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North Texas

Price Drops and Lower Mortgage Rates Provided Temporary Lift to New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 units. This is old news, but more confirmation of what we have seen in the local North Texas housing market. The boost to new home sales at the end of 2022 and January of this year was the result of improved affordability. It was a confluence of several events. The key ingredients were as follows: Overly loose financial conditions with many Americans still sitting on excess savings Falling mortgage rates in December and January Significant price reductions from [...]

By |2023-02-25T14:27:39+00:00February 24th, 2023|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales|0 Comments
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Higher Rates Coming Back for the North Texas Housing Market

The North Texas housing market started off the year with renewed animal spirits. It appears the Powell Fed made a colossal mistake by taking their foot off the breaks before inflation has been vanquished. We can already see signs of inflation percolating again in the housing market. The Fed Back to Where it Started The first FOMC meeting of 2023 revealed a huge blunder by the Powell Fed. As the markets ramped higher for the last month asset owners cheered that inflation had been conquered. Housing market participants reveled in the headlines of a coming [...]

By |2024-08-13T11:24:48+00:00February 10th, 2023|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Rent, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Realtor, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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New Home Sales Receive a Small Boost From Lower Prices and Rates

New home sales received a slight boost in December. The Census Bureau reported new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units. This was in line with expectations, but previous months were revised lower. The median price of a new home in the U.S. was $16,900 lower in December. Sales were also helped by mortgage rates dropping roughly half a percentage point. The supply of new homes dipped in December, but finished inventory continues to grow. There are now 1.4 months of completed new construction inventory in the U.S. There is plenty [...]

By |2023-01-26T22:19:43+00:00January 26th, 2023|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales|0 Comments
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North Texas Housing Market Looks to Fed for Signs of Relief

The North Texas housing market continues to hope for a soft landing by the Fed. Agents and market participants continue to front-run a Fed pivot that hasn't happened. There are plenty of people in the real estate industry who want and need lower rates to bolster their business. Many of these same people are agents and levered speculators who feasted on the $trillions in stimulus that drove the markets to their bubble highs. Fortunately cooler heads are currently driving policy. Normalization in the housing market continues to trim some of the froth from the housing [...]

By |2024-08-13T11:25:28+00:00January 9th, 2023|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Realtor, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Demand Destruction Hitting Denton County Housing Market

Demand destruction continues to hit the Denton County housing market. The Federal Reserve's housing reset and tighter policy led to a 28 percent slide in home sales in November. Pending contracts for homes were down 24 percent from the same time a year ago. In reality sales numbers are softer than official estimates. We still have another 6 months or so before we'll see more accurate comparisons on sales totals with new construction sales consistently in the MLS. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications are still running about 40 percent lower than [...]

By |2022-12-13T15:43:41+00:00December 11th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Denton County Housing Market Correction Continues

The Denton County housing market correction continues to evolve. October home closings fell 22 percent year-over year. Pending sales were down by a similar amount. The housing market reset continues to take shape across North Texas as inflated home prices crumble under the weight of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Six and seven percent mortgage rates have proven to be too much for a housing market that ran up too far too fast during the pandemic. Median home prices in Denton County continue to cool. Median home prices are down about $45,000 from the spring [...]

By |2022-11-18T23:11:28+00:00November 11th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy|0 Comments
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New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

By |2022-10-26T22:29:25+00:00October 26th, 2022|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx New Homes, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Markets, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate, Relocation|0 Comments
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North Texas Housing Market in Full-Blown Correction Mode

The North Texas housing market is now in full-blown correction mode. The Federal Reserve's housing market "reset" message is finally sinking in. Home sales volumes continue to slide. Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continue to drop from their blow-off peaks earlier this year. Mortgage interest rates have spiked to seven percent, while the Fed puts the balance sheet roll-off into high gear. The correction in real estate prices has caused many of the larger asset owners, particularly those in the private equity space and the consultants who serve them, to lose their minds. [...]

By |2024-02-13T15:19:58+00:00October 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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August New Home Sales Surprise to the Upside

August new home sales came in better than expected. The Census Bureau reported new home sales of August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685,000 units. Previous months were revised slightly higher. "New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 28.8 percent (±18.3 percent) above the revised July rate of 532,000, but is 0.1 percent (±16.5 percent)* below the August [...]

By |2022-09-27T21:08:01+00:00September 27th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

By |2022-09-15T14:19:47+00:00September 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton Tx New Homes, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Aaron Layman Realtor Denton County Texas Questions? Call me now at
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