New home sales received a slight boost in December. The Census Bureau reported new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units. This was in line with expectations, but previous months were revised lower. The median price of a new home in the U.S. was $16,900 lower in December. Sales were also helped by mortgage rates dropping roughly half a percentage point.

The supply of new homes dipped in December, but finished inventory continues to grow. There are now 1.4 months of completed new construction inventory in the U.S. There is plenty more waiting in the backlog. The Census Bureau is still overestimating new home sales in the current cycle.

The sharp rise in cancellation rates in recent months means the Census is behind the curve and overshooting on the number of contracts. The country’s largest home builder, D.R. Horton saw its cancellation rate spike to 27 percent in the latest quarter. Some builders like KB Home have experienced cancellation rates as high as 68 percent during the last quarter of 2022.

This all goes to say that you should take the Census sales estimates with a big grain of salt until those cancellation rates move back to normal. Expect more monthly revisions on the numbers this year. The growing supply of backlogged construction nearing completion should continue to put downward pressure on home prices in the months ahead. This exactly what we’ve been experiencing in the North Texas market.

Builders have moved some inventory in the past few months with price cuts and rate buy-downs. Inventory continues to sit in communities where builders have held on to inflated pricing. Communities like Celina and Prosper Texas are still sitting on over 6 months supply of new homes. There are also smaller submarkets like Sanger Texas which have more than 9 months of new construction inventory. Affordability is the key to moving inventory in the current market.

If you are in the market for a new home, it’s likely going to be a waiting game in terms of better pricing. Builders have made it pretty clear they aren’t going to hand over those unearned profits and pricing power willingly. With unprecedented pricing power during the pandemic and the dearth of resale homes for sale, builders had no problem gouging customers for record high prices and inflated profits. Most builders are trying to throttle their backlog into the market to avoid lower prices where the market will allow it.

We have already seen that some builders will also try to sell their inventory to Wall Street investors if they are willing to outbid owner-occupant buyers. For the moment builders are still sitting on decent margins despite the spike in cancellation rates. This is a big reason why the price cuts on inventory have been sporadic for the most part. Motivation has improved, but there has been no capitulation in the new home sector. From that perspective it appears Powell’s work is far from done. New home prices are still too high for most prospective buyers and certainly far higher than pre-pandemic prices.

Should be an interesting spring selling season.