Denton Tx New Homes

Denton County Housing Market – Calm Before the Storm?

The Denton County housing market experienced a temporary lift in the first two months of the year. February home sales bounced from the January lows putting them 15 percent higher than the same month last year. Pending sales were up 23 percent in February across Denton County. Median and average home prices bounced slightly during the month. The available supply of homes dipped to just 1.7 months. As more sellers and builders chopped prices in recent months, more buyers stepped back into the market. Percent of original list price has made marginal improvements for the past [...]

Demand Destruction Hitting Denton County Housing Market

Demand destruction continues to hit the Denton County housing market. The Federal Reserve's housing reset and tighter policy led to a 28 percent slide in home sales in November. Pending contracts for homes were down 24 percent from the same time a year ago. In reality sales numbers are softer than official estimates. We still have another 6 months or so before we'll see more accurate comparisons on sales totals with new construction sales consistently in the MLS. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications are still running about 40 percent lower than [...]

New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

North Texas Housing Market in Full-Blown Correction Mode

The North Texas housing market is now in full-blown correction mode. The Federal Reserve's housing market "reset" message is finally sinking in. Home sales volumes continue to slide. Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continue to drop from their blow-off peaks earlier this year. Mortgage interest rates have spiked to seven percent, while the Fed puts the balance sheet roll-off into high gear. The correction in real estate prices has caused many of the larger asset owners, particularly those in the private equity space and the consultants who serve them, to lose their minds. [...]

Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

New Home Sales Market Finally Cooling Off

The market for new home sales is finally cooling off. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for March at 735,000 units (SAAR). This was 8.6% below the revised February estimate. It was also a 12.6% drop from March of last year. The median sales price of a new home contracted in March 2022 was $436,700. The average sales price was $523,900. Those were both new record highs. The unadjusted inventory of new homes stood at 5.7 months, up from 5.3 in February. Sky high prices and rising interest rates are now acting to cool [...]

New Home Sales Begin Slide As Interest Rates Rise

New home sales are beginning to slide as rising rates clamp down on the housing market euphoria. The Census Bureau reported February new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 772,000 units. That's a 2 percent slide from January and down 6.2 percent from last year. The unadjusted February sales estimate shows 65,000 new homes sold. That translates to a 7 percent slide year-over-year. The median price of a new home came in at $400,600. The average price posted at $511,000, a new record high for the series. It's interesting to note [...]

Collateral Damage Coming to the North Texas Housing Market

Collateral damage in the North Texas housing market is beginning to reveal itself. Inflation is at a fresh 40-year high. Homes have never been more expensive, and interest rates are on the rise. Official consumer price inflation just printed at an annual pace of 7.9 percent. This is with many of the official CPI metrics understating actual inflation. This is also before the spike in global energy markets with the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine. While many housing industry pundits were clinging to the slight drop in mortgage rates last week, that blip is now a [...]

New Home Sales Fall as Rising Rates Temper Demand

New home sales fell in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 801,000 units. The previous three months were revised higher. Census Bureau estimates put new home sales 4.5 percent below the revised December numbers. New home sales were 19.3 percent lower than January of last year. The median price of a new home contracted in January was $423,300. The average sales price of a new home posted at $496,900. That was a new all-time high. Median and average new home prices both hit new record highs in North Texas in January. On [...]

North Texas Housing Market Correction Taking Shape

A housing market correction is coming to North Texas. Don't say you weren't warned. The data points have been piling up for months. The only question remaining is how this all plays out, or more specifically how much pain the Fed is willing to tolerate. Inflation Rages Today's headline print for CPI inflation came in at a red-hot 7.5%. Despite many experts' assumptions that inflation would be moderating, core inflation has actually been increasing in each of the last three month's readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jerome Powell and the FOMC decided to [...]

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