DFW Real Estate

Markets Wobbling As Fed Normalization Hits $30 Billion Per Month In Q2

The markets were wobbling again this week, but regardless, the Fed normalization will hit $30 billion per month in April. I must confess that I get a good laugh when I hear market apologists and real estate pundits talk up the magnificent economy and housing market we are blessed with in Texas. Yes, things are pretty good here in the Lone Star State, and the DFW housing market still seems to have legs. Unfortunately the real economy is not nearly as robust as many talking heads and sell-side practitioners would have you believe. The March employment [...]

Lennar Homes Posts Solid First Quarter After CalAtlantic Acquisition

Lennar Homes delivered 6765 homes during the first quarter of 2018, the first fiscal quarter capturing a portion of the CalAtlantic acquisition. New orders at Lennar jumped 30% with a dollar value of $3.4 billion. After absorbing CalAtlantic Homes, the combined company now boasts a backlog of 17,566 homes with a combined value of $7.7 billion. Contributing to that huge backlog were 7190 homes from CalAtlantic worth an estimated $3.6 billion. Lennar is now America's largest home builder looking at the total dollar value of homes. We'll have to wait for 2nd quarter results fully [...]

Denton, Collin County See Declining Home Affordability

Denton and Collin County continue to suffer from declining home affordability. A recent Q1 2018 report from Attom Data Solutions shows that several North Texas housing markets saw worsening affordability rankings compared to last year. Grayson and Ellis Counties were near the top of the list of the most unaffordable counties in the U.S. to buy a home based local home prices and weekly average wages. Grayson and Ellis rank high on the list due to the relatively low average wages and the recent bout of home price inflation that has far exceeded wage gains. [...]

U.S. New Home Sales Flat In February

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for February at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 618,000. This was slightly below expectations, but January was revised significantly higher so month over month the change was negligible. Compared to last year new home sales in February were up less than one percent. The median price for a new home contracted (signing of contract, not actually closing) was $326,800 while the average price of a new home last month posted at $376,700. The supply of new homes stood at 5.9 months in February, near the top of [...]

Fed Orders China Bank To Tighten Anti-Money Laundering Protections

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday faulted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd for its weak anti-money laundering protections, ordering ICBC to tighten its screening of illicit money. Real estate money laundering from China into global property markets has been an ongoing theme for several years, and by all accounts the volumes of money being cleaned are still substantial. Last month the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) introduced new guidelines to replace its "Foreign Income Program". CIBC decided it should obtain income verification for foreign buyers gobbling up overpriced Canadian homes. Many of [...]

Denton County TX Home Sales Flat In February As Prices Rise

Denton County home sales followed the trend in the DFW area during February, roughly unchanged from the same sales volume a year ago. The average price of a Denton  County home rose almost 5 percent year-over-year to just over $341,000. The median price of a Denton County home rose 7.5% to $304,990. The average price of a new Denton County home rose 9.6 % in February to $432,625. Resale price gains were more muted in February, rising only 4.0 percent compared to last year. Pending home sales in both Denton County and the greater DFW [...]

Dallas TX Employment Engine Sheds 59,000 Jobs In January Turnover

The Dallas TX employment engine was misfiring as we headed into 2018. Recently revised figures from the Texas Workforce Commission show the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA shedding 59,000 jobs in January. While it is typical for the January numbers to decline after the holiday turnover, the 59,000 jobs lost in January represents the highest seasonal turnover loss in several years. Employment levels were already declining with the December numbers, so this is a development that could be worth watching. We'll know more in a few weeks when we get the February employment data. What is particularly [...]

New Home Sales Softer In January At 593,000 (SAAR)

New home sales came in softer than expected for January, posting at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000. The Census Bureau numbers were 7.8 percent lower than Decembers revised numbers and 1 percent below January 2017. The median price of a new home contracted in January was $323,000, while the average price of a new home stood at $382,700. There was 6.1 months of supply for new homes in January, a gain of almost a full month compared to this time a year ago. As interest rates have spike during the past two months, [...]

Existing Home Sales Slump 4.8% In January, Denton County Sees 2.5% Rise

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales slumped 4.8 percent in January. Despite a month-over-month increase in available inventory, existing home sales still came in softer than expected. The median price of an existing home was $240,500 in January, an increase of 5.8 percent from a year ago. Existing home prices have increased for 71 consecutive months according to NAR while existing home inventory has declined year-0ver-year for 32 consecutive months. In a sign that higher mortgage rates are starting to put a damper on sales, first-time buyers accounted for only 29 [...]

Why Is The Fed Protecting The Stock Market?

The $11 billion increase in the System Open Market Account Holdings report for February 14 has caught the attention of a number of intelligent market watchers for obvious reasons. The Federal Reserve is purportedly in the midst of a significant balance sheet normalization process whereby they are (and plan to to continue) selling large amounts of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities. After amassing a portfolio of over $4.4 trillion, the Fed has used that massive hedge fund to artificially suppress interest rates and foster some serious asset inflation. The Fed was not alone in this [...]

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