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Housing Policy

housing policy

Contracts For North Texas Home Purchases Still Shrinking

I have been monitoring the contracts for home purchases in the North Texas area since last week, and the numbers are not encouraging. The number of active option contract properties (listings where the home has gone under contract with a buyer option to back out) continues to shrink. This is not surprising considering the economic backdrop, but it also points to a more prolonged downturn than many in the real estate industry were expecting. Pending sales data for March will not be pretty, but the April data for North Texas home sales could be an [...]

By |2020-09-22T15:45:59+00:00April 3rd, 2020|Denton County Homes For Sale, Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Homes For Sale, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Employment, DFW Homes For Sale, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Employment, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Politics, Relocation, Texas Employment|0 Comments
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October New Home Sales Rise On Easy Comparison

On the surface, the Census Bureau's 31.6% year-over-year increase in new home sales for October looks spectacular. To put it in context, however, new home sales are simply responding to the Federal Reserve's market interventions and that spectacular plunge in mortgage interest rates providing a very easy year-over-year comparison. On a monthly basis, new home sales dipped about one percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 units. The longer term view shows new home sales still rising on a steady path out of the abyss. Along with the big drop in [...]

By |2019-11-30T12:19:44+00:00November 30th, 2019|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton County Relocation, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales|0 Comments
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NAR: Existing Home Sales Up 3.9% In September

The National Association of Realtors reported a 3.9% increase in existing home sales for the month of September. Home sales in the South region were reportedly up 6 percent according to NAR, and this is reflective of what we saw in the North Texas housing market last month. The big year-over-drop in rates pushed both home sales and prices higher last month. According to NAR the median price of an existing U.S. home increased 5.9% in September. The average price of a U.S. home at $308,500 was higher by 4.2%. Months of supply stood at [...]

By |2019-10-22T16:58:41+00:00October 22nd, 2019|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Existing Home Sales, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Real Estate, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Stagnating Home Sales, Mortgage Rates & Job Growth But The Fed Only Has Eyes For Wall Street

Home sales are stagnating, mortgage rates are falling and job growth is now waning. What's not to love? Today's nonfarm payrolls report was a resounding thud with only 75,000 jobs added in May. Previous months were revised downward as well. Everywhere you look, cracks are beginning to appear in the carefully varnished edifice the Federal Reserve likes to call an economy. Maybe this is why there were 13 Federal Reserve officials hitting the airwaves this week to talk up their most favored metric of economic validation, the U.S. stock market. Earlier in the week we [...]

By |2019-07-20T19:47:45+00:00June 7th, 2019|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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New Home Sales Jump 7 Percent In April But Momentum Is Fading

The Census Bureau reported new home sales in April which rose 7 percent compared to the same time a year ago. Sales (contract signings) for April posted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000 units. This was close to expectations, but interestingly the April figure represented a rather large 7 percent drop from revised March numbers. The sales numbers for the previous three months were revised higher. The median price of a new home rose in April to $342,200, while the average price of a new home contracted in April rose to $393700. This [...]

By |2020-03-28T14:39:38+00:00May 23rd, 2019|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Existing Home Sales, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales, Politics, Regulation, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Home Builder Confidence Not Confirmed By Housing Starts & Permits Data

This week the National Association of Home Builders reported improved confidence and business conditions among new home builders. With the big drop in mortgage interest rates, builders have been enjoying solid sales so far in 2019. NAHB chairman, Greg Ugalde, even said as much... “Builders are busy catching up after a wet winter and many characterize sales as solid, driven by improved demand and ongoing low overall supply...However, affordability challenges persist and remain a big impediment to stronger sales.” With mortgage rates just above 4 percent, the year-over-year interest rate comparisons are very favorable for [...]

By |2020-03-28T14:39:58+00:00May 16th, 2019|Denton County New Homes, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx New Homes, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW New Homes, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Market, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Texas Realtors Pay Over $6 Million For Bogus Research At A&M RECenter

"The first rule of fight club is: You do not talk about fight club." Texas Realtors continue to throw money at bogus research at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. Many Texas Realtors probably don't even know that a portion of their annual licensing dues goes to pay the salaries of the staff at the RECenter. Many are probably unaware of how they are being shortchanged by this Texas institution which is still partnering with the Federal Reserve when it comes to economic research. That is a shame, because the garbage being produced by the [...]

By |2019-05-14T15:52:53+00:00May 14th, 2019|Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Policy, Politics, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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DFW Contract Activity Cools In April As Stimulus From Lower Rates Fades

DFW contract activity faded in April. Looking at the preliminary sales data for North Texas, it is apparent that the stimulus from the big drop in mortgage rates has run its course. It will be another week or so before we get the official press release numbers, but the data is telling. April was another good month for home sales. Actual closings for home sales showed a robust real estate market in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but contract signings were another matter. Preliminary sales data indicate that the DFW real estate market is peaking prematurely [...]

By |2020-09-22T15:46:20+00:00May 1st, 2019|Dallas Tx Home Prices, Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, DFW Relocation, Economy, Housing Policy, Mortgage Rates, Politics, Spin Cycle|0 Comments
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Fed Says No Rate Hikes In 2019, Balance Sheet Drawdown Ending In September

The Jerome Powell cave is now a comical farce. Aside from using the word "patient" about 30 times in the March FOMC statement, Jerome Powell told us the Fed does not expect to hike interest rates at all in 2019. To top things off, the Fed balance sheet that was on autopilot at the end of last year will now end this September. In terms of the Fed's projections for the economy, growth was revised down and the unemployment rate was revised up slightly. "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation [...]

By |2019-03-22T00:46:54+00:00March 21st, 2019|Denton County Real Estate, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Real Estate, Economy, Housing Policy, Markets, Mortgage Rates, Spin Cycle, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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Shadow Bank Lending, Rising Debt To Income Ratios Fueling Denton County Home Price Growth

Shadow banks, or nonbanks as they are often called, continue to dominate the mortgage space in the real estate echo bubble. This is the case in Denton County Texas and all across the country. Since 2008 the share of mortgage originations by nonbanks has more than doubled, rising from 24% in 2008 to 54% in 0217. The share of mortgages issued by traditional large banks continue to decline. As home prices rose throughout Denton County, the quality of the mortgages originated during this boom began deteriorating. Last year the deterioration in mortgage quality was pronounced. [...]

By |2019-02-28T23:11:31+00:00February 28th, 2019|Denton County Home Prices, Denton County Real Estate, Denton Tx Home Prices, Denton TX Real Estate, DFW Home Prices, DFW Real Estate, Housing Market, Housing Policy, In the Press, Mortgage Rates, Mortgages, Regulation, Texas Real Estate|0 Comments
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