New Home Sales Soften In October

New home sales for October came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000. This was below forecasts, and the previous three months of new home sales were revised downward by 34,000 units. Even with the decline, new home sales were still 17.8 percent higher than October of last year. The Census report for new residential sales in October showed a median new home price of $304,500 with the average price at $354,900. Median prices were higher than a year ago, but the average price was $12,000 less than last year. It appears the [...]

Single-Family Permits Flat In October As Housing Starts Jump

Single-family permits fell flat in October. That's the news from today's Census numbers on October construction starts and permits. The unadjusted single-family permits data show 60,500 new single family permits for October 2016, virtually unchanged from last year's 60,300 print. Headline numbers for housing starts show a huge 23.3 percent YoY increase, and a 21.7 percent increase in single-family starts during October. Not seasonally adjusted, single-family starts rose almost 25 percent year-over-year. It certainly appears we will see more new home sales revisions in the months ahead. If homebuilders actually did put more inventory on [...]

Lennar Homes Q1 2015 Earnings Report Has Fed’s Policy Errors Written All Over It

Lennar Homes reported first quarter results for 2015, and the report had the Fed's policy errors written all over it. The Houston numbers from Lennar were particularly revealing since the Federal Reserve has managed to obliterate the real economy once again, and a good portion of the housing market along with it. Lennar reported first quarter revenues of $1.6 billion, a rise of 21 percent. Deliveries of new homes were up by 19 percent. Lennar's homebuilding revenues rose 17.1 percent for the quarter compared to last year. Unfortunately Lennar's homebuilding expenses rose 18.9 percent year-over-year. [...]

January New Home Sales Beat Expectations

The Census Bureau reported that new homes sales were better than expected in January, posting at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000 vs expectations of 471,000. The inventory of new U.S homes stood at 5.4 months of supply in January. Bad weather apparently wasn't an issue, as sales in the Midwest rose 21 percent for the month. The average price of a new home was $348,300 in January, down sharply from December but up 3.2 percent from a year ago. This was a decent report for home builders, but now the real challenge begins. [...]

By | 2016-09-29T13:15:47+00:00 February 25th, 2015|Development, Economy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

Margin Squeeze: Lennar Homes Reports Higher Revenues But Lower Prices In Houston TX

Lennar Homes reported fourth quarter earnings this morning, and it appears the margin squeeze story is going to be a recurring issue for home builders. Lennar reported home building revenues that were 32 percent higher for the quarter compared to 2013. The only problem is that their expenses for the quarter were 33 percent higher. Lennar reported that margins are going to be pressured going foward, and all you have to do is look at their Houston numbers to see why. Lennar Homes breaks Houston out as a separate division. Lennar delivered 768 homes for [...]

By | 2016-05-20T14:22:20+00:00 January 15th, 2015|Development, Economy, Markets, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

KB Home Reports Q4 2014 Results, Cuts Guidance, Pulls Out Of Houston Land Deals

KB Home reported results for the fourth quarter of 2014 that were higher by 29 percent. The only problem was that the revenue came courtesy of a community count that was also 19% higher than a year ago. For the full year, KB Home reported revenues of $2.40 billion, up 14% from 2013 figures. KB reported that the overall average selling price for their homes was $328,400 in 2014, an increase of 13 percent from the previous year. This summarizes the problem facing KB and all of the other publicly traded home builders. New home [...]

By | 2016-05-20T14:23:43+00:00 January 13th, 2015|Development, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|0 Comments

Toll Brothers Q4 2014 Results: Higher Prices, Flat Contracts, Higher Cancellation Rate

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers released fourth quarter earnings results today. As expected, Toll reported higher average sale prices and higher earnings.  Toll reported a 39 percent rise in net income for the quarter on a 29 percent increase in revenues. The average price of a home delivered in Q4 was $747,00 compared to $703,000 in Q4 of last year. Toll Brothers has made a significant expansion into the Houston market, and Houston area sales probably made a significant contribution to Toll's bottom line in the latest quarter. Toll currently sells in 9 different communities in [...]

By | 2016-09-29T14:21:15+00:00 December 10th, 2014|Development, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises In Novermber

The National Association of Home Builders reported that confidence among home builders rebounded in November, with a reading of 58 on the housing market index. The South region posted a four point gain to 62. So far this year, the builder confidence gauge seems to be a little ahead of actual new home sales. “Low interest rates, affordable home prices and solid job creation are contributing to a steady housing recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “After a slow start to the year, the HMI has remained above the 50-point benchmark for five consecutive [...]

By | 2014-11-18T16:54:34+00:00 November 18th, 2014|Development, Housing Market, New Home Sales|0 Comments

August New Home Sales Likely Weaker Than Census Numbers – Mortgage Purchase Apps Down 16% YoY

Yesterday the Census Bureau told us that new home sales posted some of the best numbers in years. The problem is, that report is not supported by actual builder sales reports or real mortgage purchase applications. The new home sales report for August showed that sales were 33 percent higher than the same time last year, even as the average selling price was at a record high. If you believe that Census report, I have some nice waterfront property I would like to sell you in West Texas. The views of the pump jacks are included [...]

Lennar Homes Q3 Report: Lower Average Sales Prices For Houston Deliveries And New Orders

I had a chance to look at Lennar's 2014 third quarter results, and there were some interesting numbers for Houston. Lennar of course touted higher earnings and revenues across the board, but if you look further down past the headlines you see that Lennar is also active in the multifamily construction space as well. Lennar's gross margin inched up to 25.2% in the third quarter from 24.9 percent last year. Sales incentives to buyers rose $1700 from the same quarter last year, up to $20,400 per home delivered in Q3 2014. Houston Texas is its [...]

By | 2016-11-20T15:54:03+00:00 September 18th, 2014|Development, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|1 Comment