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October Swoon Suggests Denton County Real Estate Market Correction Just Getting Started

Denton County's real estate market is going to post some very soft numbers again for October. Both closed and pending home sales are going to be down year-over-year while pending home sales are likely going to post a double-digit decline not just in Denton County, but for the entire Dallas-Fort Worth housing market. OUCH! Available home inventory is shooting higher across the DFW area. While notable economists at the Federal Reserve, local real estate "professionals" and even the "experts" at the RECenter at Texas A&M have been dismissing recent developments as just a cooling off [...]

By |2022-01-05T03:37:34+00:00November 4th, 2018|Dallas Tx Employment, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Humor, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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RECenter A&M Economists Still Wasting Texas Realtors’ Money

RECenter at A&M economists and data junkies are still wasting the dues of Texas Realtors that pay a good chunk of their salaries. It seems the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M economists are phase-locked in a myopic pursuit to somehow rationalize or justify the status quo situation with Texas housing. "Intellectual Phase-Locking is a condition that results when dogmatic 'scientific' assumptions inhibit further inquiry." Rupert Sheldrake Last year I wrote about some of the interesting details on the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M and their funding. I have also clued readers in on the [...]

By |2018-09-21T09:29:31+00:00July 22nd, 2018|Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle, Texas Home Prices, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Dallas Morning News Real Estate Desk Still Missing The Boat

Dallas Morning News' real estate editor, Steve Brown, seems to be waking up to the fact that the DFW real estate market is cooling. He's still off the mark when it comes to the recent peak in DFW home sales, but at least he acknowledged the sales decline last month.  DFW home sales fell for the month of June. See, that wasn't so hard. After successive years of abnormal price growth, the DFW area saw a reported 3 percent decline in home sales in June. I say "reported", because as I detailed in a previous [...]

By |2021-07-05T13:41:40+00:00July 14th, 2018|Dallas Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, Economy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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The Fed Has Successfully Destroyed The U.S. Housing Market

A few days ago a friend of mine sent me a link to some "insight" on the coming economic developments that we should be preparing for in terms of debts and deficits. The company providing this research piece has over a $trillion in assets under management. Since I have a healthy skepticism of anything the financial "services" industry is selling I decided to give it a read. It was very informative, partly due to a complete fundamental ignorance of basic economics, but also because of an obvious contradiction with the author's stated assumptions. As I [...]

By |2018-04-29T10:58:50+00:00April 27th, 2018|Denton County Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Politics, Spin Cycle|7 Comments
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Markets Wobbling As Fed Normalization Hits $30 Billion Per Month In Q2

The markets were wobbling again this week, but regardless, the Fed normalization will hit $30 billion per month in April. I must confess that I get a good laugh when I hear market apologists and real estate pundits talk up the magnificent economy and housing market we are blessed with in Texas. Yes, things are pretty good here in the Lone Star State, and the DFW housing market still seems to have legs. Unfortunately the real economy is not nearly as robust as many talking heads and sell-side practitioners would have you believe. The March employment [...]

By |2018-04-06T23:20:16+00:00April 6th, 2018|DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle, Texas Employment, Texas Home Prices, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Fed Orders China Bank To Tighten Anti-Money Laundering Protections

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday faulted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd for its weak anti-money laundering protections, ordering ICBC to tighten its screening of illicit money. Real estate money laundering from China into global property markets has been an ongoing theme for several years, and by all accounts the volumes of money being cleaned are still substantial. Last month the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) introduced new guidelines to replace its "Foreign Income Program". CIBC decided it should obtain income verification for foreign buyers gobbling up overpriced Canadian homes. Many of [...]

By |2021-07-05T13:48:48+00:00March 14th, 2018|DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgages, Real Estate, Regulation, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Why Is The Fed Protecting The Stock Market?

The $11 billion increase in the System Open Market Account Holdings report for February 14 has caught the attention of a number of intelligent market watchers for obvious reasons. The Federal Reserve is purportedly in the midst of a significant balance sheet normalization process whereby they are (and plan to to continue) selling large amounts of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities. After amassing a portfolio of over $4.4 trillion, the Fed has used that massive hedge fund to artificially suppress interest rates and foster some serious asset inflation. The Fed was not alone in this [...]

By |2018-05-12T00:51:24+00:00February 17th, 2018|Denton County Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Regulation, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Denton County New Home Prices Jump 10% In January

Denton County new home prices jumped to a new high in January. According to NTREIS data the price of closed new construction within Denton County Texas was 10.2 percent higher year-over-year with the average price per square foot of a new Denton County home hitting $151. The total price of a new home was up 11 percent to $436,571. These are some impressive price increases particularly for what is normally a slower part of the selling season. December was a banner month for new home sales throughout the DFW area, and January looks to be [...]

By |2018-05-12T00:51:53+00:00February 16th, 2018|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Fed Unwinds $21 Billion, Markets Puke On Higher Yields

The Federal Reserve System Open Market Account Holdings (SOMA) report for January 31st finally revealed the balance sheet unwind in action. Since the Fed announced their balance sheet unwind last year, the actual process had been proceeding at a snails pace, particularly with the mortgage-backed securities portfolio. The MBS instruments can take 2-3 months to roll off, so the MBS unwind has been virtually invisible until this week. With a $21 billion drawdown in the latest week, including over $10 billion in agency MBS unwind, it becomes increasingly clear why the markets were puking all [...]

By |2018-05-12T00:52:47+00:00February 2nd, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Education, Housing Market, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Regulation, Texas Employment|0 Comments
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Federal Reserve Sowed The Seeds Of The Next Housing Downturn

The Federal Reserve is poised to cause yet another housing downturn in the U.S. I'm not talking about a spectacular Lehman style apocalypse mind you, but an honest downturn that will be unavoidable. Today's S&P Case-Shiller home price index showed another rise in Dallas home prices in November. This is essentially lagged data confirming what most prospective DFW home buyers already knew, namely that Dallas area home prices are pretty damn high. The national index showed that U.S. home prices were up 6.2 percent, or roughly three times average U.S. hourly income growth. The BEA [...]

By |2019-04-12T16:19:09+00:00January 30th, 2018|Collin County Home Prices, Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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