Relocation

Trump Administration Proposes 50-Year Mortgage

The Trump administration is working on a plan for a 50-year mortgage. The internet was abuzz this weekend when FHFA director William Pulte Jr. confirmed the rumor. The Federal Finance Housing Agency director suggested it would be a game changing moment for the housing market. President Trump floated the idea on his Truth Social account. The administration is floating the idea of a 50-year mortgage to stimulate a sluggish housing market. We should probably not be surprised by the idea of two wealthy real estate guys grasping at straws to stimulate home sales and credit [...]

Denton County Home Prices Are Lower Than Official Stats

Real Denton County home prices are lower than official stats are reflecting. Official numbers from NTREIS show median home prices in Denton County down 6.5 percent from September of last year. Average prices fell 4.5 percent year-over-year. Real home prices in Denton County are lower than that. The discrepancy between what is getting reported in the media and what's actually happening at the closing table requires a dive into the actual closing data. For better or worse, the North Texas MLS does not require an adjusted sales price field that shows the real closing price [...]

Stagflation Continues for North Texas Housing Market

Stagflation continues to be the theme for the North Texas housing market. Sales and contract activity remain sluggish as DFW home prices remain at inflated levels. Home sales across North Texas slid 5.5 percent year-over-year in May. Sales were down 3.5 percent in Denton County. Collin County managed a 1 percent increase. Median prices slid 4.8% and 4.9 percent respectively in Denton and Collin Counties. That reversion to the mean has been a consistent trend so far in 2025. Severely strained housing affordability levels continue to take a toll on contract activity. At the same [...]

Denton County Housing Market Perks Up

Denton County's housing market perked up in November. Post-election enthusiasm and renewed animal spirits helped push home sales up 10 percent. Median home prices jumped 2.2 percent year-over-year in November. Average prices rose even more, but the disconnect in the market continued. Wealthy property owners continue to skew the overall picture of the North Texas housing market. Area land prices are still grossly inflated. The housing market isn't nearly as healthy as many agents would have you believe. The jump in sales activity is certainly welcome, but it would be foolish (spelled intellectually dishonest) to [...]

Denton County Housing Market Searching For a Soft Landing

Denton County's housing market was still searching for that soft landing in November. Home sales were down 2 percent year-over-year. Pending sales fell by nine percent. Median home prices were steady at $450,000. Ironically enough that's exactly where prices stood in November of last year. Average prices slid for the fourth consecutive month, putting them down 1 percent lower than last year. The average price of a Denton County home is $68,000 (eleven percent) lower than the bubble peak of last spring. The North Texas housing market is currently caught between The Federal Reserve's need [...]

New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

North Texas Home Prices Defy Fed’s Transitory Narrative

North Texas home prices continue to defy the Fed's transitory narrative. While Jerome Powell and various FOMC officials waffle back and forth on continued stimulus, DFW homes are becoming more unaffordable. NTREIS figures for April show the median price of a DFW home jumping 17.4 percent to a record $317,000. The average price of a North Texas home hit a new record of $397,582. That was a jump of 26.8 percent from the same time a year ago. Those numbers make a mockery of Powell's ridiculous 2 percent inflation targets over the longer term. Home [...]

New Home Sales Highest Since 2006

New home sales for August came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,011,000 units. This was above expectations depending on who you were asking. The August figures from Census put U.S. new home sales up 4.8 percent from July, and up a whopping 43.2 percent from August 2019. New home sales were at the highest levels since 2006. Previous months were also revised higher. The median price of a new home in August was $312,800. The average price came in at $369,000. Both figures are lower than prices for July and down [...]

Denton Texas Employment Rebounds, But More Assistance Needed

Denton Texas employment levels continued to rebound in June, but it is obvious more state and federal assistance will be needed to weather the Covid-related job losses. Yesterday Texas reported the 3rd consecutive day of triple digit fatalities and a record high single day death toll of 174 people. Denton County saw its largest one day spike in coronavirus cases during the pandemic. The recent spike in Covid cases and fatalities in the state of Texas has put Texas' economic reopening on hold. The start of the new school year is still a moving target [...]

Denton County Unemployment Spikes To 12.9% In April

Denton County unemployment hit 12.9 percent in April, and the City of Denton saw unemployment spike to 14.1 percent last month. For the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, unemployment rose to 12.8 percent in April. Those were the sobering statistics from the Texas Workforce Commission. The destruction to the North Texas labor force created by the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns is hard to grasp, because the United States hasn't experienced anything similar since the Great Depression. Even after the Great Recession in 2008 U.S. unemployment levels peaked around 10 percent. The May unemployment numbers for Denton County [...]

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