Denton County experienced the worst October contract activity in over a decade. You’d have to go back to 2013 to see a slower housing market than what we experienced last month. Closed sales were down 18 percent year-over-year in Denton County. Pending contracts were down 26% from a year ago.
Median Denton County home prices slid 1.7 percent from October of last year to $430,000. Average prices were roughly unchanged. Prices were slightly lower on a per square foot basis. Area home builders continue to churn out the incentives to move inventory. That’s keeping a lid on prices across Denton County. Existing home sellers are having to compete with those discounts and incentives.
Percolating inflation, declining wage growth and a K-shaped economy have essentially erased any sales momentum we had going earlier in the year. This has kept the mean reversion theme intact for most of North Texas as prices adjust to normal mortgage rates. Overall contract activity is still sluggish as we head into the end of the year.
Policy Errors Bury the GOP with a Blue Wave
The November 3rd election results were a stunning rebuke of Trump’s war in Iran and continued policy errors. 2026 has been a pretty remarkable dud for the housing market. Trump loyalists were probably hoping the self-proclaimed real estate mogul would be better for the real estate market. Instead, Trump has revealed himself to be an insanely corrupt, gaslighting egomaniacal con artist. It’s not like there weren’t warning signs many chose to ignore over the years.
It’s more than a bit ironic Trump’s legacy will forever be remembered for turning Texas blue in 2026. While Trump was busy trying to drum up support for his Texas toadies Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott, voters weren’t buying the bullshit. Trump continued to ignore the hard data surrounding his trickle-down economy as he tried to convince voters everything was awesome. We know it was certainly awesome for the Trump family and their circle of self-dealing corrupt insiders, but regular working Americans were getting buried by Trump’s Golden Age of Grift.
October marked the seventh consecutive month where inflation outpaced wage growth. By doing Bibi’s bidding and igniting another war in the Middle East, Trump sacrificed working Americans and consumers at the altar of greed and corruption. Trump insisted it was a small price to pay so Netanyahu could have more weapons to keep murdering innocent people in Gaza. While world leaders were condemning the genocide in Gaza, Trump, Abbott, and the Israel/AIPAC-funded stooges planted within the U.S. political structure were happy to ignore reality when it suited their agenda.
Where to From Here?
With a reset in the political structure in both Texas and across the U.S., I’m hopeful we might get back to taking care of things here at home. A true “America First” policy would mean supporting domestic infrastructure and spending. True America First economic policy would entail investments in real estate that facilitate home ownership and affordable housing. We’ve had very little of that so far in Trump’s second term.
The North Texas housing market continues to digest normal mortgage interest rates and a bifurcated economy. The tech wreck over the last month has helped to cool bond yields, but inflation is still percolating at roughly double the Fed’s target rate of two percent. Oil prices and fuel prices have also cooled off following the election. The market seems to be digesting less support in Congress for Trump’s ill-advised war.
If we can avoid another blowup in the Middle East, mortgage rates might stand a chance of stabilizing below seven percent. There may also be less appetite for ballooning deficits.
If you are in the market to buy a home here at the end of the year, the inventory and deals are plentiful. If you need to sell an existing property, it’s still a challenging market. Builders are working to clear out inventory to hit their year-end earnings and sales targets.
North Texas Home Affordability is Still Strained
Now that we’ve cooked the golden goose, there’s no easy way out of the affordability mess. The best we can probably hope for is time and some market stability. It probably wouldn’t hurt to see Congress shift economic policy focus to start favoring workers instead of capital. It will be difficult to close this affordability gap without significant improvement in wages and income.
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