Mortgage Rates

New Home Prices Drop Sharply as Sales Hit a Wall

The Census Bureau reported new home sales for June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. This was below expectations. The three previous months were revised lower as well. New home sales in June were 8.1 percent lower than May and 17.4 percent lower than the same time last year. The median price of a new home dropped to $402,400. The average sales price posted at $456,800. Those were the lowest prices for 2022. Average new home prices just crashed 19.8 percent ($112,500) from the April blow-off top this year according to Census [...]

Denton County Home Inventory Piling Up as Housing Market Stalls

Home inventory in Denton County continues to pile up as the North Texas housing market stalls. The post-pandemic housing bubble is now popping under the pressure of dramatically higher mortgage rates and a lack of affordability. NTREIS figures show Denton County home sales fell 10 percent from June of last year. Pending sales declined roughly 8 percent year-over-year. The inventory of homes available for sale is up 80 percent from a year ago. With the decline in sales, months of inventory has spiked 90 percent from a year ago. Months of inventory for new construction [...]

Powell Fires Warning Shot at the Housing Market

This is a rough transcript of Jerome Powell's remarks on housing during this week's post-FOMC press conference. I apologize for any errors. Powell's remarks on housing come around the 1:51 mark toward the end of the press conference. See video below. It appears Jerome has finally figured out housing inflation is a serious headwind to the Fed's efforts to curtail raging inflation. It makes you wonder what they were looking at for the entirety of 2021 when the Powell Fed was pretending inflation was transitory. Question from Bankrate's Mark Hamrick: I Wonder what your assessment [...]

7 Tips for North Texas Home Sellers as the Housing Bubble Pops

Here are 7 tips for North Texas home sellers as the DFW housing bubble pops. The bond markets made another seismic shift last week with big implications for the housing market and home sellers. Mortgage interest rates are now close to six percent, and inventory is climbing quickly. Home sellers need to be aware of the huge shift in the housing market as the Fed normalizes policy. Tip # 1 – Acknowledge the bubble for what it is There are countless “experts” in the mortgage and real estate space who completely missed the tectonic shift [...]

Denton County Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

Denton County's pandemic-induced housing bubble is finally beginning to pop. The summer selling season has been met with rampant price chopping. Sellers are hitting the market and finding some big air pockets. My what a difference a few months can make! Home inventory continues to rise off the lows earlier this year. That has caught a number of home sellers and agents completely off guard. It shouldn't have. As I have been detailing for months, this shift and the coming correction were baked in the cake. What's amazing is that so many "experts" continue to [...]

New Home Sales Plunge with Affordability Concerns

New home sales took a serious nosedive in April. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for April at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 591,000. That was way below consensus estimates and a 16.6 percent slide from the March figure.  New home sales were down 26.9 percent from April of last year. Previous months' estimates were also revised lower. The following two charts help explain why the consensus has been oblivious to what's really happening. Something was bound to give, and it finally did. In layman's terms, new homes are no longer affordable [...]

North Texas Housing Market Looks Like A Bubble

The North Texas housing market is looking like a bubble waiting to burst. Home prices continued to melt up in April. Median and average home prices hit new all-time highs across the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The median home price in Denton County hit a new record high of $480,000, an increase of 22.9 percent from last year. Average prices hit $577,607. That was up 25.1 percent year-over-year. The melt-up in prices is pretty astounding considering mortgage interest rates are now solidly above 5 percent. Monthly payments for a prospective home buyer in North Texas have [...]

Fed Hikes Rates 50 Basis Points, Punts Balance Sheet Reduction to June 1st

The Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds rate to a range of 0.75-1.00 percent. The 50 basis-point rate hike was largely expected. Powell shot down any talk of a 75 basis-point hike. Jerome Powell also announced that balance sheet reduction would begin June 1st. The FOMC statement. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support [...]

Denton County Home Buyers Front-Run Rate Hikes Sending Prices Soaring

Fear of missing out (FOMO) was the theme last month in Denton County Texas as home buyers behaved like irrational humans often do. Buyers jumped into the local housing market front-running the coming Federal Reserve rate hikes. Home prices shattered records as a result. The median price of home rose 25.3% year-over-year to a record $464,000. Average prices rose 23.6% to a record high $554,098. Closed sales were roughly flat compared to last year. That's a testament to how frenzied the activity was given the current backdrop of spiraling interest rates. Pending sales (contracts) fell 10 [...]

Mortgage Rates Breach 5% Mark After Brainard Speech

U.S. mortgage rates breached the critical 5 percent level today. Prepared remarks from FOMC dove Lael Brainard spooked the markets into a tailspin sending yields on the 10-year Treasury above 2.56 percent. Average mortgage interest rates quoted from Mortgage News Daily spiked to 5.02 percent. This is the first time rates have been this high since 2018. You may remember that the fourth quarter of 2018 also saw the stock market and real estate markets come unglued before the Fed stepped in to intervene. Unfortunately for real estate bulls, this time is different. Instead of [...]

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