Home Builders

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Why Home Builders Can’t Meet Housing Demand

America's home builders are having a difficult time meeting housing demand, or so they say. While access to credit is cited as a factor that is holding back builders, that's only a partial cause of builders' reluctance to put their money where their optimism index mouth is. As NAHB chief economist, Robert Dietz, explains it builders are finding it more difficult and expensive to develop land. Home builders should be thanking the The Federal Reserve for this warped, manipulated landscape, but most builders will likely avoid the discussion. The first rule of fight club is [...]

By | 2017-01-12T21:38:57+00:00 January 11th, 2017|Development, New Home Sales, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|1 Comment

Taylor Morrison Sees Sluggish Home Sales In Q4 2015

Taylor Morrison Home Corp reported fourth quarter earnings today, and the numbers were tepid at best. The Arizona-based home builder reported home closing revenue that was 3 percent lower YoY. Profit and revenue were essentially supported by higher average sales prices and a much larger community count after Taylor Morrison's absorption of Darling. Taylor Morrison's average closed home price for the quarter was $452,000. Taylor Morrison's average community count was up 30 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. That makes the net sales orders increase of only 11 percent look pretty weak indeed. [...]

By | 2016-02-03T22:31:23+00:00 February 3rd, 2016|Development, Economy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

Housing Starts & Permits Rise, But Actual Buyer Traffic Stagnates

The Census Bureau released starts and permits data for September. As one might expect the numbers showed some marginal gains compared to last year. Starts for single- family homes were up 12 percent YoY seasonally adjusted while the unadjusted data showed an 11 percent increase year-over-year. The more forward-looking permits data was more tepid, with September permits for single-family homes seeing a 6.7 percent increase on a seasonally adjusted basis and 6.6 percent looking at the unadjusted numbers. The interesting thing about the latest Census data is that the number of housing units under construction [...]

Toll Brothers FY 2015 Results Indicate Declining Sales Per Community

Toll Brothers reported FY 2015 second quarter earnings this morning, and it looks like the California-based luxury home builder is marching into the teeth of a slowdown. For FY 2015 Toll reported they were selling homes in 269 communities, 6.7 percent more than the 252 communities they had in the second quarter of last year. For that increased community count Toll was only able to muster a 2 percent DECLINE in deliveries for the second quarter of 2015. The average price of a home delivered in the second quarter was $713,000, compared to $706,000 last [...]

Ryland Homes Gets Clipped By Declining Margins – Texas Earnings, Closings, New Orders All Negative

Ryland Homes was yet the latest home builder to get a reality check in the past few weeks as the California home builder reported first quarter results. Shares of Ryland Homes fell 5.93 percent on the day, after the company reported that Q1 margins decreased from 21.1 percent last year to 19.7 percent in Q1 this year. The Ryland press release also shows that the builder reported a lower sales absorption rate per community in the first quarter this year, falling from 2.5 homes per community to 2.3 homes per community in the first quarter of 2015. [...]

By | 2016-02-02T11:50:18+00:00 April 30th, 2015|New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

August New Home Sales Likely Weaker Than Census Numbers – Mortgage Purchase Apps Down 16% YoY

Yesterday the Census Bureau told us that new home sales posted some of the best numbers in years. The problem is, that report is not supported by actual builder sales reports or real mortgage purchase applications. The new home sales report for August showed that sales were 33 percent higher than the same time last year, even as the average selling price was at a record high. If you believe that Census report, I have some nice waterfront property I would like to sell you in West Texas. The views of the pump jacks are included [...]

For Whom The Bell Tolls – Toll Brothers Net Home Orders Fall 5% YOY

Toll Brothers, the self proclaimed leader of luxury home builders, reported a 5% year-over-year drop in net home orders for the fiscal third quarter. It appears Toll Brothers has finally discovered the laws of supply and demand. While home deliveries for Toll were up compared to last year, it should be noted that Toll has a longer build-time than most builders, roughly 8-9 months here in our area. That compares with other production builders who can deliver a new home in 4 or 5 months. Toll's longer than average build time makes their recent sales [...]

By | 2016-09-29T13:37:28+00:00 September 7th, 2014|Development, Economy, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate|0 Comments

July Housing Starts & Permits – A Multifamily Masquerade Ball

The Census Bureau reported that July starts and permits were up sharply, driven by another rebound in multifamily. Contrary to some of the headline garbage that you may have read following today's report. The July starts and permits were another sign of stagnation in the U.S. residential housing market. If you remove the "seasonal adjustment" fluff from the data, you see what a disappointing report this actually was. Not seasonally adjusted, single family housing permits came in at an annual rate of 610,000, up marginally from last year's pace of 587,000. Single family housing starts [...]

By | 2014-08-19T18:05:48+00:00 August 19th, 2014|Development, Economy, Housing Market, Real Estate|0 Comments

Beazer Homes, Hovnanian Hit 52-Week Lows – Home Builder Stocks Suffer From Slowing Sales

Updated - Beazer Homes was down over 11 percent today on disappointing results. Beazer (BZH) saw new home orders drop 6.6 percent year-over-year on average sales prices that were 12.1 percent higher than 2013. Mr. market didn't much care for Beazer's  $6.6 million operating profit for the quarter, and as a result Beazer's shares dropped to a 52-week low. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) managed to hit both a 52-week low and a 3-handle this morning. Overly optimistic projections based on the hopeful re-appearance of organic buyers have yet to translate into sustainable growth for the home [...]

Weak Economic, Wage Growth Still A Lingering Problem For Home Builders

With TRI Pointe's recent acquisition of Trendmaker Homes, I thought it would be interesting to take another look at home builder stocks. Turns out the year has gone pretty much as I had expected. High home prices and stagnating sales have kept a lid on the home builders' stocks. Single family home starts were off 4.3% in June, and permits were up less than one percent. Yesterday we also learned that existing sales were down 2.3% year-over-year. The problem, at least outside of Texas, is a quagmire of weak economic and wage growth. That weak growth [...]

By | 2016-09-29T15:07:04+00:00 July 23rd, 2014|Economy, Housing Market, Markets, Real Estate|4 Comments