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Housing

Who Benefits From the Financialization of Housing and Build-to-Rent?

There are countless real estate industry professionals and consultants floating ridiculous narratives regarding single-family rentals and build-to-rent. This is as good a time as any to debunk the "we're filling a need" nonsense. What we're really taking about here is the financialization of housing and the Cantillon Effect. If you are connected to the build-to-rent industry and collect a paycheck from the financialization of single-family housing, okay. No problem with that. Want to ignore the data and look the other way. No problem. It's easy to do. Just don't expect a thinking public with working [...]

NAR: Existing Home Sales Rise Double Digits

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales for August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 6,000,000 units. That was up 2.4 percent from July numbers and a 10.5 percent increase from August of last year. According to NAR the median price of an existing home was $310,600 in August.  That's an increase of 11.4 percent from August 2019. The average price of an existing home jumped 8.8 percent from last year to $342,500. August was the 102nd straight month of year-over-year home price gains. Home price inflation is running well ahead [...]

Contracts For North Texas Home Purchases Still Shrinking

I have been monitoring the contracts for home purchases in the North Texas area since last week, and the numbers are not encouraging. The number of active option contract properties (listings where the home has gone under contract with a buyer option to back out) continues to shrink. This is not surprising considering the economic backdrop, but it also points to a more prolonged downturn than many in the real estate industry were expecting. Pending sales data for March will not be pretty, but the April data for North Texas home sales could be an [...]

Existing Home Sales Lowest In 3 Years With 4.1% September Drop

The National Association of Realtors reported the lowest levels for existing U.S. home sales in 3 years. Sales of existing homes posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5,115,000 for September, down from August numbers which were also revised lower. The year-over-year decline in existing home sales of 4.1 percent puts sales levels back to where they were three years ago. Existing home inventory at 1.88 million homes was up slightly from last year's 1.86 million units. NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, indicated that "higher interest rates have led to a decline in sales [...]

New Home Sales Climb In March With Lower Average Prices

The Census Bureau reported that new home sales in the United States climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 694,000 in March. This represents a sales increase of almost 9 percent compared to last year. Sales for January and February were also revised higher. The median price of a home sold in March was $337,200 while the average price of a new home contracted in March was $369,900 according to Census estimates. While the median price climbed in March, the average price of a new home in the United States declined by $14,500 [...]

December Jobs Growth Misses, Wage Growth Still Weak

Yesterday I was musing about the expected rise in inflation and bond yields that so many professional pundits and talking heads are expecting in 2018. That's the story being bantered about on various mainstream cable news puppet shows. Today we received another reality check on that "pent up demand" and overheating labor market story as the December Jobs Report painted a rather lackluster finish to 2017. The BLS Employment Situation showed an increase of 148,000 jobs in December. That's the good news from the establishment survey. The Household survey (Table A) showed an increase of [...]

Misguided Expectations For Inflation And Bond Yields In 2018

The Federal Reserve has proven they are devoid of credibility when it comes to their advertised mandates of full employment and price stability. What the Fed is good at is the same thing it has always been good at...blowing bubbles and serving the interests of Wall Street banks. Thus it should come as no surprise that many of the clueless PhD economists working for the Federal Reserve are calling for an uptick in inflation in 2018. You know, because the labor market is so "tight" and current inflation is still tepid. The Fed of course [...]

Mortgage Interest Deduction In Play, 2018 Housing Market Still Cloudy

The controversial mortgage interest deduction is still in play if you follow the back and forth in DC, and the picture for housing is still rather cloudy. There is a lot which could change depending on what Congress tries to ram through reconciliation in terms of the House and Senate tax sausage. Regardless of what Congress and the GOP approve, you can rest assured it won't stimulate job growth and it won't contribute to long-term economic growth. What we are seeing play out in the halls of DC and Wall Street right now is a [...]

Debt, Deficits & Housing – The Smoke & Mirrors “Recovery”

Many among the status quo have defended the last 8 years as a productive "recovery" from the abyss of financial armageddon unleashed by our criminal banking sector. The efficacy of the recovery depends on the person responding to the question. For the vast majority of the U.S. population, there has been no recovery, but instead a steady decline. If you have been paying attention to the early release of season 5 of 'House of Cards', speaking of the email data dump exposing our corrupt political machine for all to see, the reasons behind the phony [...]

New Home Sales Decline To 511,000 Annual Rate In March

The Census Bureau reported that new home sales for March declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000. This was below expectations of 522,000, but higher than March of last year. The median price of a new home contracted in March was $288,000, a YoY decline of $5,400. The average price of a new home contracted in March was $356,200, $3,500 more than March of 2015. New home sales have remained grounded as the Fed's "wealth effect" continues to diminish within the real economy. New home sales are still hovering around 1991 levels, due [...]

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