Housing Policy

housing policy

Media Narrative on Housing Shortage is Comically Absurd

The current media narrative on the U.S. housing shortage is comically absurd misdirection. Numerous experts in the industry continue to float the same tired narratives and misdirection while media mouthpieces nod in agreement. It's truly sad to watch. News segments offering up explanations of our housing affordability crisis look more like industry infomercials. According the Wall Street arm of the housing industry renting is the new American dream. Wall Street predators are just filling the gap, providing much-needed housing in a time of need. Just a few days ago our local CBS affiliate ran this [...]

Collateral Damage Coming to the North Texas Housing Market

Collateral damage in the North Texas housing market is beginning to reveal itself. Inflation is at a fresh 40-year high. Homes have never been more expensive, and interest rates are on the rise. Official consumer price inflation just printed at an annual pace of 7.9 percent. This is with many of the official CPI metrics understating actual inflation. This is also before the spike in global energy markets with the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine. While many housing industry pundits were clinging to the slight drop in mortgage rates last week, that blip is now a [...]

New Home Sales Fall as Rising Rates Temper Demand

New home sales fell in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 801,000 units. The previous three months were revised higher. Census Bureau estimates put new home sales 4.5 percent below the revised December numbers. New home sales were 19.3 percent lower than January of last year. The median price of a new home contracted in January was $423,300. The average sales price of a new home posted at $496,900. That was a new all-time high. Median and average new home prices both hit new record highs in North Texas in January. On [...]

Denton County Home Sales Slide Again As Inventory Double Dips

Denton County home sales are drying up as fast as the inventory. Closings in Denton County fell 7 percent last month. Pending sales were just slightly lower compared to the same time a year ago. The problem continues to be sky high prices and super low inventory. The median price of a home in Denton County hit a record high $415,000 last month. Average home prices fell slightly to $477,978, but they are still 21.5 percent higher than the same time a year ago. The number of homes for sale fell for a 4th consecutive [...]

Seasonality Returning to the Denton County Housing Market

Seasonality is returning to the Denton County housing market. Home sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in October. Closed sales were down 15 percent. Pending sales fell 9 percent from the same time a year ago. Home prices in Denton County are still overheated. Median prices were up 17.3 percent. The average price of a Denton County home was 22.6 percent higher compared to last year. While prices remained off their record highs seen in August, prices on a per square foot basis set new records. The median of $186 per square foot was [...]

New Home Sales Rise Slightly In August to 740,000 SAAR

New home sales for August posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 740,000 units. That was slightly better than expectations. New home sales were 1.5 percent higher for the month, but still down 24.3 percent from August of last year. The median price of a new home in August was $390,900. The average price checked in at $443,200. Census figures showed 6.1 months of new home inventory. Unadjusted figures show 6.2 months of supply. Anyone shopping for a new home understands those headline figures are complete bullocks. Looking into the composition of new [...]

North Texas Home Prices – A Bubble Begging To Be Burst

Jerome Powel and the Federal Reserve are creating another massive housing bubble. The bubble inflated even more in June as the Fed continued with $120 billion per month in asset purchases and the balance sheet hitting $8.1 trillion. The Fed's continued purchases ($40 billion per month) in the mortgage-backed securities market are utterly baffling considering the double-digit housing inflation numbers that keep piling up. So why is the Fed fanning the flames of asset inflation? Here's the primary reason... Lifestyles of the rich and famous Fed officials, most whom are millionaires themselves, are smart enough [...]

North Texas Home Prices Defy Fed’s Transitory Narrative

North Texas home prices continue to defy the Fed's transitory narrative. While Jerome Powell and various FOMC officials waffle back and forth on continued stimulus, DFW homes are becoming more unaffordable. NTREIS figures for April show the median price of a DFW home jumping 17.4 percent to a record $317,000. The average price of a North Texas home hit a new record of $397,582. That was a jump of 26.8 percent from the same time a year ago. Those numbers make a mockery of Powell's ridiculous 2 percent inflation targets over the longer term. Home [...]

Powell Inflating the Housing Market with Fed MBS Purchases

Pinocchio Powell has no answer as to why the Federal Reserve is still inflating the housing market with MBS purchases to the tune of $40 billion per month. Despite a ridiculously overheated housing market with no inventory and double-digit price increases the Federal Reserve is going to continue the purchase of mortgage-backed-securities.  The latest FOMC statement and press conference just confirmed more of the same from the Powell Fed. "Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. The path [...]

Insanity – Denton County Home Prices Go Parabolic

Denton County home prices went parabolic in March. The median price of a Denton County home rose 16 percent from March of last year. Average prices rose 23.5 percent to a new record of $448,566. The number of homes listed for sale in Denton County crashed 71 percent to only 976 properties. That translates to just 0.7 months of inventory at the current pace of sales. The March figures for closed sales show a 10 percent decrease from a year ago. That's despite a relatively easy year-over-year comparison when Covid put the brakes on the [...]

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