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Real Estate Market Bounces as Banking Crisis Fades

The real estate market bounced in March as turmoil in the banking sector subsided. Denton County home sales nearly doubled from the January lows, putting sales up 13 percent from a year ago. Pending contract edged up as well, placing contract activity 10 percent higher than March of last year. Some context is in order here since activity is still light compared to historical trend. This is largely due to diminished inventory levels. Denton County was still sitting on 1.8 months of supply in March. That's down from the 2.9 months we saw in October [...]

Denton County Housing Market – Calm Before the Storm?

The Denton County housing market experienced a temporary lift in the first two months of the year. February home sales bounced from the January lows putting them 15 percent higher than the same month last year. Pending sales were up 23 percent in February across Denton County. Median and average home prices bounced slightly during the month. The available supply of homes dipped to just 1.7 months. As more sellers and builders chopped prices in recent months, more buyers stepped back into the market. Percent of original list price has made marginal improvements for the past [...]

Price Drops and Lower Mortgage Rates Provided Temporary Lift to New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 units. This is old news, but more confirmation of what we have seen in the local North Texas housing market. The boost to new home sales at the end of 2022 and January of this year was the result of improved affordability. It was a confluence of several events. The key ingredients were as follows: Overly loose financial conditions with many Americans still sitting on excess savings Falling mortgage rates in December and January Significant price reductions from [...]

Higher Rates Coming Back for the North Texas Housing Market

The North Texas housing market started off the year with renewed animal spirits. It appears the Powell Fed made a colossal mistake by taking their foot off the breaks before inflation has been vanquished. We can already see signs of inflation percolating again in the housing market. The Fed Back to Where it Started The first FOMC meeting of 2023 revealed a huge blunder by the Powell Fed. As the markets ramped higher for the last month asset owners cheered that inflation had been conquered. Housing market participants reveled in the headlines of a coming [...]

New Home Sales Receive a Small Boost From Lower Prices and Rates

New home sales received a slight boost in December. The Census Bureau reported new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units. This was in line with expectations, but previous months were revised lower. The median price of a new home in the U.S. was $16,900 lower in December. Sales were also helped by mortgage rates dropping roughly half a percentage point. The supply of new homes dipped in December, but finished inventory continues to grow. There are now 1.4 months of completed new construction inventory in the U.S. There is plenty [...]

North Texas Housing Market Looks to Fed for Signs of Relief

The North Texas housing market continues to hope for a soft landing by the Fed. Agents and market participants continue to front-run a Fed pivot that hasn't happened. There are plenty of people in the real estate industry who want and need lower rates to bolster their business. Many of these same people are agents and levered speculators who feasted on the $trillions in stimulus that drove the markets to their bubble highs. Fortunately cooler heads are currently driving policy. Normalization in the housing market continues to trim some of the froth from the housing [...]

Demand Destruction Hitting Denton County Housing Market

Demand destruction continues to hit the Denton County housing market. The Federal Reserve's housing reset and tighter policy led to a 28 percent slide in home sales in November. Pending contracts for homes were down 24 percent from the same time a year ago. In reality sales numbers are softer than official estimates. We still have another 6 months or so before we'll see more accurate comparisons on sales totals with new construction sales consistently in the MLS. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications are still running about 40 percent lower than [...]

Census Overestimates October New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 units. Take the headline sales number with a huge grain of salt. The Census numbers are notorious for monthly revisions. It's reasonable to expect the October sales estimate will receive a haircut.  Census estimates are obviously not capturing the spiking cancellation rates of home builders. The October estimate also does not fit with numbers builders have been reporting on actual sales in the latest quarter. The attached chart comparing Census estimates for sales vs the October spike in [...]

Denton County Housing Market Correction Continues

The Denton County housing market correction continues to evolve. October home closings fell 22 percent year-over year. Pending sales were down by a similar amount. The housing market reset continues to take shape across North Texas as inflated home prices crumble under the weight of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Six and seven percent mortgage rates have proven to be too much for a housing market that ran up too far too fast during the pandemic. Median home prices in Denton County continue to cool. Median home prices are down about $45,000 from the spring [...]

New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

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