Spin Cycle

spin cycle

Trump Administration Proposes 50-Year Mortgage

The Trump administration is working on a plan for a 50-year mortgage. The internet was abuzz this weekend when FHFA director William Pulte Jr. confirmed the rumor. The Federal Finance Housing Agency director suggested it would be a game changing moment for the housing market. President Trump floated the idea on his Truth Social account. The administration is floating the idea of a 50-year mortgage to stimulate a sluggish housing market. We should probably not be surprised by the idea of two wealthy real estate guys grasping at straws to stimulate home sales and credit [...]

Denton County “Home” Prices Finish 2023 Where They Started

Denton County home prices finished out the year right where they started. A strong start to 2023 saw prices and sales activity continue to move higher into the summer. That's when the Denton County housing market essentially stalled out. A subsequent rise in mortgage rates to the eight percent mark brought a double-dip in the market and another round of softness. The Yellen pump and the Powell pivot helped to lower rates slightly over the last two months of the year and prevent the market from sliding further. The official stats for Denton County in [...]

Who Benefits From the Financialization of Housing and Build-to-Rent?

There are countless real estate industry professionals and consultants floating ridiculous narratives regarding single-family rentals and build-to-rent. This is as good a time as any to debunk the "we're filling a need" nonsense. What we're really taking about here is the financialization of housing and the Cantillon Effect. If you are connected to the build-to-rent industry and collect a paycheck from the financialization of single-family housing, okay. No problem with that. Want to ignore the data and look the other way. No problem. It's easy to do. Just don't expect a thinking public with working [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Piling Up as Housing Market Stalls

Home inventory in Denton County continues to pile up as the North Texas housing market stalls. The post-pandemic housing bubble is now popping under the pressure of dramatically higher mortgage rates and a lack of affordability. NTREIS figures show Denton County home sales fell 10 percent from June of last year. Pending sales declined roughly 8 percent year-over-year. The inventory of homes available for sale is up 80 percent from a year ago. With the decline in sales, months of inventory has spiked 90 percent from a year ago. Months of inventory for new construction [...]

New Home Sales Improve Slightly With Lower Prices

New home sales improved in May...with some significantly lower prices. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 696,000 units. That was better than revised April numbers, but 5.9 percent lower than a year ago. The median sales price of a new house sold in May 2022 was $449,000. The average sales price was $511,400. That's a $58,100 drop from the average price in April. The seasonally adjusted months of inventory stood at 7.7 months of supply. It is worth noting that the supply of homes [...]

Powell Fires Warning Shot at the Housing Market

This is a rough transcript of Jerome Powell's remarks on housing during this week's post-FOMC press conference. I apologize for any errors. Powell's remarks on housing come around the 1:51 mark toward the end of the press conference. See video below. It appears Jerome has finally figured out housing inflation is a serious headwind to the Fed's efforts to curtail raging inflation. It makes you wonder what they were looking at for the entirety of 2021 when the Powell Fed was pretending inflation was transitory. Question from Bankrate's Mark Hamrick: I Wonder what your assessment [...]

Denton County Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

Denton County's pandemic-induced housing bubble is finally beginning to pop. The summer selling season has been met with rampant price chopping. Sellers are hitting the market and finding some big air pockets. My what a difference a few months can make! Home inventory continues to rise off the lows earlier this year. That has caught a number of home sellers and agents completely off guard. It shouldn't have. As I have been detailing for months, this shift and the coming correction were baked in the cake. What's amazing is that so many "experts" continue to [...]

Media Narrative on Housing Shortage is Comically Absurd

The current media narrative on the U.S. housing shortage is comically absurd misdirection. Numerous experts in the industry continue to float the same tired narratives and misdirection while media mouthpieces nod in agreement. It's truly sad to watch. News segments offering up explanations of our housing affordability crisis look more like industry infomercials. According the Wall Street arm of the housing industry renting is the new American dream. Wall Street predators are just filling the gap, providing much-needed housing in a time of need. Just a few days ago our local CBS affiliate ran this [...]

New Home Sales Rise in December, But Headwinds Mounting

New home sales were a bit better than expected in December. The Census Bureau reported new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 811,000 units. Previous months were revised lower. The median price of new home came in at $377,700. The average price of new construction contracted in December was $457,300. New home sales are still suffering from supply constraints. Completed inventory remains very low while the number of units technically for sale remains very high. Looking at unadjusted numbers out of the 408,000 homes "for sale" at the end of December [...]

Zillow Puts the Brakes on Cash Offers for Remainder of Year

Zillow has hit the pause button on buying homes in the U.S. Zillow reportedly has halted cash purchases of homes through the remainder of the year. Citing labor and supply shortages, the company says it just can't keep up with demand as it works through a backlog of homes it has to close on, renovate and sell. Zillow's chief operating officer phrased it like this. “We’re operating within a labor-and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces.” Interestingly, other iBuyers like Opendoor, Offerpad and Redfin have [...]

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