Real Estate

Denton County Real Estate Market Appears to Be Stalling Out

Is the real estate market rebound stalling out? Denton County home prices edged higher again in June. The median price of home rose to $479,000, down 1.2% from the same time last year. Average prices in Denton County came in at $568,837. That was down 1.1 percent year-over-year. Average prices are still $20,000 shy of the spring 2022 bubble peak. Judging from the recent uptick in inventory levels and the typical seasonality of prices, it appears North Texas home prices will have to wait another year or more before we see those lofty levels again. [...]

Denton County Home Prices Bounce, But Still Lower Than a Year Ago

The Denton County and North Texas housing market continued to bounce in April. Median home prices were up over $40,000 from January, but still down 1.6 percent from April of last year. The ridiculous bubble from the spring of 2022 continues to make for tough year-over-year comparisons. Thin resale inventory and higher prices are still taking a toll on sales. Closed sales in Denton County were down 8 percent from a year ago, while pending contracts were 5 percent lower. With the tighter conditions this spring average days on market fell to 51 days. Average [...]

Real Estate Market Bounces as Banking Crisis Fades

The real estate market bounced in March as turmoil in the banking sector subsided. Denton County home sales nearly doubled from the January lows, putting sales up 13 percent from a year ago. Pending contract edged up as well, placing contract activity 10 percent higher than March of last year. Some context is in order here since activity is still light compared to historical trend. This is largely due to diminished inventory levels. Denton County was still sitting on 1.8 months of supply in March. That's down from the 2.9 months we saw in October [...]

Higher Rates Coming Back for the North Texas Housing Market

The North Texas housing market started off the year with renewed animal spirits. It appears the Powell Fed made a colossal mistake by taking their foot off the breaks before inflation has been vanquished. We can already see signs of inflation percolating again in the housing market. The Fed Back to Where it Started The first FOMC meeting of 2023 revealed a huge blunder by the Powell Fed. As the markets ramped higher for the last month asset owners cheered that inflation had been conquered. Housing market participants reveled in the headlines of a coming [...]

New Home Inventory Continues Rebound in North Texas

New home inventory continues to rebound in North Texas. The supply of available new construction inventory experienced a sharp decline coming out of the pandemic. It rebounded sharply this year with the demand crush from the Federal Reserve and a doubling of mortgage rates. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 units. Sales for the previous months were revised down sharply. New home inventory posted at 8.6 months of supply according to Census. The Census sales numbers will continue to be noisy and overstated as [...]

Demand Destruction Hitting Denton County Housing Market

Demand destruction continues to hit the Denton County housing market. The Federal Reserve's housing reset and tighter policy led to a 28 percent slide in home sales in November. Pending contracts for homes were down 24 percent from the same time a year ago. In reality sales numbers are softer than official estimates. We still have another 6 months or so before we'll see more accurate comparisons on sales totals with new construction sales consistently in the MLS. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications are still running about 40 percent lower than [...]

Fannie Freddie Loan Limits For High Cost Counties Over a $Million in 2023

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loan limits will jump to over a $million in January 2023. American taxpayers will be backstopping loans in expensive coastal counties for up to $1,089,300. That's up from the limit of $970,800 this year. Most conforming loans will be subject to the new loan limit of $726,200 in 2023. That's a 12.2 percent increase from the current limit of $647,200. Fannie Mae's Lender Letter (LL-2022-06) explains the nuts and bolts of the new changes. The new tables have the loan limit for single-unit structures in Denton County Texas at [...]

Denton County Housing Market Correction Continues

The Denton County housing market correction continues to evolve. October home closings fell 22 percent year-over year. Pending sales were down by a similar amount. The housing market reset continues to take shape across North Texas as inflated home prices crumble under the weight of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Six and seven percent mortgage rates have proven to be too much for a housing market that ran up too far too fast during the pandemic. Median home prices in Denton County continue to cool. Median home prices are down about $45,000 from the spring [...]

New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

North Texas Housing Market in Full-Blown Correction Mode

The North Texas housing market is now in full-blown correction mode. The Federal Reserve's housing market "reset" message is finally sinking in. Home sales volumes continue to slide. Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continue to drop from their blow-off peaks earlier this year. Mortgage interest rates have spiked to seven percent, while the Fed puts the balance sheet roll-off into high gear. The correction in real estate prices has caused many of the larger asset owners, particularly those in the private equity space and the consultants who serve them, to lose their minds. [...]

Go to Top