The Iran War Tax is filtering into the housing market. Inflationary pressures from higher fuel costs are now eating away at housing demand while Americans’ household budgets get slammed with yet another policy blunder. The spring of 2026 was poised to see a rebound in housing activity. Resale inventory has returned to the market and mortgage interest rates seemed like they might stabilize below six percent.

Those green shoots for North Texas real estate have been upended by the Trump administration’s colossal blunder in the Middle East on behalf of Israel. Fuel prices are up fifty percent or more in some U.S. markets compared to the start of the year. The spiraling price of diesel and jet fuel has hit business and industry worldwide. Spiking fuel prices put the nail in the coffin for Spirit Airlines, causing them to file for bankruptcy. Major airlines are cutting flights and routes in response to the record high prices and uncertainty of business conditions.

Consumers are feeling the pain at the pump. The pain is severe enough that politicians are playing the gas tax suspension card again. That card trick doesn’t solve the $30 billion war tax caused by the spike in fuel prices. The Iran war tax is a real tax Americans are now paying every day. At current prices, Americans will watch an extra $500 million go up in fumes and smoke today alone. The Iran war premium is adding roughly $1.40 per gallon now for American drivers. By the end of the week the bill for Trump’s epic Middle East blunder will climb to $30 billion.

Consumer price inflation for April rose to annual rate of inflation of 3.8 percent. I’m old enough to remember when William Pulte Jr. was Tweeting earlier this year that Trump had killed Biden’s inflation.

Let Them Eat Cake

Washington’s “Let Them Eat Cake” response has been nothing short of tone deaf. While the Trump family is busy enriching themselves at the expense of the American economy, the housing market continues to suffer the consequences of continued policy errors and the Golden age of grift.

Denton County home sales were starting to perk up with the spring weather in April. Closings were up 12 percent year-over-year. Pending contracts came in flat as a pancake. Area home prices are still in correction mode. Median home prices in Denton County were 6.5 percent lower year-over-year in April. Average prices fell by 4.7 percent.

Home Builders Still Eating Your Lunch

Area home builders were certainly busy closing out that unsold inventory this spring. The average price of a new home in Denton County collapsed 21 percent from April of last year. The supply of unsold new homes was at a cycle high last month. This is why builders have cut back on some of their starts and permits. Builders are still printing money, but they are more reluctant to carry finished spec inventory in 2026. The longer a home sits in inventory, the more likely it is to receive a price reduction.

Renting is the Next Best Option

When home prices and housing payments are still expensive, renting isn’t a bad option. Abundant rental inventory has provided some relief for Denton Area shoppers. Apartment rents are 10.1 percent lower year-over-year in May according to Apartment List. The correction in Denton apartment rents has been the sharpest drop in the DFW region. Abundant multifamily inventory and the downturn of local university enrollments has led to a renter’s market in the city of Denton.

Median single-family lease prices in the city of Denton fell 7.2 percent year-over-year in April. Median single-family rents were 1.8 percent lower across Denton County in April. After the insane spike in 2022, single-family rents are still 30 percent more expensive than where they were prior to the pandemic. Rents would need to fall another $200 before they came back to the historical trend.