Economy

High End Dallas-Fort Worth Real Estate Could Get Crushed

As I detailed yesterday, the Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market fell out of bed last month. With pending home sales registered to post some of the worst numbers in years and inventory marching higher across the Dallas Fort Worth area, it is painfully clear that that the real economy in the DFW area is more fragile than the sell-side pundits would have us believe. I'm not surprised, because I cover the hype and spin in the real estate sector regularly on this blog. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb specifically [...]

October Swoon Suggests Denton County Real Estate Market Correction Just Getting Started

Denton County's real estate market is going to post some very soft numbers again for October. Both closed and pending home sales are going to be down year-over-year while pending home sales are likely going to post a double-digit decline not just in Denton County, but for the entire Dallas-Fort Worth housing market. OUCH! Available home inventory is shooting higher across the DFW area. While notable economists at the Federal Reserve, local real estate "professionals" and even the "experts" at the RECenter at Texas A&M have been dismissing recent developments as just a cooling off [...]

Existing Home Sales Lowest In 3 Years With 4.1% September Drop

The National Association of Realtors reported the lowest levels for existing U.S. home sales in 3 years. Sales of existing homes posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5,115,000 for September, down from August numbers which were also revised lower. The year-over-year decline in existing home sales of 4.1 percent puts sales levels back to where they were three years ago. Existing home inventory at 1.88 million homes was up slightly from last year's 1.86 million units. NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, indicated that "higher interest rates have led to a decline in sales [...]

Existing Home Sales Soften As New Home Permits Stall

Today the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales for August came in flat from last month, actually down about 1.5% from this time last year. The median price of an existing home sold in the U.S. during the month of August posted at $264,800, a rise of 4.6 percent year-over-year and the 78th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. According to NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, "homes continue to fly off the shelves" with most properties selling within a month. The supply of existing homes in the United States rose to 4.3 [...]

10 Years After The Housing Crash, Dallas-Fort Worth Experiencing Consequences Of Policy Failures

10 years after the housing crash and the Great Recession that nearly brought the world economy to its knees, the adults in the room are still pretending that everything is normal. If you read the Dallas Morning News and the spin of many professional economists, the DFW real estate market has emerged from the wreckage 10 years ago relatively unscathed. With DFW home prices at record highs, most housing pundits are eager to suggest everything is awesome. Apparently the recent rise in home inventories is just blip in an otherwise normalization of the formerly red [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Climbs 17% As Sales Stagnate

The supply of homes for sale in Denton County TX continues to climb, even as area home sales stagnate. Recent data point to a 17 percent increase in the number of homes available for sale in Denton County compared to this time last year.  Home inventory in nearby Collin County is 21 percent higher than August of last year. Other major metro U.S. markets are seeing home inventory increase by as much as 90 percent. This was an inevitable point in the latest housing market cycle, for reasons that were obvious to anyone paying attention. [...]

Look For Dallas Fort Worth Employment Engine To Cool

The Dallas Fort Worth employment engine could be cooling off after consecutive years of impressive growth. The latest numbers from the Texas Workforce Commission were still solid for July, reflective of the typical summer turnover, but there are headwinds now blowing against DFW job sector growth. Dallas Fed economists have miraculously figured out that previous employment growth projections for Texas were probably overstated. They have since dialed back their job growth forecast to 2.7%, down from the previous forecast of 3.0% released just last month. While it may catch many local economists off guard, the [...]

Denton TX Home Sales Hit The Breaks In July

Denton TX home sales hit the breaks in July. It would appear that the summer selling season peaked a little sooner than normal in the Denton County area this year. It looks like both the city of Denton and the greater Denton County area saw home sales volume peak in June. Closed home sales in the city of Denton are off by 20 percent according to preliminary stats this morning. Pending home sales in Denton are off by 10 percent. Denton County looks like it will squeak out a 1 percent sales increase for July, [...]

By |2018-09-21T09:28:46+00:00August 12th, 2018|Denton TX Real Estate, Economy, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments

DFW Adds 10,000 Jobs In June, CPI Still Running Hot

The DFW area tacked on another 10,000 jobs during the month of June according to numbers released by the Texas Workforce Commission. That was more than a third of the 27,200 positions gained in Texas during the month. The unemployment rate for the Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington MSA posted a 3.8 percent, just slightly below the 3.9 percent figure at this time last year. Midland Texas still held the lowest unemployment rate in Texas at only 2.4 percent. While the Dallas area still posted solid job gains during the month of June, the unadjusted numbers show [...]

All Roads Still Point Toward Yield Curve Inversion

With the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization process set to kick into a higher gear next month, all roads still point toward a yield curve inversion. While govt officials and the Fed's pie-in-the-sky economists continue to was about a robust economy with unemployment levels hovering near cycle lows, there are some widening cracks appearing in the global QE Ponzi scheme. Yesterday the Fed found some "widespread and critical deficiencies" in Deutsche Bank's capital planning controls. You don't say! The stock of Germany's largest bank, a toxic time bomb of opaque derivatives, continues to plumb news [...]

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