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Fed Unwinds $21 Billion, Markets Puke On Higher Yields

The Federal Reserve System Open Market Account Holdings (SOMA) report for January 31st finally revealed the balance sheet unwind in action. Since the Fed announced their balance sheet unwind last year, the actual process had been proceeding at a snails pace, particularly with the mortgage-backed securities portfolio. The MBS instruments can take 2-3 months to roll off, so the MBS unwind has been virtually invisible until this week. With a $21 billion drawdown in the latest week, including over $10 billion in agency MBS unwind, it becomes increasingly clear why the markets were puking all [...]

By |2018-05-12T00:52:47+00:00February 2nd, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Housing Market, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Regulation, Texas Employment|0 Comments
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Balance Sheet Unwind Hits Reverse As Interest Paid To Banks Soars

True to form, the Federal Reserve is taking a rather cautious approach to their balance sheet unwind with this week's System Open Market Account (SOMA) report showing an INCREASE of a $million in the Fed's bloated account holdings. So much for unwinding!  If you were wondering how equity markets could be marching to new highs every week in the face of tepid organic economic growth, you have your answer. Today's inflation numbers show that the Federal Reserve still can't seem to generate any inflation in the economy, with core inflation rising only 1.8% year-over-year. Home [...]

By |2018-05-12T00:53:12+00:00January 12th, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Politics, Real Estate, Texas Home Prices|0 Comments
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Another Fed “Senior Economist” Demonstrates Willful Ignorance

The Federal Reserve and its army of economists continue to demonstrate willful ignorance of their failed policies. This week it was the Kansas City Fed's Jordan Rappaport who penned another dose of misdirection on the housing market. Rappaport's piece, "Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases: The Outlook for Housing in 2018" is yet another example of how the Federal Reserve touts itself as a champion of real economy while they continue toe the line for Wall Street and wealthy investors. In the usual captured culture of Fed Mr. Rappaport lays out the theme of continued [...]

By |2018-01-11T20:18:49+00:00January 11th, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, New Home Sales, Politics, Real Estate, Regulation, Spin Cycle, Texas Home Prices, Texas Real Estate, Video|0 Comments
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December Jobs Growth Misses, Wage Growth Still Weak

Yesterday I was musing about the expected rise in inflation and bond yields that so many professional pundits and talking heads are expecting in 2018. That's the story being bantered about on various mainstream cable news puppet shows. Today we received another reality check on that "pent up demand" and overheating labor market story as the December Jobs Report painted a rather lackluster finish to 2017. The BLS Employment Situation showed an increase of 148,000 jobs in December. That's the good news from the establishment survey. The Household survey (Table A) showed an increase of [...]

By |2018-05-12T00:53:42+00:00January 5th, 2018|Dallas Tx Employment, Economy, Education, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, Politics, Spin Cycle, Video|0 Comments
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Misguided Expectations For Inflation And Bond Yields In 2018

The Federal Reserve has proven they are devoid of credibility when it comes to their advertised mandates of full employment and price stability. What the Fed is good at is the same thing it has always been good at...blowing bubbles and serving the interests of Wall Street banks. Thus it should come as no surprise that many of the clueless PhD economists working for the Federal Reserve are calling for an uptick in inflation in 2018. You know, because the labor market is so "tight" and current inflation is still tepid. The Fed of course [...]

By |2018-01-06T16:45:32+00:00January 4th, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, Politics, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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Tax “Reform” Makes Denton County Property Taxes Even Less Appealing

The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act was signed into law this week, and a significant portion of your Denton County property taxes may no longer be deductible under the new law in 2018. Aside from being one of the worst researched and most ill-conceived pieces of legislation in modern history, the new tax bill is very favorable to corporate America. Unfortunately the new tax "reform" is not exactly friendly to home ownership. It remains to be seen how the new tax law will affect DFW area home prices, but the new rules certainly don't favor [...]

By |2017-12-23T00:57:57+00:00December 23rd, 2017|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Property Taxes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgages, Politics, Texas Real Estate|2 Comments
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Mortgage Interest Deduction In Play, 2018 Housing Market Still Cloudy

The controversial mortgage interest deduction is still in play if you follow the back and forth in DC, and the picture for housing is still rather cloudy. There is a lot which could change depending on what Congress tries to ram through reconciliation in terms of the House and Senate tax sausage. Regardless of what Congress and the GOP approve, you can rest assured it won't stimulate job growth and it won't contribute to long-term economic growth. What we are seeing play out in the halls of DC and Wall Street right now is a [...]

By |2022-08-06T13:28:38+00:00December 7th, 2017|Economy, Education, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Flattening Yield Curve & Spiraling Debt – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

All is well in the land of rainbows and unicorns. At least that's the message being floated from DC and their Wall Street handlers. Apparently the economic "recovery" has been so robust that Janet and company at the FOMC have even starting to unwind that massive hedge fund, even if they are doing so at a snails pace. As Professor Anthony Sanders noted, at the current pace of normalization the Fed will manage to unwind the mess they have created in a mere 7 years. Despite all of the rhetoric about tax cuts and economic [...]

By |2022-01-05T03:40:44+00:00December 2nd, 2017|Economy, Housing Market, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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QE Or Bust – US Yield Curve Continues To Flatten

Behold the flattening U.S. yield curve! Reading through the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, you might get the impression that things are still humming along just fine. After all total household debt just hit a new high in the latest survey posting at $12.96 trillion. Mortgage debt is still below the previous bubble peak, so home buyers would appear to be doing doing just fine. If you peak below the headline metrics, however, you begin to see some cracks in the "everything is awesome" narrative. One of the first things that stands [...]

By |2017-11-15T16:13:25+00:00November 15th, 2017|Collin County Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton Tx Home Prices, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle, Texas Home Prices|0 Comments
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Financialization Of Housing And The Disturbing Gap In New Home Sales

The financialization of the U.S. housing market has led to a rather disturbing gap in new home sales relative to existing home sales. This is a subject I was referencing this week when I mentioned the problem builders are facing with the lack of affordable land to build new homes on. Today the Census Bureau reported new home sales for January came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 555,000. Previous months were also revised lower, with November taking a significant haircut. On a year-over-year basis January new home sales were up 5.5 percent. [...]

By |2022-08-06T13:30:06+00:00February 24th, 2017|Economy, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, New Home Sales, Politics, Real Estate, Regulation, Spin Cycle, Video|0 Comments
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