Home Sales

Demand Destruction Hitting Denton County Housing Market

Demand destruction continues to hit the Denton County housing market. The Federal Reserve's housing reset and tighter policy led to a 28 percent slide in home sales in November. Pending contracts for homes were down 24 percent from the same time a year ago. In reality sales numbers are softer than official estimates. We still have another 6 months or so before we'll see more accurate comparisons on sales totals with new construction sales consistently in the MLS. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications are still running about 40 percent lower than [...]

Denton County Housing Market Correction Continues

The Denton County housing market correction continues to evolve. October home closings fell 22 percent year-over year. Pending sales were down by a similar amount. The housing market reset continues to take shape across North Texas as inflated home prices crumble under the weight of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Six and seven percent mortgage rates have proven to be too much for a housing market that ran up too far too fast during the pandemic. Median home prices in Denton County continue to cool. Median home prices are down about $45,000 from the spring [...]

North Texas Housing Market in Full-Blown Correction Mode

The North Texas housing market is now in full-blown correction mode. The Federal Reserve's housing market "reset" message is finally sinking in. Home sales volumes continue to slide. Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continue to drop from their blow-off peaks earlier this year. Mortgage interest rates have spiked to seven percent, while the Fed puts the balance sheet roll-off into high gear. The correction in real estate prices has caused many of the larger asset owners, particularly those in the private equity space and the consultants who serve them, to lose their minds. [...]

Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

North Texas Housing Market – Summer of Denial

The North Texas housing market continued correcting in July. Closed sales were 15 percent lower for the DFW compared to July of last year. Pending contracts also slid lower by a corresponding amount. The median price of a home in the Dallas-Fort Worth market slipped to $389,000, up 16.1 percent year-over-year. Average prices in DFW dropped even more, sliding over $25,000 from the high in June. That may be the high for North Texas home prices for a few years depending on how this cycle plays out. The housing market correction has definitely been noticeable [...]

7 Tips for North Texas Home Sellers as the Housing Bubble Pops

Here are 7 tips for North Texas home sellers as the DFW housing bubble pops. The bond markets made another seismic shift last week with big implications for the housing market and home sellers. Mortgage interest rates are now close to six percent, and inventory is climbing quickly. Home sellers need to be aware of the huge shift in the housing market as the Fed normalizes policy. Tip # 1 – Acknowledge the bubble for what it is There are countless “experts” in the mortgage and real estate space who completely missed the tectonic shift [...]

Denton County Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

Denton County's pandemic-induced housing bubble is finally beginning to pop. The summer selling season has been met with rampant price chopping. Sellers are hitting the market and finding some big air pockets. My what a difference a few months can make! Home inventory continues to rise off the lows earlier this year. That has caught a number of home sellers and agents completely off guard. It shouldn't have. As I have been detailing for months, this shift and the coming correction were baked in the cake. What's amazing is that so many "experts" continue to [...]

North Texas Housing Market Looks Like A Bubble

The North Texas housing market is looking like a bubble waiting to burst. Home prices continued to melt up in April. Median and average home prices hit new all-time highs across the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The median home price in Denton County hit a new record high of $480,000, an increase of 22.9 percent from last year. Average prices hit $577,607. That was up 25.1 percent year-over-year. The melt-up in prices is pretty astounding considering mortgage interest rates are now solidly above 5 percent. Monthly payments for a prospective home buyer in North Texas have [...]

North Texas Housing Market Correction Taking Shape

A housing market correction is coming to North Texas. Don't say you weren't warned. The data points have been piling up for months. The only question remaining is how this all plays out, or more specifically how much pain the Fed is willing to tolerate. Inflation Rages Today's headline print for CPI inflation came in at a red-hot 7.5%. Despite many experts' assumptions that inflation would be moderating, core inflation has actually been increasing in each of the last three month's readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jerome Powell and the FOMC decided to [...]

Denton County Home Sales Slide Again As Inventory Double Dips

Denton County home sales are drying up as fast as the inventory. Closings in Denton County fell 7 percent last month. Pending sales were just slightly lower compared to the same time a year ago. The problem continues to be sky high prices and super low inventory. The median price of a home in Denton County hit a record high $415,000 last month. Average home prices fell slightly to $477,978, but they are still 21.5 percent higher than the same time a year ago. The number of homes for sale fell for a 4th consecutive [...]

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