DFW New Homes

DR Horton Posts Higher Sales And Orders On Lower Average Prices

Dallas-Fort Worth-based DR Horton released fourth quarter numbers showing an 11 percent increase in home closings for the latest three months ending September 30. The company also posted a 11 percent jump in new net sales orders for the fiscal fourth quarter. With 51,857 homes sold during the past year, DR Horton still edges out Lennar as the country's largest home builder by volume. While DR Horton posted solid results on new home sales and profitability in the latest quarter, the housing slowdown is still evident digging into the company's latest numbers. In the midst [...]

New Home Sales Fall 13.2 Percent In September As Inventory Rises 34 Percent

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September this morning at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000. This was 5.5 percent below revised August numbers and a 13.2% drop from September last year. The numbers for September new home sales were well below estimates, and they came on top of big downward revisions for previous months as well. Both the median price ($320,000) and the average price ($377,200) were below prices seen last year. The supply of new homes on the market swelled to 7.1 months in September. That translates to a 34% [...]

Yield Surge Hits Already Beaten Down Homebuilder Stocks

The yield surge experienced this week certainly took its toll on homebuilder stocks. As the yield on the benchmark U.S.  10 -Year Treasury eclipsed 3.2 percent this week, you could hear the air coming out of the publicly traded homebuilder sector. The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index was down 27% as of yesterday's close. The year-to-date declines in the stocks of publicly traded homebuilders certainly don't echo the "remarkably positive" economic circumstances that Fed chair Jerome Powell was playing up this week. I can only assume he was referring to the Wall Street bonus [...]

New Home Sales Rise 3.5%, Up 12.7% Year-Over Year

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 units. This was in line with expectations, but previous months were revised downward. The August numbers for new home sales indicated a month-over-month increase of 3.5% and a 12.7% increase above August of last year, a relatively easy comparison. Sales of new homes are up 6.9% year-to-date through August when compared to the same period last year. The median price of a new home contracted in August was $320,200, down about $8,000 from last month, but higher than [...]

New Home Builders Clipped By Weak Order Growth

New home builders had a relatively rough week with several major publicly-traded builders experiencing some nasty haircuts in their stock prices. With the exception of DR Horton, it wasn't a good week for home builder stocks. While Facebook and Twitter were seeing record drops in their share prices, new home builders were also experiencing a hangover from weak growth in new home orders. The Dow Jones Home Construction Index has trended lower for most of the year, down almost 18 percent year-to-date. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand why the index peaked just [...]

Denton Home Sales Soar In June As DFW Sales Swoon

DFW home sales fell in June with the diminishing supply of affordable homes. Home prices are still rising in many DFW submarkets, but sales are cooling in the more expensive submarkets. NTREIS stats reflect a sales decline of roughly 3-4 percent in June in the Dallas-Fort Worth area compared to the same month last year. The same held true in Denton County where sales also fell 3-4% compared to last year. The city of Denton bucked the trend in June with a 30 percent sales gain in June. How? In a word, it was all [...]

New Home Sales Increase To 689,000 Annual Rate In May

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689,000 units. This was above forecasts, but previous months were revised lower. According to Census figures the median price of a new single-family home sold in May was $313,000, more than $10,600 LESS than last year's median price. The average price of a new home contracted in May was $368,500, or $9,900 less than May of last year. Putting the May numbers from Census into context with local new home sales, the numbers look plausible. May was a pretty [...]

New Home Sales Rise Less Than Expected In April

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for April that were a little lighter than expected. April new home sales posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000. The previous three months were revised lower, with March sales seeing a significant downward revision. The average price of a new home contracted in April was $407,300, a sharp increase from the same time a year ago. The median price of a new home sold (contract signing) was roughly flat at $312,400. That dramatically higher average contract price in April offers a good clue as to [...]

Toll Brothers Stock Trips On Higher Cancellation Rate

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers reported fiscal second quarter results today, and Mr. Market was not amused. Toll Brothers net income declined for the latest quarter as did income from operations. Income from operations fell from 10.1 percent of revenues last year to 8.4 percent of revenues in Q2 2018. Perhaps more concerning was the jump in Toll's cancellation rate, rising from 3.5 percent last year to 5.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018. While the absolute percentage may seem small, this is actually a significant development when you consider that Toll can be extremely [...]

Denton TX Mortgage Rates Highest In 7 Years

Denton TX mortgage rates reached their highest levels in 7 years according to the latest weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. With Denton area home prices at record levels home sales activity and prices could soon be affected. As I have detailed in previous posts, you can already see this happening in many of the more expensive DFW submarkets. It is rather ironic that the Fed's latest Quarterly Report On Household Debt and Credit shows that debt rose for a 15th consecutive quarter with the latest increase fueled by mortgages and student loans. The real [...]

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