New Construction

New Home Sales Bounce in May with Big Drop in Prices

The Census Bureau reported new home sales in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 763,000 units. That was 12.2 percent better than the revised April estimate and 20 percent better than May of last year. So what drove the jump in new home sales? Lower prices! "The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2023 was $416,300. The average sales price was $487,300." That average new home price of $487,300 is the lowest in 2023 and over $28,000 lower than the March estimate. The May average price is $81,400 lower [...]

New Home Sales Receive a Small Boost From Lower Prices and Rates

New home sales received a slight boost in December. The Census Bureau reported new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units. This was in line with expectations, but previous months were revised lower. The median price of a new home in the U.S. was $16,900 lower in December. Sales were also helped by mortgage rates dropping roughly half a percentage point. The supply of new homes dipped in December, but finished inventory continues to grow. There are now 1.4 months of completed new construction inventory in the U.S. There is plenty [...]

New Home Inventory Continues Rebound in North Texas

New home inventory continues to rebound in North Texas. The supply of available new construction inventory experienced a sharp decline coming out of the pandemic. It rebounded sharply this year with the demand crush from the Federal Reserve and a doubling of mortgage rates. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 units. Sales for the previous months were revised down sharply. New home inventory posted at 8.6 months of supply according to Census. The Census sales numbers will continue to be noisy and overstated as [...]

Census Overestimates October New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 units. Take the headline sales number with a huge grain of salt. The Census numbers are notorious for monthly revisions. It's reasonable to expect the October sales estimate will receive a haircut.  Census estimates are obviously not capturing the spiking cancellation rates of home builders. The October estimate also does not fit with numbers builders have been reporting on actual sales in the latest quarter. The attached chart comparing Census estimates for sales vs the October spike in [...]

August New Home Sales Surprise to the Upside

August new home sales came in better than expected. The Census Bureau reported new home sales of August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685,000 units. Previous months were revised slightly higher. "New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 28.8 percent (±18.3 percent) above the revised July rate of 532,000, but is 0.1 percent (±16.5 percent)* below the August [...]

New Home Sales Take a Dive in July – 7.3 Months Supply of New Homes Under Construction

New home sales dropped sharply in July. High prices and dramatically higher mortgage rates have taken their toll on the new construction housing market. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2022 came in at $439,400. The average sales price was $546,800. That rebound in prices was exactly what the new home market didn't need. New home affordability has been crushed with higher mortgage rates. "Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census [...]

New Home Sales Market Finally Cooling Off

The market for new home sales is finally cooling off. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for March at 735,000 units (SAAR). This was 8.6% below the revised February estimate. It was also a 12.6% drop from March of last year. The median sales price of a new home contracted in March 2022 was $436,700. The average sales price was $523,900. Those were both new record highs. The unadjusted inventory of new homes stood at 5.7 months, up from 5.3 in February. Sky high prices and rising interest rates are now acting to cool [...]

New Home Sales Begin Slide As Interest Rates Rise

New home sales are beginning to slide as rising rates clamp down on the housing market euphoria. The Census Bureau reported February new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 772,000 units. That's a 2 percent slide from January and down 6.2 percent from last year. The unadjusted February sales estimate shows 65,000 new homes sold. That translates to a 7 percent slide year-over-year. The median price of a new home came in at $400,600. The average price posted at $511,000, a new record high for the series. It's interesting to note [...]

New Home Sales Fall as Rising Rates Temper Demand

New home sales fell in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 801,000 units. The previous three months were revised higher. Census Bureau estimates put new home sales 4.5 percent below the revised December numbers. New home sales were 19.3 percent lower than January of last year. The median price of a new home contracted in January was $423,300. The average sales price of a new home posted at $496,900. That was a new all-time high. Median and average new home prices both hit new record highs in North Texas in January. On [...]

New Home Sales Rise Slightly In August to 740,000 SAAR

New home sales for August posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 740,000 units. That was slightly better than expectations. New home sales were 1.5 percent higher for the month, but still down 24.3 percent from August of last year. The median price of a new home in August was $390,900. The average price checked in at $443,200. Census figures showed 6.1 months of new home inventory. Unadjusted figures show 6.2 months of supply. Anyone shopping for a new home understands those headline figures are complete bullocks. Looking into the composition of new [...]

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