Texas Real Estate

Fed Adds $705 Million Agency MBS With Un-Unwind

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet unwind was MIA again this week as agency MBS increased with latest System Open Market Account Account Holdings report. SOMA January 24 holdings reflected a magical $705 million INCREASE in agency mortgage-backed securities. This is rather strange behavior indeed for what was advertised as a balance sheet "unwind". It's looking more like the un-unwind, at least for the past two weeks. Much like the crony capitalist elite dining in Davos, the fine purveyors of bogus economic theory inhabiting the halls of the Marriner Eccles building are probably a tad bit [...]

Dallas TX Employment Growth Sputters In December But Finishes Year Higher

Dallas TX employment growth sputtered in December with the non-adjusted numbers from the Texas Workforce Commission showing a gain of 2000 jobs for DFW in December. That's a far cry from the strong numbers seen in November, but the yearly gains were still respectable. Over the 12 month period the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA added 91,700 jobs. Dallas Fort Worth is still running hotter than the Houston region, with CPI numbers that are almost twice as strong (3.2% vs 1.7%). The official (massaged) unemployment rate in Dallas stood at 3.6% in December. Houston posted an unemployment [...]

Another Fed “Senior Economist” Demonstrates Willful Ignorance

The Federal Reserve and its army of economists continue to demonstrate willful ignorance of their failed policies. This week it was the Kansas City Fed's Jordan Rappaport who penned another dose of misdirection on the housing market. Rappaport's piece, "Pent-Up Demand and Continuing Price Increases: The Outlook for Housing in 2018" is yet another example of how the Federal Reserve touts itself as a champion of real economy while they continue toe the line for Wall Street and wealthy investors. In the usual captured culture of Fed Mr. Rappaport lays out the theme of continued [...]

Denton County Real Estate 2018: All Eyes On The Fed

As we embrace the new year, and the freezing temperatures that arrived with it, Denton County real estate prices continued to climb higher as sales continue to grow at a measured pace. The housing boom seen during the last 4-5 years has been impressive by any standards. As the Fed continues its much anticipated balance sheet "normalization", there is a lot at stake for local real estate markets.  The U.S. housing market is now heavily dependent on Fed stimulus, in the form of artificially depressed mortgage interest rates, and the artificial "wealth effect" created by [...]

Tax “Reform” Makes Denton County Property Taxes Even Less Appealing

The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act was signed into law this week, and a significant portion of your Denton County property taxes may no longer be deductible under the new law in 2018. Aside from being one of the worst researched and most ill-conceived pieces of legislation in modern history, the new tax bill is very favorable to corporate America. Unfortunately the new tax "reform" is not exactly friendly to home ownership. It remains to be seen how the new tax law will affect DFW area home prices, but the new rules certainly don't favor [...]

Denton County Home Prices Closing Year On High Note

Denton County home prices and sales volume have remained strong into the holiday season. After experiencing a soft patch in September home sales in Denton County resumed their march higher. It would appear that home prices in the Denton area are poised to hit new highs at the end of the year if momentum continues. Median home prices in Denton were about 3 percent higher through November, while median prices in Denton County jumped 11 percent compared to a year ago. Average prices in Denton County also reflect a 10 percent increase through November. Denton [...]

Mortgage Interest Deduction In Play, 2018 Housing Market Still Cloudy

The controversial mortgage interest deduction is still in play if you follow the back and forth in DC, and the picture for housing is still rather cloudy. There is a lot which could change depending on what Congress tries to ram through reconciliation in terms of the House and Senate tax sausage. Regardless of what Congress and the GOP approve, you can rest assured it won't stimulate job growth and it won't contribute to long-term economic growth. What we are seeing play out in the halls of DC and Wall Street right now is a [...]

Flattening Yield Curve & Spiraling Debt – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

All is well in the land of rainbows and unicorns. At least that's the message being floated from DC and their Wall Street handlers. Apparently the economic "recovery" has been so robust that Janet and company at the FOMC have even starting to unwind that massive hedge fund, even if they are doing so at a snails pace. As Professor Anthony Sanders noted, at the current pace of normalization the Fed will manage to unwind the mess they have created in a mere 7 years. Despite all of the rhetoric about tax cuts and economic [...]

New Home Sales Jump In October, Average Prices Hit New High

New home sales continued to enjoy a hurricane-related boost in October. The Census Bureau reported new single-family home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, up 6.2 percent from revised September numbers and 18.7 percent higher than a year ago. The median price of a new home in October was $312,800 while the average price of a new home was $400,200. The talking heads will no doubt see this as a boon for the housing industry, and the numbers are certainly encouraging. That being said, I wouldn't read too much into the volatile [...]

Average New Home Size Continues To Shrink

The National Association of Home Builders reported that the median and average size of a new home in the U.S. continued to decline in the third quarter. Third quarter numbers on housing starts show that the median single-family new home size was 2,378 square feet.  The average square footage for new single-family homes declined to 2,518 square feet. According to the NAHB, this is apparently just part of the normal housing cycle. "The post-recession increase in single-family home size is consistent with the historical pattern coming out of recessions. Typical new home size falls prior to and during a [...]

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