Denton County

Fannie Freddie Loan Limits For High Cost Counties Over a $Million in 2023

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loan limits will jump to over a $million in January 2023. American taxpayers will be backstopping loans in expensive coastal counties for up to $1,089,300. That's up from the limit of $970,800 this year. Most conforming loans will be subject to the new loan limit of $726,200 in 2023. That's a 12.2 percent increase from the current limit of $647,200. Fannie Mae's Lender Letter (LL-2022-06) explains the nuts and bolts of the new changes. The new tables have the loan limit for single-unit structures in Denton County Texas at [...]

Census Overestimates October New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 units. Take the headline sales number with a huge grain of salt. The Census numbers are notorious for monthly revisions. It's reasonable to expect the October sales estimate will receive a haircut.  Census estimates are obviously not capturing the spiking cancellation rates of home builders. The October estimate also does not fit with numbers builders have been reporting on actual sales in the latest quarter. The attached chart comparing Census estimates for sales vs the October spike in [...]

Denton County Housing Market Correction Continues

The Denton County housing market correction continues to evolve. October home closings fell 22 percent year-over year. Pending sales were down by a similar amount. The housing market reset continues to take shape across North Texas as inflated home prices crumble under the weight of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Six and seven percent mortgage rates have proven to be too much for a housing market that ran up too far too fast during the pandemic. Median home prices in Denton County continue to cool. Median home prices are down about $45,000 from the spring [...]

New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

North Texas Housing Market in Full-Blown Correction Mode

The North Texas housing market is now in full-blown correction mode. The Federal Reserve's housing market "reset" message is finally sinking in. Home sales volumes continue to slide. Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continue to drop from their blow-off peaks earlier this year. Mortgage interest rates have spiked to seven percent, while the Fed puts the balance sheet roll-off into high gear. The correction in real estate prices has caused many of the larger asset owners, particularly those in the private equity space and the consultants who serve them, to lose their minds. [...]

Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

North Texas Housing Market – Summer of Denial

The North Texas housing market continued correcting in July. Closed sales were 15 percent lower for the DFW compared to July of last year. Pending contracts also slid lower by a corresponding amount. The median price of a home in the Dallas-Fort Worth market slipped to $389,000, up 16.1 percent year-over-year. Average prices in DFW dropped even more, sliding over $25,000 from the high in June. That may be the high for North Texas home prices for a few years depending on how this cycle plays out. The housing market correction has definitely been noticeable [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Piling Up as Housing Market Stalls

Home inventory in Denton County continues to pile up as the North Texas housing market stalls. The post-pandemic housing bubble is now popping under the pressure of dramatically higher mortgage rates and a lack of affordability. NTREIS figures show Denton County home sales fell 10 percent from June of last year. Pending sales declined roughly 8 percent year-over-year. The inventory of homes available for sale is up 80 percent from a year ago. With the decline in sales, months of inventory has spiked 90 percent from a year ago. Months of inventory for new construction [...]

New Home Sales Improve Slightly With Lower Prices

New home sales improved in May...with some significantly lower prices. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 696,000 units. That was better than revised April numbers, but 5.9 percent lower than a year ago. The median sales price of a new house sold in May 2022 was $449,000. The average sales price was $511,400. That's a $58,100 drop from the average price in April. The seasonally adjusted months of inventory stood at 7.7 months of supply. It is worth noting that the supply of homes [...]

7 Tips for Denton County Home Buyers as the Housing Bubble Pops

Here are 7 tips for Denton County home buyers as the post-pandemic housing bubble pops. We've seen some epic moves in the bond markets the last few days. The yield on the 10-year treasury bond spiked to 3.5% on Tuesday, pushing mortgage rates to yearly highs. The rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.28% according to Mortgage News Daily. Inflation is raging, and consumers are losing patience. If they aren’t already priced out of the market, many buyers are hitting the pause button. Home affordability has been absolutely crushed the last few months as the [...]

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