New Homes

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Why Home Builders Can’t Meet Housing Demand

America's home builders are having a difficult time meeting housing demand, or so they say. While access to credit is cited as a factor that is holding back builders, that's only a partial cause of builders' reluctance to put their money where their optimism index mouth is. As NAHB chief economist, Robert Dietz, explains it builders are finding it more difficult and expensive to develop land. Home builders should be thanking the The Federal Reserve for this warped, manipulated landscape, but most builders will likely avoid the discussion. The first rule of fight club is [...]

By | 2017-01-12T21:38:57+00:00 January 11th, 2017|Development, New Home Sales, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|1 Comment

Single-Family Permits Flat In October As Housing Starts Jump

Single-family permits fell flat in October. That's the news from today's Census numbers on October construction starts and permits. The unadjusted single-family permits data show 60,500 new single family permits for October 2016, virtually unchanged from last year's 60,300 print. Headline numbers for housing starts show a huge 23.3 percent YoY increase, and a 21.7 percent increase in single-family starts during October. Not seasonally adjusted, single-family starts rose almost 25 percent year-over-year. It certainly appears we will see more new home sales revisions in the months ahead. If homebuilders actually did put more inventory on [...]

Lennar Homes Sees Declining Deliveries & New Orders In Houston During Q2

Lennar Homes reported fiscal second quarter numbers this week. Although the company posted higher revenues and earnings for the quarter, Lennar's Houston numbers were a noticeable soft spot. As one of the Houston area's largest new home builders, Lennar is a good gauge for the overall strength of the Houston market. As one might expect, the local market for new homes is still facing the headwinds of weak employment growth and general economic weakness stemming from the downturn in the energy sector. For the second quarter, Lennar delivered 613 new homes at an average sale [...]

Census: New Home Sales Rise To 619,000 (SAAR) In April

The Census Bureau released another version of cartoon lunacy this morning with the April new home sales report. If we are to believe the government's ongoing collective work of fiction, New Residential Sales In April rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000. This would be fabulous news if it stands, but a 53 percent rise in the Northeast leads me to believe this is nothing more than election-year padding of the economic statistics. The latest data point for April new home sales certainly looks like an outlier. It looks even more dubious when [...]

Census: Permits & Starts For Single-Family Homes Rise In April

The Census Bureau reported housing starts and permits data for April, and the numbers show a slight rebound for the residential home construction market in April. Although multi-family activity declined during the month, the year-over-year comparisons for both starts and permits of single-family homes rose in April. YoY comparisons show that single-family starts rose 4.3 percent from April 2015, and permits increased by 8.4 percent compared to April 2015. The starts and permits activity for single-family homes in April is a bit surprising because the reality is that new homes are still extremely expensive when compared [...]

By | 2016-11-20T13:30:16+00:00 May 17th, 2016|Development, Economy, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

Hovnanian Reports Q1 Results, Announces Exit From “Frothy” San Francisco Market

Hovnanian Enterprieses (HOV) reported 2016 fiscal first quarter results today, posting a 29 percent increase in revenues and a net loss of $16.2 million. That was just part of the story for Hovnanian Enterprises. The more important news is that Hovnanian said it has exited the markets of San Francisco, Minneapolis and Raleigh, with plans to wind down operations in Tampa, FL and the San Francisco Bay area.  As far as actual performance results, Hovnanian's cancellation rate jumped from 18 percent last year to 21 percent in this most recent quarter. Hovnanian reported a 15.3 [...]

Census: New Home Sales Decline 5 Percent YoY In January To 494,000 (SAAR)

The Census new home sales report came in lighter than expected today. New Residential Sales In January 2016 posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 494,000. This was well shy of analysts estimates of 520,000 and 5.2 percent lower than January 2015. The median price of a new home in January 2016 was $278,800, a $13,200 drop from the median price last year. The average price of new home sold (contracted) in January was $365,700, a $9700 increase from the same time a year ago. The pricing mix of new homes in 2016 [...]

By | 2016-02-24T23:19:13+00:00 February 24th, 2016|Development, Markets, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

Toll Brothers Reports Fewer Deliveries, Lower Net Income In Q1 2016

Toll Brothers reported fiscal first quarter 2016 earnings this morning, and the results look like more stagnation for the luxury home builder. Deliveries were off 3 percent year-over-year while revenues climbed 9 percent on higher average prices. Toll saw signed contracts rise by 18 percent in the quarter, which is good considering that Toll's community count rose only slightly from 288 last year to 291 this year. What's not good is that both gross margins and income from operations fell during the quarter. Not surprisingly, Toll remains optimistic with their projections for the year. Toll [...]

By | 2016-02-23T16:51:33+00:00 February 23rd, 2016|Development, Economy, Markets, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

Beazer Homes Sees New Orders Fall 4.5 Percent Even With Higher Community Count

Beazer Homes has seen its stock tank almost 49 percent during the last 6 months, but the reality facing the Atlanta-based homebuilder seems to finally be sinking in with management. Beazer Homes, which reported a 4.5 percent decline in new home orders on a larger YoY community count, suggested the company was going remove some of their excess leverage as noted in remarks by CEO Allan Merrill: “We’re well positioned heading into the spring selling season, as demand patterns in January continue to point to a steady housing recovery in the coming year. At the [...]

By | 2016-02-06T18:45:09+00:00 February 4th, 2016|Development, Economy, Markets, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments

Taylor Morrison Sees Sluggish Home Sales In Q4 2015

Taylor Morrison Home Corp reported fourth quarter earnings today, and the numbers were tepid at best. The Arizona-based home builder reported home closing revenue that was 3 percent lower YoY. Profit and revenue were essentially supported by higher average sales prices and a much larger community count after Taylor Morrison's absorption of Darling. Taylor Morrison's average closed home price for the quarter was $452,000. Taylor Morrison's average community count was up 30 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. That makes the net sales orders increase of only 11 percent look pretty weak indeed. [...]

By | 2016-02-03T22:31:23+00:00 February 3rd, 2016|Development, Economy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Real Estate|0 Comments