapse

North Texas home sales rose again in February as record low mortgage interest rates continued to support the local real estate market. Dallas-Fort Worth saw sales rise 8 percent in February while pending sales were roughly 13 percent higher. The median price of a DFW home jumped 6 percent compared to a year ago, while the average price rose 7.7 percent. The supply of North Texas homes on the market dropped 13 percent to 2.6 months of supply. Denton County homes sales spiked 18 percent higher last month while pending sales rose about 15 percent [...]

New Home Sales For December Post At 694,000 SAAR

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 694,000. This was slightly lower than downwardly-revised November figures, but up 23 percent compared to December 2018 when the markets were sliding off a cliff. The median price of a new house sold in December 2019 was $331,400 while the average sales price was $384,500. Both figures represent slight price increases from last year and noticeable jumps from prices in November. The supply of new homes for sale stood at 5.7 months. Despite the downward revisions to previous [...]

North Texas Finishes Year With Strong December Home Sales

North Texas finished the year with strong December home sales. NTREIS data indicate home sales jumped 13 percent compared to the same time last year. Median home prices rose 5.1 percent, and average home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area rose 5.5 percent in December. The supply of homes for sale dropped about 7 percent to 25, 503 in December. December provided another easy year-over-year comparison. At the end of 2018 the North Texas real estate market was experiencing a pronounced slump amid rising interest rates. There was also a big swan dive in the [...]

Easy Comparisons Coming To An End For DFW Housing Market

The easy year-over-year comparisons are coming to an end for the DFW housing market. Dallas-Fort Worth home sales rose one percent in November compared to the same time a year ago, while pending home sales were about 5 percent higher. DFW is capping off 2019 with nice little rebound in real estate sector. Next year the easy comparisons for the housing market will be a thing of the past. That 117 basis point drop in mortgage rates we saw for November won't be there to stimulate sales. Area home prices which were inflated by the [...]

October New Home Sales Rise On Easy Comparison

On the surface, the Census Bureau's 31.6% year-over-year increase in new home sales for October looks spectacular. To put it in context, however, new home sales are simply responding to the Federal Reserve's market interventions and that spectacular plunge in mortgage interest rates providing a very easy year-over-year comparison. On a monthly basis, new home sales dipped about one percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 units. The longer term view shows new home sales still rising on a steady path out of the abyss. Along with the big drop in [...]