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Denton County Housing Market Correction Continues

The Denton County housing market correction continues to evolve. October home closings fell 22 percent year-over year. Pending sales were down by a similar amount. The housing market reset continues to take shape across North Texas as inflated home prices crumble under the weight of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. Six and seven percent mortgage rates have proven to be too much for a housing market that ran up too far too fast during the pandemic. Median home prices in Denton County continue to cool. Median home prices are down about $45,000 from the spring [...]

By |2022-11-18T23:11:28+00:00November 11th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy|0 Comments
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New Home Sales Are Weaker Than Census Estimates

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000 units. According to Census estimates new construction sales fell 10.9 percent from August, putting sales down 17.6 percent from last year. Sorry Census, but you're a little late to the party. New home sales are materially weaker than these official guestimates. We had a good indicator from the third largest builder in the country, PulteGroup which just reported earnings this week. Pulte posted a net decline in new home orders of 28 percent compared to last year. The [...]

By |2022-10-26T22:29:25+00:00October 26th, 2022|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx New Homes, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Markets, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate, Relocation|0 Comments
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North Texas Housing Market in Full-Blown Correction Mode

The North Texas housing market is now in full-blown correction mode. The Federal Reserve's housing market "reset" message is finally sinking in. Home sales volumes continue to slide. Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area continue to drop from their blow-off peaks earlier this year. Mortgage interest rates have spiked to seven percent, while the Fed puts the balance sheet roll-off into high gear. The correction in real estate prices has caused many of the larger asset owners, particularly those in the private equity space and the consultants who serve them, to lose their minds. [...]

By |2024-02-13T15:19:58+00:00October 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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Home Prices Are Falling – Time to Face Reality

North Texas home prices continued to fall in August. The post-pandemic housing bubble in the DFW area continues to deflate. The Fed is actively pushing for a housing reset. After facilitating reckless asset price inflation during the pandemic, taming inflation is now priority number one for the Powell Fed. Powell told us this week they will keep at it until the job is done. Denton County home sales were down 6 percent compared to August of last year. Pending sales slide even further, dropping 12 percent. With rates heading back toward 6 percent, activity and [...]

By |2022-09-15T14:19:47+00:00September 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton Tx New Homes, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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North Texas Housing Market – Summer of Denial

The North Texas housing market continued correcting in July. Closed sales were 15 percent lower for the DFW compared to July of last year. Pending contracts also slid lower by a corresponding amount. The median price of a home in the Dallas-Fort Worth market slipped to $389,000, up 16.1 percent year-over-year. Average prices in DFW dropped even more, sliding over $25,000 from the high in June. That may be the high for North Texas home prices for a few years depending on how this cycle plays out. The housing market correction has definitely been noticeable [...]

By |2022-08-10T21:38:28+00:00August 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Rent, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Homes For Lease, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates|0 Comments
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New Home Prices Drop Sharply as Sales Hit a Wall

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. This was below expectations. The three previous months were revised lower as well. New home sales in June were 8.1 percent lower than May and 17.4 percent lower than the same time last year. The median price of a new home dropped to $402,400. The average sales price posted at $456,800. Those were the lowest prices for 2022. Average new home prices just crashed 19.8 percent ($112,500) from the April blow-off top this year according to Census [...]

By |2022-07-28T16:47:39+00:00July 26th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales|0 Comments
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Denton County Home Inventory Piling Up as Housing Market Stalls

Home inventory in Denton County continues to pile up as the North Texas housing market stalls. The post-pandemic housing bubble is now popping under the pressure of dramatically higher mortgage rates and a lack of affordability. NTREIS figures show Denton County home sales fell 10 percent from June of last year. Pending sales declined roughly 8 percent year-over-year. The inventory of homes available for sale is up 80 percent from a year ago. With the decline in sales, months of inventory has spiked 90 percent from a year ago. Months of inventory for new construction [...]

By |2022-07-14T14:37:24+00:00July 9th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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Powell Fires Warning Shot at the Housing Market

This is a rough transcript of Jerome Powell's remarks on housing during this week's post-FOMC press conference. I apologize for any errors. Powell's remarks on housing come around the 1:51 mark toward the end of the press conference. See video below. It appears Jerome has finally figured out housing inflation is a serious headwind to the Fed's efforts to curtail raging inflation. It makes you wonder what they were looking at for the entirety of 2021 when the Powell Fed was pretending inflation was transitory. Question from Bankrate's Mark Hamrick: I Wonder what your assessment [...]

By |2022-06-16T21:18:02+00:00June 16th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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7 Tips for North Texas Home Sellers as the Housing Bubble Pops

Here are 7 tips for North Texas home sellers as the DFW housing bubble pops. The bond markets made another seismic shift last week with big implications for the housing market and home sellers. Mortgage interest rates are now close to six percent, and inventory is climbing quickly. Home sellers need to be aware of the huge shift in the housing market as the Fed normalizes policy. Tip # 1 – Acknowledge the bubble for what it is There are countless “experts” in the mortgage and real estate space who completely missed the tectonic shift [...]

By |2022-06-12T14:03:09+00:00June 12th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Markets, Monetary Policy|0 Comments
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Denton County Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

Denton County's pandemic-induced housing bubble is finally beginning to pop. The summer selling season has been met with rampant price chopping. Sellers are hitting the market and finding some big air pockets. My what a difference a few months can make! Home inventory continues to rise off the lows earlier this year. That has caught a number of home sellers and agents completely off guard. It shouldn't have. As I have been detailing for months, this shift and the coming correction were baked in the cake. What's amazing is that so many "experts" continue to [...]

By |2022-06-12T10:52:33+00:00June 10th, 2022|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Homes For Rent, Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County Property Taxes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Markets, Monetary Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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Aaron Layman Realtor Denton County Texas Questions? Call me now at
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