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March 2019

New Home Sales Improve On Lower Rates, Big Drop In Prices

According to the Census Bureau new home sales for March posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, a 3 percent increase from the same time last year and 4.5 percent better than February sales numbers. Apparently the big drop in mortgage interest rates continued to provide some lift to the new home market in March. This confirms what we were seeing in the DFW market last month as new home sales outperformed the resale market. The supply of new homes stood at 5.0 months in March, up from 4.5 months a year ago. [...]

NAR: Existing Home Sales Disappoint, Down 5.4% In March

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales dropped 4.9 percent in March. This puts existing U.S. home sales down 5.4 percent compared to last year. Apparently the stimulus provided by crashing mortgage interest rates has already run its course. Home builders certainly aren't taking any chances, as confirmed by the weak starts and permits data we saw last week. Builders are apparently happy to sell off some of their remaining new home inventory rather than ramp up production in a meaningful way. NAR reported that the median price of an existing home in [...]

Denton County Home Sales See March Revival

Denton County home sales experienced a spring revival in March as plunging mortgage interest rates helped to offset continued affordability constraints. Home sales jumped 5 percent in the area while pending sales edged 6 percent higher for the month. The big decline in mortgage rates boosted home sales activity. Average home prices in Denton County also edged higher in March, rising almost 2 percent compared to March of last year to nearly $365,000. New home sales in the Denton area experienced the biggest boost from the recent interest rate swan dive. Sales of existing single-family [...]

Fed Says No Rate Hikes In 2019, Balance Sheet Drawdown Ending In September

The Jerome Powell cave is now a comical farce. Aside from using the word "patient" about 30 times in the March FOMC statement, Jerome Powell told us the Fed does not expect to hike interest rates at all in 2019. To top things off, the Fed balance sheet that was on autopilot at the end of last year will now end this September. In terms of the Fed's projections for the economy, growth was revised down and the unemployment rate was revised up slightly. "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation [...]

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