Housing Policy

housing policy

QE Or Bust – US Yield Curve Continues To Flatten

Behold the flattening U.S. yield curve! Reading through the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, you might get the impression that things are still humming along just fine. After all total household debt just hit a new high in the latest survey posting at $12.96 trillion. Mortgage debt is still below the previous bubble peak, so home buyers would appear to be doing doing just fine. If you peak below the headline metrics, however, you begin to see some cracks in the "everything is awesome" narrative. One of the first things that stands [...]

More Denton County Homes For Sale As QE Unwind Begins

As the Federal Reserve begins their QE unwind, one interesting metric to watch will be the number of Denton County homes for sale. The number of Denton TX homes for sale was up 34 percent year-over-year in October. In Denton County inventory was roughly 18 percent higher through October. In Collin County the number of homes for sale was up a surprising 38 percent compared to last year. Reading between the lines, it appears the Goldilocks economy that the DFW area has enjoyed for the past 5 years is due for some consolidation. The inventory [...]

DFW Home Prices Pushing Limits Of Affordability

DFW home prices have been on a tear during the last 5 years. That begs the question of whether the recent price gains are sustainable. The answer to that inquiry generally boils down to who is selling what. In our hyper-financialized housing market it is not surprising when real estate practitioners or lenders suggest that we are not in a housing bubble. Whether you call it a housing bubble or not, there is no denying that the past decade has seen some dramatic shifts in the real estate market. Dallas/Fort Worth is certainly part of [...]

Dallas Home Prices Challenge Builders

Dallas home prices are expensive, and builders are finally getting the message. That's the news from the most recent data on home starts in the DFW area, which reportedly surged in the 3rd quarter. Builders reportedly started 8,853 single-family homes in the DFW metroplex. For the 12 months ending in September there were apparently 32,234 permits recorded. This was the highest total in a decade. More interestingly, builders' starts for houses under $500,000 rose by 14.5% during the past year. Builders are finally waking up to the fact that the Dallas Fort Worth housing market [...]

Student Loan Debt Delaying Home Purchases

First-time home buyers and millennials are having a pretty difficult time keeping pace in the current housing market, and student loan debt is a significant part of the problem. The National Association of Realtors and American Student Assistance study, Student Loan Debt and Housing Report for 2017, provides a number of interesting examples of how debt is keeping home purchase activity subdued. The study The amount of student loans in the United States now exceeds $1.45 trillion, and the growth shows no signs of slowing. One of the more interesting findings of the study is [...]

Foreign Buyers Still Flooding U.S. Real Estate Market

The the volume of foreign buyers buying U.S. residential real estate rose dramatically during the latest 12-month survey from the National Association of Realtors. The 2017 Profile of International Activity in U.S. Residential Real Estate shoes that the dollar volume of purchases by foreign buyers rose from $102.6 billion in 2016 to $153 billion in the latest 12-month period ending in March. In all, foreign buyers purchased 284,455 U.S. residential properties accounting for 5 percent of existing home sales and 10% of existing home sales by dollar volume. If you were wondering what's been driving the [...]

New Home Sales Rebound In May

The Census Bureau reported a rebound for new home sales in May. New residential home sales posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000. This was 2.9 percent higher than the revised April numbers and 8.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price of a new home contracted in May was $345,800 while the average new home price in May came in at $406,400. Just like we saw with existing home sales this week, median home prices hit a new all-time high. New home sales volume, while up from last month, is [...]

NAR: Existing Home Sales Cool In February

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales cooled to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in February. Sales of existing homes fell 3.7 from January levels but were 5.4 percent higher year-over-year. NAR continues to fret about an inventory shortage when the real culprit is elevated home prices in general. Existing home sales are still treading at levels well below the previous cycle peak. As I have said repeatedly, there is no shortage of homes for sale. There is a shortage of affordable homes for sale, homes that real working [...]

Financialization Of Housing And The Disturbing Gap In New Home Sales

The financialization of the U.S. housing market has led to a rather disturbing gap in new home sales relative to existing home sales. This is a subject I was referencing this week when I mentioned the problem builders are facing with the lack of affordable land to build new homes on. Today the Census Bureau reported new home sales for January came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 555,000. Previous months were also revised lower, with November taking a significant haircut. On a year-over-year basis January new home sales were up 5.5 percent. [...]

NAR Finally Gets Real About Home Affordability Issues

The National Association of Realtors is out with a new method of gauging home affordability. As part of NAR's look at the the growing rift between housing availability and home affordability, NAR has developed a new affordability distribution curve and a home affordability score. The new monthly research is designed to look at home affordability conditions among different income percentiles, gauging how many homes on the market are actually affordable to various buyer income groups. The new affordability distribution curve and score show that many U.S. homes are no longer affordable to typical prospective buyers. [...]

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