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Stagnating Home Sales, Mortgage Rates & Job Growth But The Fed Only Has Eyes For Wall Street

Home sales are stagnating, mortgage rates are falling and job growth is now waning. What's not to love? Today's nonfarm payrolls report was a resounding thud with only 75,000 jobs added in May. Previous months were revised downward as well. Everywhere you look, cracks are beginning to appear in the carefully varnished edifice the Federal Reserve likes to call an economy. Maybe this is why there were 13 Federal Reserve officials hitting the airwaves this week to talk up their most favored metric of economic validation, the U.S. stock market. Earlier in the week we [...]

By |2019-07-20T19:47:45+00:00June 7th, 2019|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Denton County Employment Growth Still Solid, Why Are Home Sales Stagnating?

Denton County employment growth is still humming along. The Dallas-Fort Worth area continues to add jobs. Even with the job growth, home price gains in the DFW area continue to slow. This is confirmed in the recent numbers from Case-Shiller. Along with many professional PhD economists, the Case-Shiller committee seems to be puzzled that the housing market isn't firing on all cylinders given the recent plunge in mortgage interest rates. "Given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better." Even Freddie Mac's deputy chief economist seems to be perplexed that the housing market isn't [...]

By |2020-03-28T14:39:06+00:00May 31st, 2019|Dallas Tx Employment, Denton County Employment, Denton County Relocation, DFW Employment, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Education, Housing Market, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Pending Home Sales, Politics, Relocation, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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New Home Sales Jump 7 Percent In April But Momentum Is Fading

The Census Bureau reported new home sales in April which rose 7 percent compared to the same time a year ago. Sales (contract signings) for April posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000 units. This was close to expectations, but interestingly the April figure represented a rather large 7 percent drop from revised March numbers. The sales numbers for the previous three months were revised higher. The median price of a new home rose in April to $342,200, while the average price of a new home contracted in April rose to $393700. This [...]

By |2020-03-28T14:39:38+00:00May 23rd, 2019|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Existing Home Sales, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Politics, Regulation, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Texas Realtors Pay Over $6 Million For Bogus Research At A&M RECenter

"The first rule of fight club is: You do not talk about fight club." Texas Realtors continue to throw money at bogus research at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. Many Texas Realtors probably don't even know that a portion of their annual licensing dues goes to pay the salaries of the staff at the RECenter. Many are probably unaware of how they are being shortchanged by this Texas institution which is still partnering with the Federal Reserve when it comes to economic research. That is a shame, because the garbage being produced by the [...]

By |2019-05-14T15:52:53+00:00May 14th, 2019|Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Policy, Politics, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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DFW Contract Activity Cools In April As Stimulus From Lower Rates Fades

DFW contract activity faded in April. Looking at the preliminary sales data for North Texas, it is apparent that the stimulus from the big drop in mortgage rates has run its course. It will be another week or so before we get the official press release numbers, but the data is telling. April was another good month for home sales. Actual closings for home sales showed a robust real estate market in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but contract signings were another matter. Preliminary sales data indicate that the DFW real estate market is peaking prematurely [...]

By |2020-09-22T15:46:20+00:00May 1st, 2019|Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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Denton County New Home Sales Spring To Life In March

Denton County new home sales are enjoying a spring revival courtesy of lower mortgage interest rates. Preliminary March data for North Texas shows that home sales rebounded in March, with new home sales driving the action. Buyers were obviously lured off the fence in the DFW area when it came to buying new homes. It also helped that new home builders were keeping price points lower. The average price of new homes in Dallas-Fort Worth still shows to be softening. Pending sales data for March looks a bit weaker than closings, so it will be [...]

By |2020-06-07T03:28:17+00:00April 2nd, 2019|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, DFW Home Prices, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Caveman Powell Looking To Levitate Stock, Housing Bubbles

Yesterday the Federal Reserve yelped like a whipped puppy as Jerome Powell turned into the latest iteration of his market-dependent Bernanke/Yellen/Greenspan predecessors. If you remember, Mr. Powell was here in the DFW area back in November playing up the fabulous state of the U.S economy and the Fed's wonderful policies. At the time expectations were that the Fed would be raising the Federal Funds rate four more times this year with a balance sheet reduction schedule that was supposedly on "autopilot" to the tune of $50 billion per month rolling off. Flash forward one quarter [...]

By |2019-01-31T17:05:05+00:00January 31st, 2019|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate, Video|0 Comments
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October New Home Sales Collapse, Near Three-Year Low

The Census Bureau numbers for October new home sales posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 544,000 units. This was way below expectations of a 575,000 print, and near a three-year low. As I have been detailing for much of the year, much of that "pent-up demand" that you hear real estate industry mouthpieces talking about is a giant work of fiction, a tired marketing ploy that the media, economists and Realtors have been using in attempt to justify grossly inflated home prices across the U.S. Well, it appears the cat is officially [...]

By |2022-01-05T03:36:33+00:00November 28th, 2018|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Politics, Texas Real Estate|2 Comments
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Jerome Powell Visits Dallas Fed – Global Perspectives In Oblivion

Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, visited the Dallas Federal Reserve yesterday to cap the Dallas bank's Global Perspectives series. Aside from pontificating about global economic perspectives, the meeting between Robert Kaplan and Jerome Powell was insightful for many reasons. Kaplan reminded the audience of Powell's policy experience which includes time as partner at private equity firm the Carlyle Group. Listening to a Goldman Sachs alum toss softball questions to a Carlyle alum is one way, I suppose, to placate a concerned public that the economy is still healthy and the Fed is on the ball, [...]

By |2022-01-05T03:36:55+00:00November 15th, 2018|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Real Estate, Spin Cycle|1 Comment
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Hoisington Q3 Update – Deflationary Wave Of Debt Will Stifle Yields

The deflationary wave of debt growing within multiple facets of the U.S. economy will stifle yields. That's the gist of Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt's latest third quarter Review and Outlook. As the market was puking on the latest surge in Treasury yields above 3%, I couldn't help but notice that the publicly traded homebuilders were getting crushed yet again. With the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate touching 4.9 percent this week (levels not seen in 7 years), things were getting even uglier for the housing sector. There was nowhere to hide this week if [...]

By |2020-09-22T15:48:11+00:00October 13th, 2018|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Mortgages, New Home Sales, Politics, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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