Denton County’s available home inventory reached a new record high in June. The supply of homes for sale in this part of North Texas is up 670 percent from the Covid lows. Denton County reached 5 months of supply in June. That’s a 43 percent increase from last year. Amid the new stagflationary market, closed sales rose 9.3 percent in June. Pending contracts fell 3.7 percent.
Home prices remain stuck in the mud across North Texas. Median home prices in Denton County fell 3.4 percent year-over-year in June. Average prices declined 4.9 percent. A softening economy and normal mortgage interest rates continue to create challenges for prospective buyers after a huge dose of home price inflation.
While the new FHFA director continues to scream for lower interest rates, the bond market remains range bound. The Federal Reserve may end up lowering the Fed Funds rates this year, but it might not matter. With Trump’s Tariff Tantrum 2.0, inflationary expectations remain elevated.
Area Rents Still Soft
Single-family rents in Denton County remain in their flat to downward trend. Median rents for single-family homes were flat year-over-year in June. Average rents declined 0.9 percent. The latest report from Apartment List shows rents for area apartments down 3.4 percent from this time last year. You don’t have to go too far to find a move-in special on new apartments in Denton County.
Disconnect Between New Home Builders and Existing Sellers
Area home inventory has continued to climb in 2025 largely because of the disconnect between builders and existing home sellers. Builders are professional sellers, and they have been ramping up the incentives to keep the pipeline moving this year. Existing home owners are a different story. Many resale owners continue fishing for lofty prices which don’t make sense in the current market. Smarter sellers who actually need to move have been adjusting their expectations.
We can see this disconnect in motivation levels from the months of supply. Builders across Denton County have kept sales steady this year, currently at 3.5 months of supply. That’s up a modest 6 percent from last year. Contrast that with the 55 percent increase in months of supply for existing resale homes. Denton County now has 5.6 months of supply for existing resale inventory. We didn’t see that kind of inventory even during the Great Recession of 2008. Denton County has over 4,600 existing homes available for sale.
Stagflation Continues
It’s no real secret in terms of what has changed. Years of artificial demand stimulus via fiscal and monetary policy cooked the golden goose. The Fed and successive administrations pulled the levers to drive home prices to the moon, and out of reach for many Americans relying on income to purchase a home. Affordability concerns were tossed to the wind to keep juicing the pig and keep sales volumes and credit creation growing.
What remains is a stagflationary housing market and a U.S. economy addicted to cheap money and artificial stimulus. The Big Beautiful Bill is just the latest iteration of fiscal profligacy to keep the dream alive. Nothing says Make America Great Again like an additional $3 trillion piled on to the national debt while you cut funding and services for veterans and children.
If you are in the market to buy or sell a home, be safe out there. Mortgage rates will continue to respond to inflationary expectations and the bond market’s signals. No amount of whining by crony capitalists will change that. Area home prices continue to respond to those supply & demand fundamentals. Volatility will likely be with us for a while.
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