DFW Home Prices

Balance Sheet Unwind Hits Reverse As Interest Paid To Banks Soars

True to form, the Federal Reserve is taking a rather cautious approach to their balance sheet unwind with this week's System Open Market Account (SOMA) report showing an INCREASE of a $million in the Fed's bloated account holdings. So much for unwinding!  If you were wondering how equity markets could be marching to new highs every week in the face of tepid organic economic growth, you have your answer. Today's inflation numbers show that the Federal Reserve still can't seem to generate any inflation in the economy, with core inflation rising only 1.8% year-over-year. Home [...]

The Truth About DFW Housing Demand

The Dallas Morning News real estate desk just floated an interesting piece on housing demand in the DFW real estate market. According to the regurgitated Zillow source, almost 40 percent of Dallas area homes sold for more than asking price last year, and the median amount buyers paid over asking price was 5.7 percent or $12,023. Fortunately we have data from the North Texas Real Estate Information System to do a quick fact-check on this story. As it turns out Zillow's story doesn't hold water. Looking at the source of the Zillow story showing buyers chomping [...]

Another Fed “Senior Economist” Demonstrates Willful Ignorance

The Federal Reserve and its army of economists continue to demonstrate willful ignorance of their failed policies. This week it was the Kansas City Fed's Jordan Rappaport who penned another dose of misdirection on the housing market. Rappaport's piece, "Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases: The Outlook for Housing in 2018" is yet another example of how the Federal Reserve touts itself as a champion of real economy while they continue toe the line for Wall Street and wealthy investors. In the usual captured culture of Fed Mr. Rappaport lays out the theme of continued [...]

Denton County Home Construction Marches Higher

Denton County home construction pushed higher at the end of 2017, with the number of new homes on the market up over 16 percent. That figure is likely even higher since some new home construction is intentionally left out of the multiple listing service by home builders to avoid spooking potential home buyers with any obvious inventory gluts. Recent numbers from Dallas-based Residential Strategies showed construction starts in the DFW area up 20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017. The increase in construction is a welcome sign, particularly since resale home inventory continues to [...]

Denton County Real Estate 2018: All Eyes On The Fed

As we embrace the new year, and the freezing temperatures that arrived with it, Denton County real estate prices continued to climb higher as sales continue to grow at a measured pace. The housing boom seen during the last 4-5 years has been impressive by any standards. As the Fed continues its much anticipated balance sheet "normalization", there is a lot at stake for local real estate markets.  The U.S. housing market is now heavily dependent on Fed stimulus, in the form of artificially depressed mortgage interest rates, and the artificial "wealth effect" created by [...]

Tax “Reform” Makes Denton County Property Taxes Even Less Appealing

The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act was signed into law this week, and a significant portion of your Denton County property taxes may no longer be deductible under the new law in 2018. Aside from being one of the worst researched and most ill-conceived pieces of legislation in modern history, the new tax bill is very favorable to corporate America. Unfortunately the new tax "reform" is not exactly friendly to home ownership. It remains to be seen how the new tax law will affect DFW area home prices, but the new rules certainly don't favor [...]

Denton County Home Prices Closing Year On High Note

Denton County home prices and sales volume have remained strong into the holiday season. After experiencing a soft patch in September home sales in Denton County resumed their march higher. It would appear that home prices in the Denton area are poised to hit new highs at the end of the year if momentum continues. Median home prices in Denton were about 3 percent higher through November, while median prices in Denton County jumped 11 percent compared to a year ago. Average prices in Denton County also reflect a 10 percent increase through November. Denton [...]

New Home Sales Jump In October, Average Prices Hit New High

New home sales continued to enjoy a hurricane-related boost in October. The Census Bureau reported new single-family home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, up 6.2 percent from revised September numbers and 18.7 percent higher than a year ago. The median price of a new home in October was $312,800 while the average price of a new home was $400,200. The talking heads will no doubt see this as a boon for the housing industry, and the numbers are certainly encouraging. That being said, I wouldn't read too much into the volatile [...]

Average New Home Size Continues To Shrink

The National Association of Home Builders reported that the median and average size of a new home in the U.S. continued to decline in the third quarter. Third quarter numbers on housing starts show that the median single-family new home size was 2,378 square feet.  The average square footage for new single-family homes declined to 2,518 square feet. According to the NAHB, this is apparently just part of the normal housing cycle. "The post-recession increase in single-family home size is consistent with the historical pattern coming out of recessions. Typical new home size falls prior to and during a [...]

More Denton County Homes For Sale As QE Unwind Begins

As the Federal Reserve begins their QE unwind, one interesting metric to watch will be the number of Denton County homes for sale. The number of Denton TX homes for sale was up 34 percent year-over-year in October. In Denton County inventory was roughly 18 percent higher through October. In Collin County the number of homes for sale was up a surprising 38 percent compared to last year. Reading between the lines, it appears the Goldilocks economy that the DFW area has enjoyed for the past 5 years is due for some consolidation. The inventory [...]

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