Economy

Economic Issues Affecting Texas Housing Markets

North Texas Housing Market Looks Like A Bubble

The North Texas housing market is looking like a bubble waiting to burst. Home prices continued to melt up in April. Median and average home prices hit new all-time highs across the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The median home price in Denton County hit a new record high of $480,000, an increase of 22.9 percent from last year. Average prices hit $577,607. That was up 25.1 percent year-over-year. The melt-up in prices is pretty astounding considering mortgage interest rates are now solidly above 5 percent. Monthly payments for a prospective home buyer in North Texas have [...]

Fed Hikes Rates 50 Basis Points, Punts Balance Sheet Reduction to June 1st

The Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds rate to a range of 0.75-1.00 percent. The 50 basis-point rate hike was largely expected. Powell shot down any talk of a 75 basis-point hike. Jerome Powell also announced that balance sheet reduction would begin June 1st. The FOMC statement. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support [...]

New Home Sales Begin Slide As Interest Rates Rise

New home sales are beginning to slide as rising rates clamp down on the housing market euphoria. The Census Bureau reported February new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 772,000 units. That's a 2 percent slide from January and down 6.2 percent from last year. The unadjusted February sales estimate shows 65,000 new homes sold. That translates to a 7 percent slide year-over-year. The median price of a new home came in at $400,600. The average price posted at $511,000, a new record high for the series. It's interesting to note [...]

Collateral Damage Coming to the North Texas Housing Market

Collateral damage in the North Texas housing market is beginning to reveal itself. Inflation is at a fresh 40-year high. Homes have never been more expensive, and interest rates are on the rise. Official consumer price inflation just printed at an annual pace of 7.9 percent. This is with many of the official CPI metrics understating actual inflation. This is also before the spike in global energy markets with the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine. While many housing industry pundits were clinging to the slight drop in mortgage rates last week, that blip is now a [...]

New Home Sales Fall as Rising Rates Temper Demand

New home sales fell in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 801,000 units. The previous three months were revised higher. Census Bureau estimates put new home sales 4.5 percent below the revised December numbers. New home sales were 19.3 percent lower than January of last year. The median price of a new home contracted in January was $423,300. The average sales price of a new home posted at $496,900. That was a new all-time high. Median and average new home prices both hit new record highs in North Texas in January. On [...]

North Texas Housing Market Correction Taking Shape

A housing market correction is coming to North Texas. Don't say you weren't warned. The data points have been piling up for months. The only question remaining is how this all plays out, or more specifically how much pain the Fed is willing to tolerate. Inflation Rages Today's headline print for CPI inflation came in at a red-hot 7.5%. Despite many experts' assumptions that inflation would be moderating, core inflation has actually been increasing in each of the last three month's readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jerome Powell and the FOMC decided to [...]

North Texas Real Estate Shatters Records, Before The Fed Pulls the Rug

North Texas real estate shattered a number of records as we closed out the year. December saw record home prices in December as the Federal Reserve continued to pump asset prices. Available home inventory in the Dallas-Fort Worth area dipped to new record lows. Investors, speculators and other home buyers were busy fighting over the dwindling pool of properties available for for sale. The number of homes for sale in North Texas slipped to roughly 11,400 in December. There would be about 30,000 homes for sale in the DFW area under normal conditions. At the [...]

Denton County Home Sales Slide Again As Inventory Double Dips

Denton County home sales are drying up as fast as the inventory. Closings in Denton County fell 7 percent last month. Pending sales were just slightly lower compared to the same time a year ago. The problem continues to be sky high prices and super low inventory. The median price of a home in Denton County hit a record high $415,000 last month. Average home prices fell slightly to $477,978, but they are still 21.5 percent higher than the same time a year ago. The number of homes for sale fell for a 4th consecutive [...]

Seasonality Returning to the Denton County Housing Market

Seasonality is returning to the Denton County housing market. Home sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in October. Closed sales were down 15 percent. Pending sales fell 9 percent from the same time a year ago. Home prices in Denton County are still overheated. Median prices were up 17.3 percent. The average price of a Denton County home was 22.6 percent higher compared to last year. While prices remained off their record highs seen in August, prices on a per square foot basis set new records. The median of $186 per square foot was [...]

Zillow Puts the Brakes on Cash Offers for Remainder of Year

Zillow has hit the pause button on buying homes in the U.S. Zillow reportedly has halted cash purchases of homes through the remainder of the year. Citing labor and supply shortages, the company says it just can't keep up with demand as it works through a backlog of homes it has to close on, renovate and sell. Zillow's chief operating officer phrased it like this. “We’re operating within a labor-and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces.” Interestingly, other iBuyers like Opendoor, Offerpad and Redfin have [...]

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